VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2003 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Franklin 7 4 9.84 1.16 -2.84 51.4 333 151 0.69 1 A A Tri-Rivers  13  1   61.2 6
2 Narrows 7 3 8.76 1.24 -1.76 36.1 309 150 0.67 1 A C Mtn. Empire  7  4   24.0 0
3 William Campbell 11 2 12.28 0.72 -1.28 63.1 504 176 0.74 1 A B Dogwood  10  3   59.1 -1
4 Rural Retreat 5 5 6.19 3.81 -1.19 22.7 225 188 0.54 1 A C Hogoheegee  7  6   31.8 2
5 Amelia County 8 3 9.08 1.92 -1.08 42.5 215 121 0.64 1 A B James River  3  7   13.3 -5
6 Buffalo Gap 6 5 6.83 4.17 -0.83 35.4 269 224 0.55 1 A B Shenandoah  7  4   39.7 1
7 Northwood 10 2 10.75 1.25 -0.75 43.5 342 154 0.69 1 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   -3.5 -9
8 Mathews 10 2 10.75 1.25 -0.75 61.8 452 204 0.69 1 A A Tidewater  5  6   31.5 -5
9 Twin Springs 6 5 6.62 4.38 -0.62 11.3 246 211 0.54 1 A D Cumberland  7  5   23.3 1
10 Riverheads 9 3 9.61 2.39 -0.61 45.0 305 182 0.63 1 A B Shenandoah  4  6   24.9 -5
11 Ervinton 3 7 3.55 6.45 -0.55 -2.4 222 277 0.44 1 A D Cumberland  0  10   -16.7 -3
12 Page 1 9 1.48 8.52 -0.48 9.0 140 268 0.34 1 A B Shenandoah  2  8   13.7 1
13 Holston 0 10 0.41 9.59 -0.41 -13.4 101 325 0.24 1 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   4.3 2
14 Bath County 13 1 13.30 0.70 -0.30 59.5 572 192 0.75 1 A C Pioneer  6  5   36.0 -7
15 Chincoteague 2 1 2.30 0.70 -0.30 25.0 62 40 0.61 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  2  2   -6.8 0
16 Auburn 6 4 6.18 3.82 -0.18 32.9 178 149 0.54 1 A C Three Rivers  2  8   0.1 -4
17 Middlesex 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 7.8 77 446 0.15 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   10.7 2
18 Twin Valley 0 8 0.04 7.96 -0.04 -7.4 42 310 0.12 1 A D Black Diamond  6  5   10.5 6
19 Colonial Beach 0 2 0.01 1.99 -0.01 -21.0 8 52 0.13 1 A A Northern Neck  2  0   26.5 2
20 J.I. Burton 9 4 8.95 4.05 0.05 35.8 365 272 0.57 1 A D Lonesome Pine  10  4   38.8 1
21 Sussex Central * 14 0 13.88 0.12 0.12 69.5 638 111 0.85 1 A A Tri-Rivers  11  1   53.7 -3
22 Strasburg 3 7 2.40 7.60 0.60 8.0 156 239 0.39 1 A B Bull Run  7  4   47.9 4
23 Parry McCluer 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 4.9 72 236 0.23 1 A C Pioneer  9  3   35.9 8
24 Eastern Montgomery 6 5 5.35 5.65 0.65 32.7 239 244 0.49 1 A C Three Rivers  3  7   6.1 -3
25 Hurley 1 3 0.32 3.68 0.68 0.7 62 154 0.29 1 A D Black Diamond  4  7   2.9 3
26 Luray 2 8 1.20 8.80 0.80 10.0 136 284 0.32 1 A B Shenandoah  2  8   18.0 0
27 Altavista 1 6 0.18 6.82 0.82 -5.2 50 193 0.21 1 A B Dogwood  3  7   15.0 2
28 Bland(RG) 2 8 1.17 8.83 0.83 4.2 156 330 0.32 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   -13.6 0
29 Rappahannock 1 9 0.07 9.93 0.93 14.6 48 309 0.13 1 A A Northern Neck  4  7   22.4 3
30 Galax 2 8 1.03 8.97 0.97 2.3 154 343 0.31 1 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   6.5 2
31 Craig County 5 5 3.68 6.32 1.32 20.4 180 220 0.45 1 A C Pioneer  5  5   4.2 0
32 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 3 7 1.65 8.35 1.35 13.2 136 248 0.35 1 A B Shenandoah  9  3   47.9 6
33 King & Queen 4 6 2.64 7.36 1.36 24.8 190 278 0.41 1 A A Tidewater  3  7   10.4 -1
34 Castlewood 5 6 3.55 7.45 1.45 9.0 171 225 0.43 1 A D Cumberland  2  8   -2.2 -3
35 Charles City 5 5 3.46 6.54 1.54 32.0 165 209 0.44 1 A A Tri-Rivers  3  7   10.4 -2
36 Cumberland 4 6 2.43 7.57 1.57 26.1 166 253 0.40 1 A B James River  3  7   23.0 -1
37 Covington 4 6 2.39 7.61 1.61 23.9 129 198 0.39 1 A C Pioneer  4  6   15.7 0
38 Surry 6 5 4.10 6.90 1.90 40.2 170 206 0.45 1 A A Tri-Rivers  4  6   22.4 -2
39 West Point 2 6 0.09 7.91 1.91 9.7 54 287 0.16 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   -7.2 0