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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 King George 6 5 9.11 1.89 -3.11 59.4 333 186 0.64 4 AA I Battlefield  3  7   60.0 -3
2 Sherando 6 4 9.08 0.92 -3.08 53.5 451 193 0.70 4 AA II Northwestern  11  3   85.8 5
3 Fauquier 4 6 6.42 3.58 -2.42 44.8 277 223 0.55 4 AA II Evergreen  2  8   44.7 -2
4 Jefferson Forest 2 8 4.32 5.68 -2.32 47.4 271 300 0.47 4 AA III Seminole  5  6   72.2 3
5 Pulaski County 7 4 8.92 2.08 -1.92 61.5 382 223 0.63 4 AA IV River Ridge  6  4   64.1 -1
6 Smithfield 8 3 9.76 1.24 -1.76 63.5 389 181 0.68 4 AA I Bay Rivers  9  3   78.6 1
7 Monacan 9 3 10.57 1.43 -1.57 82.9 512 244 0.68 4 AA Central Dominion  11  1   88.6 2
8 Chancellor 9 3 10.46 1.54 -1.46 85.1 492 242 0.67 4 AA I Battlefield  3  7   60.0 -6
9 John Champe 7 4 7.95 3.05 -0.95 63.4 342 240 0.59 4 AA II Dulles  8  4   81.0 1
10 GW-Danville 7 4 7.89 3.11 -0.89 54.7 404 286 0.59 4 AA Northwest Piedmont  10  2   78.0 3
11 Lake Taylor 11 2 11.88 1.12 -0.88 82.5 545 227 0.71 4 AA Eastern Eastern  7  4   70.0 -4
12 Dominion 10 3 10.85 2.15 -0.85 83.3 401 220 0.65 4 AA II Dulles  7  4   67.7 -3
13 William Byrd 10 2 10.78 1.22 -0.78 82.6 443 198 0.69 4 AA III Blue Ridge  9  2   78.1 -1
14 Woodrow Wilson 2 8 2.74 7.26 -0.74 37.2 161 231 0.41 4 AA Eastern Eastern  1  8   29.0 -1
15 Harrisonburg 6 4 6.71 3.29 -0.71 54.0 315 242 0.57 4 AA III Valley  8  4   65.5 2
16 Freedom(R) 4 6 4.54 5.46 -0.54 44.2 183 196 0.48 4 AA Northwest Dulles  1  9   40.2 -3
17 Dinwiddie 14 1 14.53 0.47 -0.53 94.3 701 196 0.78 4 AA Central Central  12  1   93.0 -2
18 Loudoun Valley 7 4 7.49 3.51 -0.49 62.6 335 253 0.57 4 AA II Dulles  3  7   46.9 -4
19 Lafayette 13 1 13.43 0.57 -0.43 85.8 591 184 0.76 4 AA I Bay Rivers  12  2   87.6 -1
20 Heritage(NN) 8 4 8.36 3.64 -0.36 81.8 324 238 0.58 4 AA Eastern Peninsula  6  4   56.8 -2
21 Woodgrove 11 1 11.34 0.66 -0.34 86.8 549 191 0.74 4 AA II Dulles  6  4   68.0 -5
22 Charlottesville 7 5 7.31 4.69 -0.31 64.1 402 341 0.54 4 AA II Jefferson  7  4   74.2 0
23 Deep Creek 3 8 3.29 7.71 -0.29 51.7 194 266 0.42 4 AA Eastern Southeastern  9  3   82.1 6
24 Millbrook 10 2 10.29 1.71 -0.29 71.4 507 261 0.66 4 AA II Northwestern  9  2   80.8 -1
25 Kings Fork 4 7 4.24 6.76 -0.24 65.8 313 372 0.46 4 AA Eastern Southeastern  11  2   87.5 7
26 Salem * 13 1 13.21 0.79 -0.21 94.7 620 218 0.74 4 AA IV River Ridge  13  2   96.0 0
27 Amherst County 9 3 8.96 3.04 0.04 81.0 443 297 0.60 4 AA III Seminole  6  5   79.6 -3
28 Eastern View 12 1 11.89 1.11 0.11 85.7 471 196 0.71 4 AA II Evergreen  11  1   85.5 -1
29 Rock Ridge 1 9 0.88 9.12 0.12 30.5 160 381 0.30 4 AA Dulles  1  9   40.2 0
30 Courtland 5 6 4.85 6.15 0.15 64.1 217 237 0.48 4 AA I Battlefield  6  5   72.9 1
31 Bassett 1 9 0.77 9.23 0.23 21.8 193 485 0.28 4 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   24.3 0
32 Liberty(Beal) 4 6 3.73 6.27 0.27 54.4 226 274 0.45 4 AA II Evergreen  9  3   78.4 5
33 Louisa 8 3 7.62 3.38 0.38 79.8 358 265 0.57 4 AA II Jefferson  14  1   94.0 6
34 Carroll County 1 9 0.54 9.46 0.46 21.1 135 389 0.26 4 AA IV River Ridge  2  8   23.8 1
35 Grafton 9 3 8.27 3.73 0.73 64.6 352 262 0.57 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  8   32.5 -8
36 Park View(St) 2 8 1.24 8.76 0.76 34.0 168 346 0.33 4 AA II Dulles  0  10   23.6 -2
37 William Fleming 3 7 2.23 7.77 0.77 44.3 162 257 0.39 4 AA Northwest Blue Ridge  0  10   43.6 -3
38 Powhatan 8 3 7.22 3.78 0.78 77.4 328 258 0.56 4 AA II Jefferson  3  7   48.4 -5
39 Handley 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 28.3 166 346 0.32 4 AA II Northwestern  4  6   54.3 2
40 Churchland 1 9 0.12 9.88 0.88 30.9 82 424 0.16 4 AA Eastern Eastern  1  8   30.0 0
41 Great Bridge 2 8 0.99 9.01 1.01 49.9 168 380 0.31 4 AA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   36.9 -2
42 Kettle Run 3 7 1.86 8.14 1.14 45.6 159 275 0.37 4 AA II Evergreen  9  3   78.4 6
43 Hanover 2 8 0.75 9.25 1.25 47.5 155 394 0.28 4 AA Central Capital  2  8   54.3 0
44 Midlothian 3 7 1.65 8.35 1.35 57.6 176 321 0.35 4 AA Central Dominion  5  6   57.6 2
45 Huguenot 3 7 1.55 8.45 1.45 54.3 226 424 0.35 4 AA Central Dominion  5  6   56.1 2
46 Loudoun County 3 7 1.54 8.46 1.46 44.3 195 367 0.35 4 AA II Dulles  7  4   63.1 4
47 James Wood 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 27.8 101 300 0.25 4 AA II Northwestern  2  8   39.2 0
48 Heritage(Le) 8 4 6.44 5.56 1.56 66.2 339 321 0.51 4 AA II Dulles  7  3   62.6 -1
49 Caroline 2 8 0.38 9.62 1.62 42.6 122 404 0.23 4 AA I Battlefield  2  7   42.1 0
50 E.C. Glass 6 4 4.34 5.66 1.66 64.6 234 258 0.48 4 AA III Seminole  8  4   79.0 2
51 Jamestown 3 7 1.33 8.67 1.67 35.4 180 360 0.33 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   37.2 -2
52 Denbigh 3 8 0.88 10.12 2.12 52.0 167 413 0.29 4 AA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   22.0 -3