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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Poquoson 9 4 12.64 0.36 -3.64 60.2 420 112 0.79 2 AA 2A Bay Rivers  4  1   63.8 -5
2 Gretna 9 3 11.93 0.07 -2.93 63.3 491 73 0.87 2 A 2C Dogwood  5  2   55.4 -4
3 Strasburg 7 4 8.81 2.19 -1.81 38.7 325 194 0.63 2 A 2B Bull Run  6  1   46.7 -1
4 King William 9 2 10.80 0.20 -1.80 47.1 411 94 0.81 2 A 2A Tidewater  5  2   50.5 -4
5 Floyd County 2 8 3.67 6.33 -1.67 22.4 193 236 0.45 2 A 2C Three Rivers  4  4   35.2 2
6 Ridgeview 10 2 11.49 0.51 -1.49 68.1 490 155 0.76 2 A 2D Mountain  6  1   66.0 -4
7 Amelia County 9 2 10.39 0.61 -1.39 53.5 440 154 0.74 2 A 2A James River  4  3   35.9 -5
8 Clarke County 6 4 7.34 2.66 -1.34 40.9 325 223 0.59 2 A 2B Bull Run  5  2   57.2 -1
9 Central(W) 10 2 11.32 0.68 -1.32 65.0 462 163 0.74 2 A 2B Bull Run  3  4   34.5 -7
10 Glenvar 10 2 11.24 0.76 -1.24 68.6 371 137 0.73 2 A 2C Three Rivers  4  3   57.6 -6
11 Appomattox 10 2 11.11 0.89 -1.11 75.1 430 169 0.72 2 A 2C Dogwood  5  2   70.0 -5
12 Greensville 6 5 6.98 4.02 -0.98 25.9 286 233 0.55 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers  5  1   45.1 -1
13 Tazewell 2 8 2.92 7.08 -0.92 13.3 260 361 0.42 2 A 2D Southwest  4  3   39.6 2
14 Goochland 14 1 14.51 0.49 -0.51 79.0 465 133 0.78 2 A 2A James River  6  1   71.0 -8
15 Union 9 3 9.47 2.53 -0.47 63.6 323 198 0.62 2 A 2D Mountain  6  2   72.0 -3
16 Buffalo Gap 7 5 7.33 4.67 -0.33 52.1 390 330 0.54 2 A 2B Shenandoah  4  2   40.7 -3
17 Graham * 14 1 14.31 0.69 -0.31 81.7 581 189 0.75 2 A 2D Southwest  5  2   65.0 -9
18 Gate City 1 9 1.31 8.69 -0.31 25.7 170 343 0.33 2 A 2D Mountain  3  5   49.4 2
19 East Rockingham 13 1 13.29 0.71 -0.29 78.2 612 207 0.75 2 A 2B Shenandoah  2  4   46.7 -11
20 Chatham 1 9 1.27 8.73 -0.27 16.5 204 416 0.33 2 A 2C Dogwood  5  2   39.0 4
21 Buckingham County 5 5 5.23 4.77 -0.23 35.2 178 172 0.51 2 A 2C James River  6  1   70.1 1
22 Madison County 3 7 3.13 6.87 -0.13 26.3 248 332 0.43 2 A 2B Bull Run  0  7   11.4 -3
23 James River(B) 8 3 8.07 2.93 -0.07 53.9 335 230 0.59 2 A 2C Pioneer  4  4   37.0 -4
24 R.E. Lee(ST) 6 5 6.05 4.95 -0.05 49.5 375 348 0.52 2 A 2B Shenandoah  2  6   32.3 -4
25 Bruton 0 4 0.00 4.00 -0.00 23.4 6 206 0.03 2 A 2A Bay Rivers  0  6   9.8 0
26 Marion 4 6 3.95 6.05 0.05 33.4 239 280 0.46 2 A 2D Southwest  3  4   31.1 -1
27 Page 4 6 3.92 6.08 0.08 32.1 216 254 0.46 2 A 2B Shenandoah  5  2   46.8 1
28 Grayson County 6 3 5.91 3.09 0.09 50.9 169 133 0.56 2 A 2D Mtn. Empire  2  5   4.6 -4
29 George Mason 2 7 1.88 7.12 0.12 15.3 149 244 0.38 2 A 2B Bull Run  4  3   39.6 2
30 Radford 12 2 11.85 2.15 0.15 75.5 393 209 0.65 2 A 2C Three Rivers  6  1   64.7 -6
31 Prince Edward 3 6 2.81 6.19 0.19 22.4 229 307 0.43 2 A 2A James River  1  6   14.6 -2
32 Fort Chiswell 4 6 3.72 6.28 0.28 38.0 178 216 0.45 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire  4  4   35.1 0
33 Lee 2 8 1.66 8.34 0.34 24.7 165 300 0.35 2 A 2D Shenandoah  0  8   26.7 -2
34 Randolph-Henry 1 8 0.53 8.47 0.47 9.5 125 349 0.26 2 A 2A James River  0  8   6.0 -1
35 John Battle 5 6 4.52 6.48 0.48 41.8 183 209 0.47 2 A 2D Mountain  1  6   20.5 -4
36 Arcadia 5 6 4.40 6.60 0.60 22.6 333 387 0.46 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A  4  3   18.6 -1
37 Virginia 5 6 4.39 6.61 0.61 50.6 239 278 0.46 2 A 2D Southwest  0  7   13.1 -5
38 Stuarts Draft 3 7 2.38 7.62 0.62 31.5 189 291 0.39 2 A 2B Shenandoah  7  0   74.6 4
39 Martinsville 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 18.0 115 395 0.23 2 A 2C Piedmont  0  8   20.7 -1
40 Nottoway 4 6 3.31 6.69 0.69 31.4 192 249 0.44 2 A 2A James River  4  2   41.8 0
41 Nandua 3 7 2.24 7.76 0.76 3.8 256 406 0.39 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A  4  4   29.6 1
42 Lebanon 2 8 1.13 8.87 0.87 15.8 170 365 0.32 2 A 2D Southwest  0  7   -1.2 -2
43 Dan River 4 6 3.12 6.88 0.88 38.9 203 272 0.43 2 A 2C Dogwood  5  3   51.4 1
44 Nelson County 2 7 1.08 7.92 0.92 1.6 155 324 0.32 2 A 2C Dogwood  4  4   39.1 2
45 Bluestone 2 6 0.89 7.11 1.11 22.5 105 227 0.32 2 A 2A James River  2  4   21.9 0
46 Wilson Memorial 5 6 3.77 7.23 1.23 49.5 323 411 0.44 2 A 2B Shenandoah  1  6   34.7 -4
47 Luray 8 4 6.67 5.33 1.33 57.4 388 357 0.52 2 A 2B Shenandoah  6  1   61.3 -2
48 Richlands 8 5 6.59 6.41 1.41 62.8 308 305 0.50 2 AA 2D Southwest  4  3   64.8 -4
49 Giles 4 6 1.86 8.14 2.14 52.6 162 280 0.37 2 A 2C Three Rivers  1  6   30.0 -3
50 Brunswick 3 7 0.70 9.30 2.30 21.5 112 292 0.28 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers  3  4   18.1 0
51 Wise Central 4 7 1.59 9.41 2.41 40.9 203 392 0.34 2 A 2D Mountain  5  2   50.4 1