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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Colonial Beach 7 4 9.97 1.03 -2.97 30.2 320 138 0.70 1 A 1A Northern Neck  5  5   30.9 -2
2 Galax 10 4 12.81 1.19 -2.81 42.4 519 215 0.71 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  11  3   60.2 1
3 Grundy 7 4 9.75 1.25 -2.75 35.2 334 156 0.68 1 A 1D Black Diamond  7  5   32.2 0
4 Chilhowie 11 4 13.21 1.79 -2.21 41.9 549 262 0.68 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  14  1   62.0 3
5 Sussex Central 9 3 11.15 0.85 -2.15 44.3 404 156 0.72 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  2  9   4.2 -7
6 Lunenburg 5 7 7.12 4.88 -2.12 19.9 453 394 0.53 1 A 1B James River  6  5   34.0 1
7 Castlewood 5 6 6.82 4.18 -1.82 7.5 272 227 0.55 1 A 1D Cumberland  3  7   0.6 -2
8 West Point 7 3 8.76 1.24 -1.76 16.5 357 173 0.67 1 A 1A Tidewater  7  3   29.6 0
9 Riverheads * 12 2 13.56 0.44 -1.56 65.0 479 134 0.78 1 A 1B Shenandoah  13  1   73.1 1
10 Narrows 11 2 12.52 0.48 -1.52 37.2 507 151 0.77 1 A 1C Pioneer  10  3   42.1 -1
11 Essex 12 2 13.50 0.50 -1.50 48.4 547 161 0.77 1 A 1A Northern Neck  8  4   45.1 -4
12 Covington 8 4 9.34 2.66 -1.34 26.2 403 253 0.61 1 A 1C Pioneer  6  4   36.4 -2
13 Parry McCluer 5 7 6.32 5.68 -1.32 17.2 286 275 0.51 1 A 1C Pioneer  7  5   35.8 2
14 George Wythe(W) 6 5 7.20 3.80 -1.20 42.0 289 228 0.56 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  7  4   50.2 1
15 Rye Cove 1 9 1.91 8.09 -0.91 -24.3 191 326 0.37 1 A 1D Cumberland  4  6   -7.6 3
16 Craig County 0 10 0.76 9.24 -0.76 -24.6 130 328 0.28 1 A 1C Pioneer  2  7   -10.3 2
17 Rappahannock 2 7 2.74 6.26 -0.74 0.2 204 277 0.42 1 A 1A Northern Neck  7  2   43.9 5
18 Cumberland 0 11 0.38 10.62 -0.38 -10.4 149 511 0.23 1 A 1B James River  0  9   1.0 0
19 Eastside 6 4 6.28 3.72 -0.28 27.3 345 284 0.55 1 A 1D Cumberland  4  7   16.6 -2
20 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 0 11 0.16 10.84 -0.16 15.0 124 592 0.17 1 A 1B Shenandoah  0  11   15.9 0
21 Middlesex 5 5 5.13 4.87 -0.13 9.1 270 265 0.50 1 A 1A Tidewater  2  7   -7.5 -3
22 King & Queen 0 4 0.10 3.90 -0.10 -37.7 52 205 0.20 1 A 1A Tidewater  0  7   -25.2 0
23 Twin Valley 3 7 3.08 6.92 -0.08 -12.4 252 340 0.43 1 A 1D Black Diamond  4  5   -16.6 1
24 Lancaster 1 8 1.07 7.93 -0.07 -10.6 157 330 0.32 1 A 1A Northern Neck  2  5   1.6 1
25 Mathews 0 7 0.05 6.95 -0.05 -22.4 54 331 0.14 1 A 1A Tidewater  2  6   -2.3 2
26 Windsor 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 -10.5 42 515 0.08 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  2  8   -3.4 2
27 Northumberland 7 4 6.89 4.11 0.11 29.4 390 322 0.55 1 A 1A Northern Neck  9  2   43.5 2
28 Honaker 3 7 2.81 7.19 0.19 9.6 238 337 0.41 1 A 1D Black Diamond  5  6   20.7 2
29 Thomas Walker 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 -0.1 247 238 0.51 1 A 1D Cumberland  6  4   11.7 0
30 Patrick Henry(GS) 9 3 8.52 3.48 0.48 27.6 415 298 0.58 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  11  2   43.7 2
31 William Campbell 9 3 8.43 3.57 0.57 53.2 452 329 0.58 1 A 1B Dogwood  7  5   45.0 -2
32 Northwood 3 7 2.39 7.61 0.61 0.7 273 419 0.39 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  1  9   -10.1 -2
33 Eastern Montgomery 3 7 2.35 7.65 0.65 -1.0 171 265 0.39 1 A 1C Pioneer  3  8   9.0 0
34 Northampton 4 5 3.18 5.82 0.82 3.4 212 265 0.44 1 A 1A Eastern Shore-A  8  2   27.7 4
35 Franklin 3 7 2.17 7.83 0.83 13.2 237 381 0.38 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  9  2   34.6 6
36 Rural Retreat 2 9 1.03 9.97 0.97 7.7 187 433 0.30 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  2  8   14.3 0
37 Hurley 6 5 5.00 6.00 1.00 16.6 271 290 0.48 1 A 1D Black Diamond  3  6   -6.5 -3
38 Bath County 2 8 0.98 9.02 1.02 -7.7 148 337 0.31 1 A 1C Pioneer  5  6   18.7 3
39 Holston 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 -0.8 171 401 0.30 1 A 1D Hogoheegee  6  5   25.3 4
40 Surry 2 7 0.75 8.25 1.25 7.5 158 384 0.29 1 A 1A Tri-Rivers  3  7   13.5 1
41 Charles City 2 7 0.54 8.46 1.46 -7.3 126 349 0.27 1 A 1A Tidewater
42 J.I. Burton 7 6 5.48 7.52 1.52 27.7 299 336 0.47 1 A 1D Cumberland  9  3   39.5 2
43 Altavista 3 9 1.47 10.53 1.53 31.3 211 438 0.33 1 A 1B Dogwood  4  8   35.2 1
44 Twin Springs 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 -14.7 99 373 0.21 1 A 1D Cumberland  1  9   -13.8 -1
45 Washington & Lee 8 4 6.05 5.95 1.95 25.3 324 322 0.50 1 A 1A Northern Neck  3  6   41.8 -5
46 Bland(RG) 3 8 0.99 10.01 2.01 8.8 203 478 0.30 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  2  7   5.6 -1
47 Auburn 4 7 1.92 9.08 2.08 17.6 176 313 0.36 1 A 1C Mtn. Empire  5  5   28.5 1