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Central Region Football Proposed Realignment
Proposed Districts & 2000-2008 Team information shown:

South A District Rating W L PCT PF PA Old District Div Group Region Stud. SER Rk N/S Regular Season Schedule NOTES
1 L.C. Bird 91.7 85 21 0.802 3,014 1,155 Dominion 6 AAA Central 1,859 1.25 1 S Play 6 District Games (South A)
2 Thomas Dale 81.2 65 31 0.677 2,308 1,367 Central 6 AAA Central 2,183 0.95 4 S Play 1 Game against North A District Team
3 Meadowbrook 77.2 65 36 0.644 2,441 1,625 Central 6 AAA Central 1,737 1.12 5 S Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team 
4 Manchester 74.8 54 35 0.607 2,103 1,487 Dominion 6 AAA Central 2,314 0.83 7 S Play 2 Bonus Games
5 Matoaca 72.6 68 31 0.687 3,011 1,970 Central 6 AAA Central 1,320 1.34 9 S  
6 Monacan 67.7 49 43 0.533 1,802 1,728 Dominion 5 AAA Central 1,611 1.03 12 S  
7 James River(C) 61.5 40 51 0.440 1,647 2,081 Dominion 6 AAA Central 1,785 0.80 17 S  
  
North A District Rating W L PCT PF PA Old District Div Group Region Stud. SER Rk N/S Regular Season Schedule NOTES
1 Varina 90.7 87 14 0.861 3,429 1,168 Capital 6 AAA Central 1,795 1.27 2 N Play 6 District Games (North A)
2 Highland Springs 81.3 75 23 0.765 3,020 1,298 Capital 6 AAA Central 1,582 1.23 3 N Play 1 Game against South A District Team
3 Hermitage 75.4 70 24 0.745 3,228 1,247 Colonial 6 AAA Central 1,986 1.12 6 N Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team 
4 Patrick Henry(A) 74.2 74 24 0.755 2,998 1,367 Colonial 5 AAA Central 1,497 1.40 5 N Play 2 Bonus Games
5 Mills Godwin 71.9 54 29 0.651 2,077 1,456 Colonial 6 AAA Central 1,898 1.02 7 N  
6 Deep Run 66.4 41 23 0.641 1,652 1,147 Colonial 6 AAA Central 1,498 1.14 12 N  
7 Hanover 54.6 24 42 0.364 971 1,532 Capital 5 AAA Central 1,200 1.01 22 N  
 
South B District Rating W L PCT PF PA Old District Div Group Region Stud. SER Rk N/S Regular Season Schedule NOTES
1 Hopewell 69.2 55 44 0.556 2,143 2,012 Central 5 AAA Central 993 1.53 11 S Play 6 District Games (South B)
2 Powhatan 67.2 87 22 0.798 3,430 1,419 Southside 4 AA  I 1,385 1.34 - S Play 1 Game against North B District Team
3 Clover Hill 65.6 44 46 0.489 1,830 1,891 Dominion 6 AAA Central 1,863 0.89 15 S Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team
4 Midlothian 57.5 34 53 0.391 1,092 1,892 Dominion 5 AAA Central 1,644 0.90 19 S Play 2 Bonus Games
5 Dinwiddie 55.7 41 57 0.418 2,187 2,696 Central 5 AAA Central 1,390 0.98 21 S  
7 Cosby(C) 52.6 11 12 0.478 540 437 Dominion 5 AAA Central 1,317 0.82 24 S  
6 Prince George 52.0 27 62 0.303 1,426 2,288 Central 6 AAA Central 1,316 0.92 25 S  
 
