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Proposed Districts & 2000-2008 Team information shown:
1 |
L.C. Bird |
91.7 |
85 |
21 |
0.802 |
3,014 |
1,155 |
Dominion |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,859 |
1.25 |
1 |
S |
Play 6 District Games (South A) |
2 |
Thomas Dale |
81.2 |
65 |
31 |
0.677 |
2,308 |
1,367 |
Central |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
2,183 |
0.95 |
4 |
S |
Play 1 Game against North A District Team |
3 |
Meadowbrook |
77.2 |
65 |
36 |
0.644 |
2,441 |
1,625 |
Central |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,737 |
1.12 |
5 |
S |
Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team |
4 |
Manchester |
74.8 |
54 |
35 |
0.607 |
2,103 |
1,487 |
Dominion |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
2,314 |
0.83 |
7 |
S |
Play 2 Bonus Games |
5 |
Matoaca |
72.6 |
68 |
31 |
0.687 |
3,011 |
1,970 |
Central |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,320 |
1.34 |
9 |
S |
|
6 |
Monacan |
67.7 |
49 |
43 |
0.533 |
1,802 |
1,728 |
Dominion |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,611 |
1.03 |
12 |
S |
|
7 |
James River(C) |
61.5 |
40 |
51 |
0.440 |
1,647 |
2,081 |
Dominion |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,785 |
0.80 |
17 |
S |
|
|
1 |
Varina |
90.7 |
87 |
14 |
0.861 |
3,429 |
1,168 |
Capital |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,795 |
1.27 |
2 |
N |
Play 6 District Games (North A) |
2 |
Highland Springs |
81.3 |
75 |
23 |
0.765 |
3,020 |
1,298 |
Capital |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,582 |
1.23 |
3 |
N |
Play 1 Game against South A District Team |
3 |
Hermitage |
75.4 |
70 |
24 |
0.745 |
3,228 |
1,247 |
Colonial |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,986 |
1.12 |
6 |
N |
Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team |
4 |
Patrick Henry(A) |
74.2 |
74 |
24 |
0.755 |
2,998 |
1,367 |
Colonial |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,497 |
1.40 |
5 |
N |
Play 2 Bonus Games |
5 |
Mills Godwin |
71.9 |
54 |
29 |
0.651 |
2,077 |
1,456 |
Colonial |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,898 |
1.02 |
7 |
N |
|
6 |
Deep Run |
66.4 |
41 |
23 |
0.641 |
1,652 |
1,147 |
Colonial |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,498 |
1.14 |
12 |
N |
|
7 |
Hanover |
54.6 |
24 |
42 |
0.364 |
971 |
1,532 |
Capital |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,200 |
1.01 |
22 |
N |
|
|
1 |
Hopewell |
69.2 |
55 |
44 |
0.556 |
2,143 |
2,012 |
Central |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
993 |
1.53 |
11 |
S |
Play 6 District Games (South B) |
2 |
Powhatan |
67.2 |
87 |
22 |
0.798 |
3,430 |
1,419 |
Southside |
4 |
AA |
I |
1,385 |
1.34 |
- |
S |
Play 1 Game against North B District Team |
3 |
Clover Hill |
65.6 |
44 |
46 |
0.489 |
1,830 |
1,891 |
Dominion |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,863 |
0.89 |
15 |
S |
Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team |
4 |
Midlothian |
57.5 |
34 |
53 |
0.391 |
1,092 |
1,892 |
Dominion |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,644 |
0.90 |
19 |
S |
Play 2 Bonus Games |
5 |
Dinwiddie |
55.7 |
41 |
57 |
0.418 |
2,187 |
2,696 |
Central |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,390 |
0.98 |
21 |
S |
|
7 |
Cosby(C) |
52.6 |
11 |
12 |
0.478 |
540 |
437 |
Dominion |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,317 |
0.82 |
24 |
S |
|
6 |
Prince George |
52.0 |
27 |
62 |
0.303 |
1,426 |
2,288 |
Central |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,316 |
0.92 |
25 |
S |
|
|
1 |
Lee-Davis |
61.6 |
41 |
48 |
0.461 |
1,932 |
2,045 |
Capital |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,544 |
