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1999-19 Team Seasons
A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball
writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s
runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.
Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.
The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses PFALL = Points for PAALL = Points against Projected W = Projected Wins Projected L = Projected Losses
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.
1 |
Colonial Beach
|
7 |
4 |
9.97 |
1.03 |
-2.97 |
30.2 |
320 |
138 |
0.70 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Northern Neck |
5 |
5 |
30.9 |
-2 |
2 |
Galax
|
10 |
4 |
12.81 |
1.19 |
-2.81 |
42.4 |
519 |
215 |
0.71 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Mtn. Empire |
11 |
3 |
60.2 |
1 |
3 |
Grundy
|
7 |
4 |
9.75 |
1.25 |
-2.75 |
35.2 |
334 |
156 |
0.68 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Black Diamond |
7 |
5 |
32.2 |
0 |
4 |
Chilhowie
|
11 |
4 |
13.21 |
1.79 |
-2.21 |
41.9 |
549 |
262 |
0.68 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Hogoheegee |
14 |
1 |
62.0 |
3 |
5 |
Sussex Central
|
9 |
3 |
11.15 |
0.85 |
-2.15 |
44.3 |
404 |
156 |
0.72 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tri-Rivers |
2 |
9 |
4.2 |
-7 |
6 |
Lunenburg
|
5 |
7 |
7.12 |
4.88 |
-2.12 |
19.9 |
453 |
394 |
0.53 |
1 |
A |
1B |
James River |
6 |
5 |
34.0 |
1 |
7 |
Castlewood
|
5 |
6 |
6.82 |
4.18 |
-1.82 |
7.5 |
272 |
227 |
0.55 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Cumberland |
3 |
7 |
0.6 |
-2 |
8 |
West Point
|
7 |
3 |
8.76 |
1.24 |
-1.76 |
16.5 |
357 |
173 |
0.67 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tidewater |
7 |
3 |
29.6 |
0 |
9 |
Riverheads
*
|
12 |
2 |
13.56 |
0.44 |
-1.56 |
65.0 |
479 |
134 |
0.78 |
1 |
A |
1B |
Shenandoah |
13 |
1 |
73.1 |
1 |
10 |
Narrows
|
11 |
2 |
12.52 |
0.48 |
-1.52 |
37.2 |
507 |
151 |
0.77 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Pioneer |
10 |
3 |
42.1 |
-1 |
11 |
Essex
|
12 |
2 |
13.50 |
0.50 |
-1.50 |
48.4 |
547 |
161 |
0.77 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Northern Neck |
8 |
4 |
45.1 |
-4 |
12 |
Covington
|
8 |
4 |
9.34 |
2.66 |
-1.34 |
26.2 |
403 |
253 |
0.61 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Pioneer |
6 |
4 |
36.4 |
-2 |
13 |
Parry McCluer
|
5 |
7 |
6.32 |
5.68 |
-1.32 |
17.2 |
286 |
275 |
0.51 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Pioneer |
7 |
5 |
35.8 |
2 |
14 |
George Wythe(W)
|
6 |
5 |
7.20 |
3.80 |
-1.20 |
42.0 |
289 |
228 |
0.56 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Mtn. Empire |
7 |
4 |
50.2 |
1 |
15 |
Rye Cove
|
1 |
9 |
1.91 |
8.09 |
-0.91 |
-24.3 |
191 |
326 |
0.37 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Cumberland |
4 |
6 |
-7.6 |
3 |
16 |
Craig County
|
0 |
10 |
0.76 |
9.24 |
-0.76 |
-24.6 |
130 |
328 |
0.28 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Pioneer |
2 |
7 |
-10.3 |
2 |
17 |
Rappahannock
|
2 |
7 |
2.74 |
6.26 |
-0.74 |
0.2 |
204 |
277 |
0.42 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Northern Neck |
7 |
2 |
43.9 |
5 |
18 |
Cumberland
|
0 |
11 |
0.38 |
10.62 |
-0.38 |
-10.4 |
149 |
511 |
0.23 |
1 |
A |
1B |
James River |
0 |
9 |
1.0 |
0 |
19 |
Eastside
|
6 |
4 |
6.28 |
3.72 |
-0.28 |
27.3 |
345 |
284 |
0.55 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Cumberland |
4 |
7 |
16.6 |
-2 |
20 |
Stonewall Jackson(Q)
|
0 |
11 |
0.16 |
10.84 |
-0.16 |
15.0 |
124 |
592 |
0.17 |
1 |
A |
1B |
Shenandoah |
0 |
11 |
15.9 |
0 |
21 |
Middlesex
|
5 |
5 |
5.13 |
4.87 |
-0.13 |
9.1 |
270 |
265 |
0.50 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tidewater |
2 |
7 |
-7.5 |
-3 |
22 |
King & Queen
|
0 |
4 |
0.10 |
3.90 |
-0.10 |
-37.7 |
52 |
205 |