North B District Rating W L PCT PF PA Old District Div Group Region Stud. SER Rk N/S Regular Season Schedule NOTES
1 Lee-Davis 61.6 41 48 0.461 1,932 2,045 Capital 6 AAA Central 1,544 0.94 16 N Play 5 District Games (North B)
2 Douglas Freeman 57.1 41 49 0.456 1,806 1,935 Colonial 5 AAA Central 1,557 0.89 20 N Play 1 Game against South B District Team
3 Henrico 53.2 32 58 0.356 1,543 2,102 Capital 6 AAA Central 1,562 0.84 23 N Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team
4 Atlee 50.0 27 59 0.314 1,158 2,367 Capital 5 AAA Central 1,515 0.80 26 N Play 3 Bonus Games
5 J.R. Tucker 44.1 20 58 0.256 1,237 2,250 Colonial 6 AAA Central 1,562 0.65 28 N  
6 New Henrico Co. School - - -   - - -   AAA Central - - - N  
 
City District Rating W L PCT PF PA Old District Div Group Region Stud. SER Rk N/S Regular Season Schedule NOTES
1 Huguenot 65.6 48 46 0.511 2,186 1,851 Dominion 5 AAA Central 1,164 1.26 14 C Play 6 District Games (City)
2 Petersburg 60.7 43 49 0.467 1,934 1,742 Central 5 AAA Central 1,451 1.03 18 C Play 1 Game against highly rated non-region team
3 Colonial Heights 47.0 26 63 0.292 1,366 2,467 Central 5 AAA Central 884 1.21 27 C Play 3 Bonus Games
4 Armstrong 43.9 28 60 0.318 1,199 2,263 Capital 5 AAA Central 977 1.04 29 C  
5 John Marshall 41.4 24 65 0.270 1,208 2,657 Colonial 5 AAA Central 945 1.01 30 C  
6 George Wythe(R) 37.6 12 76 0.136 1,003 2,762 Dominion 5 AAA Central 1,080 0.79 32 C  
7 Thomas Jefferson(R) 27.3 6 78 0.071 716 3,587 Colonial 5 AAA Central 769 0.79 33 C  
 
District Averages 2000-2008 (Post Realignment )
District Rating W L PCT PF PA       Region Stud. SER  
South A 75.2 61 36 0.627 2,332 1,630       Central 1,830 1.05  
North A 73.5 61 26 0.683 2,482 1,316       Central 1,637 1.17  
South B 60.0 43 42 0.490 1,807 1,805       Central 1,421 1.05  
North B 53.2 32 54 0.369 1,535 2,140       Central 1,548 0.82  
City 46.2 27 62 0.295 1,373 2,476       Central 1,039 1.02  


Realignment Objectives/Notes :

  • To keep districts organized around geographically compact units
  • To create more compelling match ups, a more competitive balance between schools and more competitive districts.
  • To create a flexible schedule program that will enable schools to choose more of their opponents rather than being locked into less challenging district schedules.
  • To keep rivalry games constant, using bonus game scheduling if necessary. Bonus game scheduling means a team can choose any opponent for the bonus games.
  • To improve the overall quality of play and improve the Central region's playoff performance.
  • Extra travel costs could be subsidized by the extra week of playoffs ticket revenue.
  • Reevaluate and adjust the districts every two years. If a "B" district team is dominating its district "B" competition, move it up to the "A" district at the reevaluation year.

Realignment Playoff Format :

  • Extra round of playoff games will be added, like the Northern & Eastern regions.
  • 8 Division 5 teams and 8 Division 6 teams qualify for playoffs.
  • District winners get automatic playoff bid and first round home game, and the other 11 spots are selected by rating.

Suggested Non-Region Opponents :

Division 6
Battlefield, Bayside, Bethel, C.D. Hylton, Centreville, Chantilly, Forest Park, Frank Cox, Gar-Field, Herndon, Kellam, Lake Braddock, Landstown, Langley, Massaponax, Oakton, Ocean Lakes, Osbourn, Oscar Smith, Salem(VB), South County, Tallwood, W.T. Woodson, West Potomac, West Springfield, Western Branch, Westfield, Woodbridge, Woodside.