0.94 |
16 |
N |
Play 5 District Games (North B) |
2 |
Douglas Freeman |
57.1 |
41 |
49 |
0.456 |
1,806 |
1,935 |
Colonial |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,557 |
0.89 |
20 |
N |
Play 1 Game against South B District Team |
3 |
Henrico |
53.2 |
32 |
58 |
0.356 |
1,543 |
2,102 |
Capital |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,562 |
0.84 |
23 |
N |
Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team |
4 |
Atlee |
50.0 |
27 |
59 |
0.314 |
1,158 |
2,367 |
Capital |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,515 |
0.80 |
26 |
N |
Play 3 Bonus Games |
5 |
J.R. Tucker |
44.1 |
20 |
58 |
0.256 |
1,237 |
2,250 |
Colonial |
6 |
AAA |
Central |
1,562 |
0.65 |
28 |
N |
|
6 |
New Henrico Co. School |
- |
- |
- |
|
- |
- |
- |
|
AAA |
Central |
- |
- | - |
N |
|
|
1 |
Huguenot |
65.6 |
48 |
46 |
0.511 |
2,186 |
1,851 |
Dominion |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,164 |
1.26 |
14 |
C |
Play 6 District Games (City) |
2 |
Petersburg |
60.7 |
43 |
49 |
0.467 |
1,934 |
1,742 |
Central |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,451 |
1.03 |
18 |
C |
Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team |
3 |
Colonial Heights |
47.0 |
26 |
63 |
0.292 |
1,366 |
2,467 |
Central |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
884 |
1.21 |
27 |
C |
Play 3 Bonus Games |
4 |
Armstrong |
43.9 |
28 |
60 |
0.318 |
1,199 |
2,263 |
Capital |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
977 |
1.04 |
29 |
C |
|
5 |
John Marshall |
41.4 |
24 |
65 |
0.270 |
1,208 |
2,657 |
Colonial |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
945 |
1.01 |
30 |
C |
|
6 |
George Wythe(R) |
37.6 |
12 |
76 |
0.136 |
1,003 |
2,762 |
Dominion |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
1,080 |
0.79 |
32 |
C |
|
7 |
Thomas Jefferson(R) |
27.3 |
6 |
78 |
0.071 |
716 |
3,587 |
Colonial |
5 |
AAA |
Central |
769 |
0.79 |
33 |
C |
|
|
District Averages 2000-2008 (Post Realignment ) |
South A |
75.2 |
61 |
36 |
0.627 |
2,332 |
1,630 |
|
|
|
Central |
1,830 |
1.05 |
|
North A |
73.5 |
61 |
26 |
0.683 |
2,482 |
1,316 |
|
|
|
Central |
1,637 |
1.17 |
|
South B |
60.0 |
43 |
42 |
0.490 |
1,807 |
1,805 |
|
|
|
Central |
1,421 |
1.05 |
|
North B |
53.2 |
32 |
54 |
0.369 |
1,535 |
2,140 |
|
|
|
Central |
1,548 |
0.82 |
|
City |
46.2 |
27 |
62 |
0.295 |
1,373 |
2,476 |
|
|
|
Central |
1,039 |
1.02 |
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Realignment Objectives/Notes :
- To keep districts organized around geographically compact units
- To create more compelling match ups, a more competitive balance between schools and more competitive districts.
- To create a flexible schedule program that will enable schools to choose more of their opponents rather than being locked into less challenging district schedules.
- To keep rivalry games constant, using bonus game scheduling if necessary. Bonus game scheduling means a team can choose any opponent for the bonus games.
- To improve the overall quality of play and improve the Central region's playoff performance.
- Extra travel costs could be subsidized by the extra week of playoffs ticket revenue.
- Reevaluate and adjust the districts every two years. If a "B" district team is dominating its district "B" competition, move it up to the "A" district at the reevaluation year.
Realignment Playoff Format :
- Extra round of playoff games will be added, like the Northern & Eastern regions.
- 8 Division 5 teams and 8 Division 6 teams qualify for playoffs.
- District winners get automatic playoff bid and first round home game, and the other 11 spots are selected by rating.
