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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Liberty(Beal) 9 3 11.06 0.94 -2.06 78.4 403 162 0.71 4 AA 4C Northwestern  5  5   57.8 -4
2 Smithfield 9 3 10.92 1.08 -1.92 78.6 381 162 0.70 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  4  6   51.0 -5
3 Courtland 6 5 7.79 3.21 -1.79 72.9 314 226 0.58 4 AA 4B Battlefield  8  3   72.3 2
4 Lafayette 12 2 13.76 0.24 -1.76 87.6 493 110 0.82 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  11  1   84.8 -1
5 Deep Creek 9 3 10.72 1.28 -1.72 82.1 332 151 0.69 4 AA 4A Southeastern  7  4   72.8 -2
6 Woodgrove 6 4 7.72 2.28 -1.72 68.0 380 242 0.61 4 AA 4C Dulles  11  2   94.0 5
7 Warhill 7 4 8.70 2.30 -1.70 68.0 324 198 0.62 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  7  5   57.4 0
8 E.C. Glass 8 4 9.46 2.54 -1.46 79.0 386 237 0.62 4 AA 4D Seminole  11  2   88.2 3
9 Kings Fork 11 2 12.43 0.57 -1.43 87.5 454 145 0.76 4 AA 4A Southeastern  6  6   72.8 -5
10 Sherando 11 3 12.28 1.72 -1.28 85.8 576 278 0.67 4 AA 4C Northwestern  10  2   84.3 -1
11 Dominion 7 4 8.22 2.78 -1.22 67.7 321 215 0.60 4 AA 4C Dulles  3  6   47.3 -4
12 Heritage(NN) 6 4 7.13 2.87 -1.13 56.8 273 195 0.58 4 AA 4A Peninsula  5  5   53.9 -1
13 Blacksburg 11 2 12.08 0.92 -1.08 91.6 548 211 0.72 4 AA 4D River Ridge  13  1   90.6 2
14 Loudoun Valley 3 7 4.03 5.97 -1.03 46.9 261 302 0.46 4 AA 4C Dulles  1  8   48.2 -2
15 William Byrd 9 2 9.98 1.02 -0.98 78.1 367 158 0.70 4 AA 4D Blue Ridge  7  3   59.6 -2
16 Eastern View 11 1 11.88 0.12 -0.88 85.5 647 119 0.84 4 AA 4B Battlefield  13  1   89.0 2
17 Millbrook 9 2 9.84 1.16 -0.84 80.8 471 213 0.69 4 AA 4C Northwestern  6  4   62.1 -3
18 Pulaski County 6 4 6.63 3.37 -0.63 64.1 338 263 0.56 4 AA 4D River Ridge  8  4   72.6 2
19 GW-Danville 10 2 10.54 1.46 -0.54 78.0 634 305 0.68 4 AA 4D Piedmont  8  3   63.3 -2
20 Heritage(Le) 7 3 7.43 2.57 -0.43 62.6 249 168 0.60 4 AA 4C Dulles  4  5   48.9 -3
21 Dinwiddie 12 1 12.40 0.60 -0.40 93.0 579 189 0.75 4 AA 4B Central  11  2   85.1 -1
22 Park View(St) 0 10 0.27 9.73 -0.27 23.6 160 602 0.21 4 AA 4C Dulles
23 Salem * 13 2 13.24 1.76 -0.24 96.0 631 299 0.68 4 AA 4D River Ridge  7  4   73.6 -6
24 Jefferson Forest 5 6 5.23 5.77 -0.23 72.2 407 422 0.49 4 AA 4D Seminole  8  4   74.1 3
25 Kettle Run 9 3 9.17 2.83 -0.17 78.4 371 240 0.61 4 AA 4C Northwestern  9  2   75.8 0
26 Bassett 1 9 1.10 8.90 -0.10 24.3 177 384 0.32 4 AA 4D Piedmont  3  7   37.0 2
27 Great Bridge 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 36.9 25 475 0.05 4 AA 4A Southeastern  2  7   47.6 2
28 Denbigh 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 22.0 16 422 0.04 4 AA 4A Peninsula  0  9   25.2 0
29 Churchland 1 8 0.92 8.08 0.08 30.0 107 239 0.31 4 AA 4A Eastern  4  6   60.3 3
30 Charlottesville 7 4 6.91 4.09 0.09 74.2 454 374 0.55 4 AA 4D Jefferson  1  9   29.9 -6
31 Powhatan 3 7 2.86 7.14 0.14 48.4 218 306 0.42 4 AA 4B Jefferson  6  4   59.3 3
32 Monacan 11 1 10.83 1.17 0.17 88.6 397 174 0.70 4 AA 4B Dominion  9  3   82.7 -2
33 Huguenot 5 6 4.75 6.25 0.25 56.1 260 288 0.47 4 AA 4B Dominion  4  6   58.9 -1
34 Lake Taylor 7 4 6.72 4.28 0.28 70.0 311 263 0.54 4 AA 4A Eastern  13  2   92.9 6
35 Louisa 14 1 13.64 1.36 0.36 94.0 635 270 0.70 4 AA 4B Jefferson  11  1   81.4 -3
36 Loudoun County 7 4 6.64 4.36 0.36 63.1 312 267 0.54 4 AA 4C Dulles  9  2   78.5 2
37 Amherst County 6 5 5.54 5.46 0.46 79.6 388 386 0.50 4 AA 4D Seminole  1  9   46.7 -5
38 Jamestown 1 9 0.52 9.48 0.48 37.2 121 354 0.25 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  1  8   30.9 0
39 James Wood 2 8 1.46 8.54 0.54 39.2 183 352 0.34 4 AA 4C Northwestern  4  6   49.3 2
40 Hanover 2 8 1.45 8.55 0.55 54.3 178 343 0.34 4 AA 4B Capital  3  7   53.6 1
41 Riverside 4 6 3.41 6.59 0.59 42.1 202 258 0.44 4 AA 4C Dulles  8  3   71.0 4
42 Fauquier 2 8 1.40 8.60 0.60 44.7 181 355 0.34 4 AA 4C Northwestern  0  10   28.2 -2
43 Woodrow Wilson 1 8 0.38 8.62 0.62 29.0 75 238 0.24 4 AA 4A Eastern  2  7   46.4 1
44 Grafton 1 8 0.10 8.90 0.90 32.5 74 388 0.16 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  0  9   23.8 -1
45 Patrick Henry(A) 5 5 3.96 6.04 1.04 70.7 247 289 0.46 4 AAA 4B Capital  4  7   52.1 -1
46 Caroline 2 7 0.71 8.29 1.29 42.1 138 342 0.29 4 AA 4B Battlefield  1  9   25.9 -1
47 Carroll County 2 8 0.52 9.48 1.48 23.8 118 345 0.25 4 AA 4D River Ridge  3  7   35.4 1
48 Handley 4 6 2.00 8.00 2.00 54.3 176 294 0.37 4 AA 4C Northwestern  5  5   46.7 1
49 Chancellor 3 7 0.92 9.08 2.08 60.0 160 374 0.30 4 AA 4B Battlefield  4  6   56.0 1
50 Midlothian 5 6 2.68 8.32 2.32 57.6 215 327 0.40 4 AA 4B Dominion  6  5   69.9 1
51 King George 3 7 0.63 9.37 2.37 60.0 118 321 0.27 4 AA 4B Battlefield  1  9   37.3 -2