Division 5
Albemarle, Brooke Point, Churchland, Fauquier, George Marshall, Great Bridge, Green Run, GW-Danville, Hampton, Heritage(NN), Indian River, James Madison, Kings Fork, Lake Taylor, Liberty(Beal), Mount Vernon, Norcom, North Stafford, Norview, Phoebus, Potomac, Stone Bridge, Thomas Edison, Warwick, William Fleming, Yorktown.

Realignment Sample Schedules:

 
Deep Run Wildcats Sample Schedule
@ Varina District
@ Matoaca Bonus
Hanover District
Highland Springs District
@ Hermitage District
@ Douglas Freeman Bonus
Meadowbrook South A District
Mills Godwin District
Patrick Henry(A) District
@ Landstown Non-Region
 
L.C. Bird Skyhawks Sample Schedule
@ Thomas Dale District
Hopewell Bonus
@ Manchester District
Meadowbrook District
@ Matoaca District
Clover Hill Bonus
Varina North A District
@Monacan District
James River(C) District
@ Oscar Smith Non-Region
 
John Marshall Justices Sample Schedule
@ Huguenot District
Hopewell Bonus
Petersburg District
Armstrong District
@ Colonial Heights District
@ Douglas Freeman Bonus
J.R. Tucker Bonus
George Wythe(R) District
@ Thomas Jefferson(R) District
@ Heritage(NN) Non-Region

District Comparison: Current vs Realignment

  Currently the Central regions districts are ranked 11th,12th, 14th and 16th in Virginia.   After realignment the Central regions districts would be ranked 7th, 8th,15th, 16th, and 17th in Virginia.    
 
Current Division 5/6 Districts 2000-08
District Rk. Rating Stud. SER W L Pct
Concorde 1 92.2 2,488 0.96 437 246 0.640
Cardinal 2 81.4 2,233 0.94 289 236 0.550
Beach 3 79.2 2,104 0.96 511 513 0.499
Patriot 4 78.6 2,263 0.89 311 374 0.454
Southeastern 5 77.1 1,871 1.04 442 393 0.529
Peninsula  6 75.7 1,826 1.05 499 462 0.519
Cedar Run 7 71.8 2,055 0.89 257 297 0.464
Liberty 8 69.1 1,713 1.01 367 384 0.489
Commonwealth  9 67.2 1,757 0.96 337 322 0.511
Eastern 10 65.7 1,633 1.00 333 406 0.451
Dominion 11 64.8 1,699 0.95 377 383 0.496
Central 12 64.5 1,427 1.11 390 373 0.511
Western Valley 13 61.8 1,807 0.86 218 240 0.476
Capital 14 61.2 1,445 1.04 326 330 0.497
National 15 60.2 1,685 0.89 295 379 0.438
Colonial 16 56.8 1,517 0.93 330 350 0.485

 

 
Realigned Division 5/6 Districts 2000-08
District Rk. Rating Stud. SER W L Pct
Concorde 1 92.2 2,488 0.96 437 246 0.640
Cardinal 2 81.4 2,233 0.94 289 236 0.550
Beach 3 79.2 2,104 0.96 511 513 0.499
Patriot 4 78.6 2,263 0.89 311 374 0.454
Southeastern 5 77.1 1,871 1.04 442 393 0.529
Peninsula  6 75.7 1,826 1.05 499 462 0.519
South A 7 75.2 1,830 1.05 426 248 0.632
North A 8 73.5 1,637 1.17 425 179 0.704
Cedar Run 9 71.8 2,055 0.89 257 297 0.464
Liberty 10 69.1 1,713 1.01 367 384 0.489
Commonwealth  11 67.2 1,757 0.96 337 322 0.511
Eastern 12 65.7 1,633 1.00 333 406 0.451
Western Valley 13 61.8 1,807 0.86 218 240 0.476
National 14 60.2 1,685 0.89 295 379 0.438
South B 15 60.0 1,421 1.05 299 296 0.502
North B 16 53.2 1,548 0.82 161 272 0.372
City 17 46.2 1,039 1.02 187 437 0.300
   

 

Why doesn't The Central region win More state championships?