Suggested Non-Region Opponents :
Division 6
Battlefield, Bayside, Bethel, C.D. Hylton, Centreville, Chantilly, Forest Park, Frank Cox, Gar-Field, Herndon, Kellam, Lake Braddock, Landstown, Langley, Massaponax, Oakton, Ocean Lakes,
Osbourn, Oscar Smith, Salem(VB), South County, Tallwood, W.T. Woodson, West Potomac, West Springfield, Western Branch, Westfield, Woodbridge, Woodside.
Division 5
Albemarle, Brooke Point, Churchland, Fauquier, George Marshall, Great Bridge, Green Run, GW-Danville, Hampton, Heritage(NN), Indian River, James Madison, Kings Fork, Lake Taylor, Liberty(Beal),
Mount Vernon, Norcom, North Stafford, Norview, Phoebus, Potomac, Stone Bridge, Thomas Edison, Warwick, William Fleming, Yorktown.
Realignment Sample Schedules:
|
@ Varina |
District |
@ Matoaca |
Bonus |
Hanover |
District |
Highland Springs |
District |
@ Hermitage |
District |
@ Douglas Freeman |
Bonus |
Meadowbrook |
South A District |
Mills Godwin |
District |
Patrick Henry(A) |
District |
@ Landstown |
Non-Region |
|
|
@ Thomas Dale |
District |
Hopewell |
Bonus |
@ Manchester |
District |
Meadowbrook |
District |
@ Matoaca |
District |
Clover Hill |
Bonus |
Varina |
North A District |
@Monacan |
District |
James River(C) |
District |
@ Oscar Smith |
Non-Region |
|
|
@ Huguenot |
District |
Hopewell |
Bonus |
Petersburg |
District |
Armstrong |
District |
@ Colonial Heights |
District |
@ Douglas Freeman |
Bonus |
J.R. Tucker |
Bonus |
George Wythe(R) |
District |
@ Thomas Jefferson(R) |
District |
@ Heritage(NN) |
Non-Region |
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District Comparison: Current vs Realignment
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Currently the Central regions districts are ranked 11th,12th, 14th and 16th in Virginia. |
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After realignment the Central regions districts would be ranked 7th, 8th,15th, 16th, and 17th in Virginia. |
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|
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Current Division 5/6 Districts 2000-08 |
District |
Rk. |
Rating |
Stud. |
SER |
W |
L |
Pct |
Concorde |
1 |
92.2 |
2,488 |
0.96 |
437 |
246 |
0.640 |
Cardinal |
2 |
81.4 |
2,233 |
0.94 |
289 |
236 |
0.550 |
Beach |
3 |
79.2 |
2,104 |
0.96 |
511 |
513 |
0.499 |
Patriot |
4 |
78.6 |
2,263 |
0.89 |
311 |
374 |
0.454 |
Southeastern |
5 |
77.1 |
1,871 |
1.04 |
442 |
393 |
0.529 |
Peninsula |
6 |
75.7 |
1,826 |
1.05 |
499 |
462 |
0.519 |
Cedar Run |
7 |
71.8 |
2,055 |
0.89 |
257 |
297 |
0.464 |
Liberty |
8 |
69.1 |
1,713 |
1.01 |
367 |
384 |
0.489 |
Commonwealth |
9 |
67.2 |
1,757 |
0.96 |
337 |
322 |
0.511 |
Eastern |
10 |
65.7 |
1,633 |
1.00 |
333 |
406 |
0.451 |
Dominion |
11 |
64.8 |
1,699 |
0.95 |
377 |
383 |
0.496 |
Central |
12 |
64.5 |
1,427 |
1.11 |
390 |
373 |
0.511 |
Western Valley |
13 |
61.8 |
1,807 |
0.86 |
218 |
240 |
0.476 |
Capital |
14 |
61.2 |
1,445 |
1.04 |
326 |
330 |
0.497 |
National |
15 |
60.2 |
1,685 |
0.89 |
295 |
379 |
0.438 |
Colonial |
16 |
56.8 |
1,517 |
0.93 |
330 |
350 |
0.485 |
|
|
Realigned Division 5/6 Districts 2000-08 |
District |
Rk. |
Rating |
Stud. |
SER |
W |
L |
Pct |
Concorde |
1 |
92.2 |
2,488 |
0.96 |
437 |
246 |
0.640 |
Cardinal |
2 |
81.4 |
2,233 |
0.94 |
289 |
236 |
0.550 |
Beach |
3 |
79.2 |
2,104 |
0.96 |
511 |
513 |
0.499 |
Patriot |
4 |
78.6 |
2,263 |
0.89 |
311 |
374 |
0.454 |
Southeastern |
5 |
77.1 |
1,871 |
1.04 |
442 |
393 |
0.529 |
Peninsula |
6 |
