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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2016 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Henrico 6 5 9.19 1.81 -3.19 65.0 347 190 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital  9  3   90.8 3
2 Orange 6 5 8.41 2.59 -2.41 64.8 340 220 0.61 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson  5  6   60.5 -1
3 Salem(VB) 8 4 10.40 1.60 -2.40 77.3 290 145 0.67 5 AAA Eastern Beach  8  5   70.5 0
4 Princess Anne 3 7 5.20 4.80 -2.20 50.0 273 265 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Beach  5  6   62.4 2
5 Norview 11 3 13.17 0.83 -2.17 81.0 576 207 0.74 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  7   61.3 -7
6 Falls Church 7 4 9.16 1.84 -2.16 66.0 433 239 0.64 5 AAA Northern National  6  5   47.8 -1
7 Briar Woods 4 7 5.79 5.21 -1.79 74.6 309 297 0.51 5 AAA II Potomac  2  8   57.1 -2
8 L.C. Bird 11 2 12.74 0.26 -1.74 93.7 581 138 0.81 5 AAA Central Dominion  7  4   72.5 -4
9 Mills Godwin 5 5 6.69 3.31 -1.69 59.0 266 205 0.56 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  5   66.1 1
10 Indian River 7 5 8.67 3.33 -1.67 68.0 325 228 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  4   77.7 1
11 Varina 5 6 6.61 4.39 -1.61 64.4 277 238 0.54 5 AAA Central Capital  8  4   86.0 3
12 Stone Bridge 12 3 13.43 1.57 -1.43 99.8 507 229 0.69 5 AAA Northern Potomac  12  1   96.5 0
13 Lee-Davis 8 3 9.31 1.69 -1.31 75.6 354 188 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital  6  5   70.3 -2
14 Broad Run 9 3 10.25 1.75 -1.25 86.7 302 157 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Potomac  10  2   87.3 1
15 Hermitage 10 2 11.22 0.78 -1.22 88.4 427 159 0.73 5 AAA Central Colonial  11  2   101.9 1
16 Hampton 11 2 12.21 0.79 -1.21 92.6 465 169 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  4   61.2 -3
17 J.R. Tucker 1 9 2.11 7.89 -1.11 32.9 154 251 0.38 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   59.9 4
18 Patrick Henry(R) 8 3 9.00 2.00 -1.00 69.1 316 181 0.64 5 AAA Northwest River Ridge  6  5   70.9 -2
19 Prince George 3 7 3.45 6.55 -0.45 47.6 239 303 0.44 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   55.7 1
20 Massaponax 12 2 12.44 1.56 -0.44 94.8 580 269 0.68 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   66.3 -8
21 Matoaca 5 5 5.41 4.59 -0.41 65.6 303 285 0.52 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   61.3 -1
22 Warwick 4 7 4.36 6.64 -0.36 62.3 202 236 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   33.1 -2
23 Potomac 4 6 4.27 5.73 -0.27 54.2 218 243 0.47 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   64.4 -1
24 North Stafford 7 5 7.27 4.73 -0.27 69.2 375 320 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  4   85.0 1
25 Highland Springs * 14 1 14.25 0.75 -0.25 102.8 620 208 0.75 5 AAA Central Capital  14  1   107.6 0
26 Douglas Freeman 10 2 10.13 1.87 -0.13 83.6 346 185 0.65 5 AAA Central Colonial  4  6   59.9 -6
27 Kempsville 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 35.8 74 418 0.15 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   35.9 0
28 Thomas Jefferson(A) 0 9 0.05 8.95 -0.05 15.5 62 431 0.13 5 AAA Northern National  1  7   -3.4 1
29 Gloucester 4 6 4.04 5.96 -0.04 60.7 227 262 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  6   47.9 1
30 Tuscarora 5 6 5.02 5.98 -0.02 70.3 254 271 0.48 5 AAA II Potomac  12  3   96.5 7
31 Atlee 5 6 4.97 6.03 0.03 66.0 242 260 0.48 5 AAA Central Capital  3  7   57.5 -2
32 Glen Allen 3 7 2.93 7.07 0.07 49.4 220 305 0.42 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   46.0 -1
33 Green Run 4 7 3.85 7.15 0.15 59.0 222 279 0.44 5 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   48.1 -2
34 Nansemond River 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 69.1 244 235 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  5   79.8 3
35 Wakefield 2 8 1.67 8.33 0.33 35.8 191 346 0.36 5 AAA Northern National  3  8   33.9 1
36 Patrick Henry(A) 8 4 7.63 4.37 0.37 74.7 322 262 0.55 5 AAA Central Capital  5  5   70.7 -3
37 Mountain View 4 7 3.51 7.49 0.49 54.0 259 343 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  6   78.2 1
38 Menchville 1 9 0.48 9.52 0.52 45.4 113 343 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   32.9 1
39 Bethel 6 5 5.47 5.53 0.53 72.4 261 262 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   35.8 -3
40 Hickory 1 8 0.42 8.58 0.58 43.4 92 281 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   45.9 1
41 Maury 3 7 2.41 7.59 0.59 44.7 208 318 0.40 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  7   48.9 1
42 Thomas Edison 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 34.1 124 407 0.23 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   29.8 2
43 Stafford 3 7 2.37 7.63 0.63 49.3 192 296 0.39 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  10  4   92.9 7
44 Halifax County 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 27.2 159 331 0.32 5 AAA Northwest Piedmont  5  5   44.2 3
45 Brooke Point 11 2 10.18 2.82 0.82 86.8 565 351 0.62 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  10  3   92.9 -1
46 Deep Run 6 5 5.05 5.95 0.95 62.2 255 271 0.48 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   64.2 -1
47 George Marshall 5 6 4.02 6.98 0.98 55.6 282 346 0.45 5 AAA Northern National  9  2   65.8 4
48 J.E.B. Stuart 4 6 2.56 7.44 1.44 45.9 208 309 0.40 5 AAA Northern National  4  5   33.7 0
49 Meadowbrook 4 6 2.51 7.49 1.49 62.6 158 237 0.40 5 AAA Central Central  4  7   67.9 0
50 Kecoughtan 2 8 0.37 9.63 1.63 53.0 107 357 0.23 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   40.4 2
51 R.E. Lee(S) 5 5 3.26 6.74 1.74 56.2 260 340 0.43 5 AAA Northern Patriot  4  7   35.2 -1
52 Albemarle 9 3 7.02 4.98 1.98 79.7 311 274 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Jefferson  5  6   64.4 -4