0.20 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tidewater |
0 |
7 |
-25.2 |
0 |
23 |
Twin Valley
|
3 |
7 |
3.08 |
6.92 |
-0.08 |
-12.4 |
252 |
340 |
0.43 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Black Diamond |
4 |
5 |
-16.6 |
1 |
24 |
Lancaster
|
1 |
8 |
1.07 |
7.93 |
-0.07 |
-10.6 |
157 |
330 |
0.32 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Northern Neck |
2 |
5 |
1.6 |
1 |
25 |
Mathews
|
0 |
7 |
0.05 |
6.95 |
-0.05 |
-22.4 |
54 |
331 |
0.14 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tidewater |
2 |
6 |
-2.3 |
2 |
26 |
Windsor
|
0 |
10 |
0.01 |
9.99 |
-0.01 |
-10.5 |
42 |
515 |
0.08 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tri-Rivers |
2 |
8 |
-3.4 |
2 |
27 |
Northumberland
|
7 |
4 |
6.89 |
4.11 |
0.11 |
29.4 |
390 |
322 |
0.55 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Northern Neck |
9 |
2 |
43.5 |
2 |
28 |
Honaker
|
3 |
7 |
2.81 |
7.19 |
0.19 |
9.6 |
238 |
337 |
0.41 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Black Diamond |
5 |
6 |
20.7 |
2 |
29 |
Thomas Walker
|
6 |
5 |
5.78 |
5.22 |
0.22 |
-0.1 |
247 |
238 |
0.51 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Cumberland |
6 |
4 |
11.7 |
0 |
30 |
Patrick Henry(GS)
|
9 |
3 |
8.52 |
3.48 |
0.48 |
27.6 |
415 |
298 |
0.58 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Hogoheegee |
11 |
2 |
43.7 |
2 |
31 |
William Campbell
|
9 |
3 |
8.43 |
3.57 |
0.57 |
53.2 |
452 |
329 |
0.58 |
1 |
A |
1B |
Dogwood |
7 |
5 |
45.0 |
-2 |
32 |
Northwood
|
3 |
7 |
2.39 |
7.61 |
0.61 |
0.7 |
273 |
419 |
0.39 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Hogoheegee |
1 |
9 |
-10.1 |
-2 |
33 |
Eastern Montgomery
|
3 |
7 |
2.35 |
7.65 |
0.65 |
-1.0 |
171 |
265 |
0.39 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Pioneer |
3 |
8 |
9.0 |
0 |
34 |
Northampton
|
4 |
5 |
3.18 |
5.82 |
0.82 |
3.4 |
212 |
265 |
0.44 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Eastern Shore-A |
8 |
2 |
27.7 |
4 |
35 |
Franklin
|
3 |
7 |
2.17 |
7.83 |
0.83 |
13.2 |
237 |
381 |
0.38 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tri-Rivers |
9 |
2 |
34.6 |
6 |
36 |
Rural Retreat
|
2 |
9 |
1.03 |
9.97 |
0.97 |
7.7 |
187 |
433 |
0.30 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Mtn. Empire |
2 |
8 |
14.3 |
0 |
37 |
Hurley
|
6 |
5 |
5.00 |
6.00 |
1.00 |
16.6 |
271 |
290 |
0.48 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Black Diamond |
3 |
6 |
-6.5 |
-3 |
38 |
Bath County
|
2 |
8 |
0.98 |
9.02 |
1.02 |
-7.7 |
148 |
337 |
0.31 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Pioneer |
5 |
6 |
18.7 |
3 |
39 |
Holston
|
2 |
8 |
0.91 |
9.09 |
1.09 |
-0.8 |
171 |
401 |
0.30 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Hogoheegee |
6 |
5 |
25.3 |
4 |
40 |
Surry
|
2 |
7 |
0.75 |
8.25 |
1.25 |
7.5 |
158 |
384 |
0.29 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tri-Rivers |
3 |
7 |
13.5 |
1 |
41 |
Charles City
|
2 |
7 |
0.54 |
8.46 |
1.46 |
-7.3 |
126 |
349 |
0.27 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Tidewater |
42 |
J.I. Burton
|
7 |
6 |
5.48 |
7.52 |
1.52 |
27.7 |
299 |
336 |
0.47 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Cumberland |
9 |
3 |
39.5 |
2 |
43 |
Altavista
|
3 |
9 |
1.47 |
10.53 |
1.53 |
31.3 |
211 |
438 |
0.33 |
1 |
A |
1B |
Dogwood |
4 |
8 |
35.2 |
1 |
44 |
Twin Springs
|
2 |
8 |
0.27 |
9.73 |
1.73 |
-14.7 |
99 |
373 |
0.21 |
1 |
A |
1D |
Cumberland |
1 |
9 |
-13.8 |
-1 |
45 |
Washington & Lee
|
8 |
4 |
6.05 |
5.95 |
1.95 |
25.3 |
324 |
322 |
0.50 |
1 |
A |
1A |
Northern Neck |
3 |
6 |
41.8 |
-5 |
46 |
Bland(RG)
|
3 |
8 |
0.99 |
10.01 |
2.01 |
8.8 |
203 |
478 |
0.30 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Mtn. Empire |
2 |
7 |
5.6 |
-1 |
47 |
Auburn
|
4 |
7 |
1.92 |
9.08 |
2.08 |
17.6 |
176 |
313 |
0.36 |
1 |
A |
1C |
Mtn. Empire |
5 |
5 |
28.5 |
1 |
|