75.7 |
1,826 |
1.05 |
499 |
462 |
0.519 |
South A |
7 |
75.2 |
1,830 |
1.05 |
426 |
248 |
0.632 |
North A |
8 |
73.5 |
1,637 |
1.17 |
425 |
179 |
0.704 |
Cedar Run |
9 |
71.8 |
2,055 |
0.89 |
257 |
297 |
0.464 |
Liberty |
10 |
69.1 |
1,713 |
1.01 |
367 |
384 |
0.489 |
Commonwealth |
11 |
67.2 |
1,757 |
0.96 |
337 |
322 |
0.511 |
Eastern |
12 |
65.7 |
1,633 |
1.00 |
333 |
406 |
0.451 |
Western Valley |
13 |
61.8 |
1,807 |
0.86 |
218 |
240 |
0.476 |
National |
14 |
60.2 |
1,685 |
0.89 |
295 |
379 |
0.438 |
South B |
15 |
60.0 |
1,421 |
1.05 |
299 |
296 |
0.502 |
North B |
16 |
53.2 |
1,548 |
0.82 |
161 |
272 |
0.372 |
City |
17 |
46.2 |
1,039 |
1.02 |
187 |
437 |
0.300 |
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Why doesn't The Central region win More state championships?
Since the VHSL adopted its current division format in in 1986 no Central region school has won the division 6 state championship and only 3 schools have won division 5 titles (2004 Meadowbrook
, 2003 Hopewell and 1994 Patrick Henry(A) ). That's 0 for 23 in D-6 and 3 for 23 in D-5. 3 titles in 46 chances, about 6%, despite the fact the region has about 25% of the teams in
these divisions.
I have identified these reasons why the Central region does not win more State championships.
- Central Region has Smaller Schools; The Central Region schools are on average 15%-20% smaller than schools in the other regions.
|
School Enrollments - 2008
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- Central Region plays weaker opponents and has less competitive schedules; The Central region Strength of Schedule(SOS) was 48.3 in 2007, while the Northern and Eastern
regions were near 60. That is a significant difference. It means that in 2007 the average Central region team played a team rated like Douglas Freeman every week while the Eastern and Northern
regions played a team rated like Huguenot every week. Over an entire season that difference adds up.
|
Team Strength of Schedule - 2007
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- Central Region has less quality playing time (QPT); By playing weaker less competitive schedules against much smaller schools Central region schools do not get as much
quality playing time. Since 2000 Hermitage is 31-2 vs Thomas Jefferson(R) , John Marshall and J.R. Tucker, Lee-Davis outscoring these four teams by an average score of 47-8.
These games do not represent four quarters of quality playing time (QPT).
By the time Hermitage got to last years D-6 semi-final game against Woodbridge they had played 10-15 quarters less of QPT than Woodbridge.
That's 25%-30% less QPT than Woodbridge.
The problem only gets worse as the other regions add an additional playoff game and get more quality playing time.
|
Point Differential in District Games (2000-08)
|
- Central Region starts the season later and plays a shorter season; Usually the other regions start the season one week earlier and the Northern and Eastern regions have
an extra round of playoff games. This gives those teams another quality opponent to improve.
- Central Region scheduling and current district format doesn't allow for teams to reach maximum potential.
- Other possible factors; Tradition, youth leagues, student transfer policies, coaching, and socioeconomic factors.
Key : Rating=VHSL-Reference State Rating, SER=Student Efficiency Rating, Rk = Region Rank 2000-08 , N/S = North/South/City
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