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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2003 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 King William 7 4 10.32 0.68 -3.32 46.9 377 138 0.73 2 A A Tidewater  8  3   41.4 1
2 Floyd County 6 4 8.93 1.07 -2.93 39.8 285 130 0.69 2 A C Three Rivers  9  2   52.1 3
3 Lebanon 7 4 9.82 1.18 -2.82 36.0 303 138 0.69 2 A C Hogoheegee  10  2   55.6 3
4 Essex 10 4 12.20 1.80 -2.20 57.7 408 201 0.67 2 A A Northern Neck  10  2   53.6 0
5 George Wythe(W) 9 3 11.04 0.96 -2.04 44.9 375 152 0.71 2 A C Hogoheegee  9  1   50.2 0
6 Lancaster 4 6 5.94 4.06 -1.94 27.2 237 206 0.53 2 A A Northern Neck  7  3   37.6 3
7 Washington & Lee 6 5 7.89 3.11 -1.89 46.9 312 221 0.59 2 A A Northern Neck  8  5   45.5 2
8 Giles 8 3 8.87 2.13 -0.87 53.6 307 181 0.63 2 A C Three Rivers  10  3   56.6 2
9 Honaker 9 1 9.87 0.13 -0.87 39.8 357 72 0.83 2 A D Black Diamond  8  3   41.7 -1
10 Manassas Park 12 1 12.85 0.15 -0.85 56.4 416 81 0.84 2 A B Bull Run  14  0   67.9 2
11 Radford 11 2 11.82 1.18 -0.82 59.9 350 149 0.70 2 A C Three Rivers  4  6   31.6 -7
12 James Monroe 11 1 11.81 0.19 -0.81 65.2 432 93 0.82 2 A I Battlefield  7  4   35.4 -4
13 Central(W) 9 2 9.61 1.39 -0.61 46.4 280 137 0.67 2 A II Northwestern  8  3   47.9 -1
14 Grayson County 7 4 7.51 3.49 -0.51 32.0 288 217 0.57 2 A C Mtn. Empire  6  6   24.3 -1
15 Thomas Walker 0 9 0.41 8.59 -0.41 -25.3 95 292 0.25 2 A D Cumberland  4  6   -2.1 4
16 James River(B) 6 4 6.33 3.67 -0.33 31.7 236 193 0.55 2 A C Pioneer  4  6   11.4 -2
17 Lunenburg 9 3 9.31 2.69 -0.31 49.8 353 223 0.61 2 A B James River  8  3   44.7 -1
18 Randolph-Henry 0 10 0.18 9.82 -0.18 -1.7 65 284 0.19 2 A B James River  4  6   22.1 4
19 Gate City * 14 0 13.83 0.17 0.17 66.8 622 121 0.84 2 A D Lonesome Pine  10  2   57.4 -4
20 John Battle 1 9 0.72 9.28 0.28 -0.3 137 353 0.28 2 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   9.1 1
21 Fort Chiswell 4 6 3.45 6.55 0.55 12.5 242 307 0.44 2 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   11.0 0
22 Nelson County 3 7 2.34 7.66 0.66 32.0 154 239 0.39 2 A B Dogwood  5  5   40.5 2
23 Patrick Henry(GS) 5 5 4.26 5.74 0.74 20.4 207 231 0.47 2 A C Hogoheegee  7  3   33.7 2
24 Northampton 1 9 0.22 9.78 0.78 14.4 103 421 0.20 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  4  6   28.7 3
25 Arcadia 1 8 0.21 8.79 0.79 14.4 103 413 0.20 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  9   5.4 0
26 Buckingham County 4 6 3.04 6.96 0.96 39.9 234 318 0.42 2 A B James River  4  6   38.6 0
27 Goochland 3 7 1.75 8.25 1.25 16.3 112 199 0.36 2 A B James River  8  4   44.7 5
28 Clarke County 5 5 3.51 6.49 1.49 19.6 152 191 0.44 2 A B Bull Run  5  5   30.5 0
29 Glenvar 2 8 0.46 9.54 1.54 20.9 72 222 0.24 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   32.0 3
30 Madison County 3 7 1.24 8.76 1.76 19.6 127 262 0.33 2 A B Bull Run  4  6   33.8 1
31 George Mason 6 4 4.09 5.91 1.91 33.8 123 141 0.47 2 A B Bull Run  5  5   37.8 -1
32 Chatham 3 7 1.08 8.92 1.92 24.1 125 273 0.31 2 A B Dogwood  6  4   44.4 3
33 Wilson Memorial 4 6 1.99 8.01 2.01 18.3 167 280 0.37 2 A B Shenandoah  2  8   8.2 -2
34 Windsor 3 6 0.90 8.10 2.10 27.8 106 239 0.31 2 A A Three Rivers  3  7   22.4 0
35 Chilhowie 3 7 0.78 9.22 2.22 7.9 113 282 0.29 2 A C Hogoheegee  7  3   33.7 4
36 Northumberland 4 6 1.49 8.51 2.51 27.2 175 334 0.34 2 A A Northern Neck  1  9   3.4 -3
37 Rye Cove 5 6 2.31 8.69 2.69 13.4 188 307 0.38 2 A D Cumberland  8  3   31.8 3