Since the VHSL adopted its current division format in in 1986 no Central region school has won the division 6 state championship and only 3 schools have won division 5 titles (2004 Meadowbrook , 2003 Hopewell  and 1994 Patrick Henry(A) ). That's 0 for 23 in D-6 and 3 for 23 in D-5. 3 titles in 46 chances, about 6%, despite the fact the region has about 25% of the teams in these divisions.

I have identified these reasons why the Central region does not win more State championships.

  • Central Region has Smaller Schools; The Central Region schools are on average 15%-20% smaller than schools in the other regions.

      School Enrollments - 2008

    Year Region Schools Students Avg/School
    2008 Northern 30 62,083 2,069
    2008 Northwest 28 55,398 1,979
    2008 Eastern 39 72,934 1,870
    2008 Central 32 51,313 1,604


  • Central Region plays weaker opponents and has less competitive schedules; The Central region Strength of Schedule(SOS) was 48.3 in 2007, while the Northern and Eastern regions were near 60. That is a significant difference. It means that in 2007 the average Central region team played a team rated like Douglas Freeman every week while the Eastern and Northern regions played a team rated like Huguenot every week. Over an entire season that difference adds up.

      Team Strength of Schedule - 2007

    Year Region Schools SOS
    2007 Northern 30 60.1
    2007 Eastern 39 58.3
    2007 Northwest 28 56.0
    2007 Central 32 48.3


  • Central Region has less quality playing time (QPT); By playing weaker less competitive schedules against much smaller schools Central region schools do not get as much quality playing time. Since 2000 Hermitage is 31-2 vs Thomas Jefferson(R) , John Marshall  and J.R. Tucker, Lee-Davis  outscoring these four teams by an average score of 47-8.
    These games do not represent four quarters of quality playing time (QPT).
    By the time Hermitage got to last years D-6 semi-final game against Woodbridge they had played 10-15 quarters less of QPT than Woodbridge.
    That's 25%-30% less QPT than Woodbridge.
    The problem only gets worse as the other regions add an additional playoff game and get more quality playing time.

      Point Differential in District Games (2000-08)

    Rk District Winning
    Team Pt's.
    Losing
    Team Pt's.
    Spread.
    1 Colonial 37.13 10.21 26.92
    2 Peninsula  32.78 7.93 24.85
    3 National 34.05 9.35 24.70
    4 Capital 34.06 9.42 24.64
    5 Southeastern 34.31 9.93 24.39
    6 Dominion 31.08 8.83 22.25
    7 Beach 32.24 10.80 21.44
    8 Central 31.69 10.91 20.78
    9 Battlefield  31.43 10.95 20.48
    10 Cardinal 29.02 9.36 19.66
    11 Eastern 28.22 8.56 19.66
    12 Concorde 29.64 10.31 19.33
    13 Liberty 30.35 11.51 18.84
    14 Commonwealth  29.54 13.03 16.52
    15 Western Valley 29.16 12.77 16.39
    16 Patriot 30.04 13.95 16.09
    17 Massanutten 27.31 11.31 16.00
    18 Cedar Run 27.12 11.78 15.34


  • Central Region starts the season later and plays a shorter season; Usually the other regions start the season one week earlier and the Northern and Eastern regions have an extra round of playoff games. This gives those teams another quality opponent to improve.
  • Central Region scheduling and current district format doesn't allow for teams to reach maximum potential.
  • Other possible factors; Tradition, youth leagues, student transfer policies, coaching, and socioeconomic factors.

 

 

Key : Rating=VHSL-Reference State Rating, SER=Student Efficiency Rating, Rk = Region Rank 2000-08 , N/S = North/South/City