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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2018 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Heritage(Le) 4 5 7.06 1.94 -3.06 48.9 218 135 0.62 4 AA 4C Dulles  1  7   37.7 -3
2 GW-Danville 8 3 10.51 0.49 -2.51 63.3 408 131 0.76 4 AA 4D Piedmont  5  2   70.7 -3
3 Pulaski County 8 4 10.39 1.61 -2.39 72.6 417 209 0.67 4 AA 4D River Ridge  7  1   86.8 -1
4 Salem 7 4 9.13 1.87 -2.13 73.6 365 203 0.64 4 AA 4D River Ridge  6  1   90.0 -1
5 William Byrd 7 3 9.03 0.97 -2.03 59.6 347 152 0.70 4 AA 4D Blue Ridge  2  5   52.8 -5
6 Sherando 10 2 11.29 0.71 -1.29 84.3 496 178 0.74 4 AA 4C Northwestern  3  2   75.0 -7
7 Powhatan 6 4 7.25 2.75 -1.25 59.3 222 155 0.59 4 AA 4B Jefferson  3  4   59.0 -3
8 Kings Fork 6 6 7.19 4.81 -1.19 72.8 254 219 0.54 4 AA 4A Southeastern  2  5   50.9 -4
9 Kettle Run 9 2 9.96 1.04 -0.96 75.8 340 147 0.70 4 AA 4C Northwestern  0  7   31.0 -9
10 E.C. Glass 11 2 11.96 1.04 -0.96 88.2 513 208 0.71 4 AA 4D Seminole  7  0   92.0 -4
11 Lafayette 11 1 11.87 0.13 -0.87 84.8 530 99 0.84 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  6  1   74.0 -5
12 Loudoun County 9 2 9.87 1.13 -0.87 78.5 350 157 0.69 4 AA 4C Dulles  6  2   78.3 -3
13 Fauquier 0 10 0.77 9.23 -0.77 28.2 138 347 0.28 4 AA 4C Northwestern  4  4   61.5 4
14 Eastern View 13 1 13.66 0.34 -0.66 89.0 660 169 0.80 4 AA 4B Battlefield  8  0   87.0 -5
15 Dinwiddie 11 2 11.61 1.39 -0.61 85.1 546 249 0.69 4 AA 4B Central  3  4   75.3 -8
16 Charlottesville 1 9 1.55 8.45 -0.55 29.9 190 356 0.35 4 AA 4D Jefferson  0  8   29.1 -1
17 Monacan 9 3 9.41 2.59 -0.41 82.7 361 224 0.62 4 AA 4B Dominion  5  1   76.0 -4
18 Lake Taylor 13 2 13.39 1.61 -0.39 92.9 658 300 0.69 4 AA 4A Eastern  6  2   88.1 -7
19 Louisa 11 1 11.34 0.66 -0.34 81.4 433 151 0.74 4 AA 4B Jefferson  7  0   92.4 -4
20 Warhill 7 5 7.22 4.78 -0.22 57.4 275 236 0.54 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  6  0   79.8 -1
21 Millbrook 6 4 6.17 3.83 -0.17 62.1 339 284 0.54 4 AA 4C Northwestern  4  2   63.5 -2
22 Denbigh 0 9 0.11 8.89 -0.11 25.2 78 399 0.16 4 AA 4A Peninsula  0  7   16.3 0
23 Courtland 8 3 8.10 2.90 -0.10 72.3 347 237 0.59 4 AA 4B Battlefield  1  7   39.5 -7
24 Amherst County 1 9 1.10 8.90 -0.10 46.7 182 395 0.32 4 AA 4D Seminole  1  6   54.5 0
25 Woodgrove * 11 2 11.08 1.92 -0.08 94.0 404 211 0.66 4 AA 4C Dulles  3  4   73.2 -8
26 Grafton 0 9 0.02 8.98 -0.02 23.8 34 342 0.09 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  1  6   34.7 1
27 Blacksburg 13 1 13.01 0.99 -0.01 90.6 472 182 0.72 4 AA 4D River Ridge  5  3   71.7 -8
28 King George 1 9 0.92 9.08 0.08 37.3 144 336 0.30 4 AA 4B Battlefield  3  4   60.3 2
29 Liberty(Beal) 5 5 4.66 5.34 0.34 57.8 253 266 0.49 4 AA 4C Northwestern  8  0   82.6 3
30 Huguenot 4 6 3.61 6.39 0.39 58.9 187 231 0.45 4 AA 4B Dominion  3  3   66.7 -1
31 Jefferson Forest 8 4 7.57 4.43 0.43 74.1 555 455 0.55 4 AA 4D Seminole  4  3   70.5 -4
32 Caroline 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 25.9 154 456 0.25 4 AA 4B Battlefield  1  6   32.9 0
33 Riverside 8 3 7.39 3.61 0.61 71.0 206 158 0.57 4 AA 4C Dulles  4  3   68.4 -4
34 Loudoun Valley 1 8 0.32 8.68 0.68 48.2 93 314 0.23 4 AA 4C Dulles  5  3   68.7 4
35 Handley 5 5 4.32 5.68 0.68 46.7 198 219 0.47 4 AA 4C Northwestern  6  0   83.3 1
36 Heritage(NN) 5 5 4.25 5.75 0.75 53.9 185 207 0.47 4 AA 4A Peninsula  1  7   31.9 -4
37 Jamestown 1 8 0.17 8.83 0.83 30.9 84 359 0.19 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  2  5   46.0 1
38 Chancellor 4 6 2.98 7.02 1.02 56.0 281 386 0.42 4 AA 4B Battlefield  5  3   62.5 1
39 Carroll County 3 7 1.88 8.12 1.12 35.4 157 270 0.37 4 AA 4D River Ridge  2  6   23.9 -1
40 Great Bridge 2 7 0.83 8.17 1.17 47.6 128 299 0.30 4 AA 4A Southeastern  3  4   52.9 1
41 James Wood 4 6 2.74 7.26 1.26 49.3 228 327 0.41 4 AA 4C Northwestern  5  2   62.2 1
42 Bassett 3 7 1.70 8.30 1.30 37.0 134 241 0.36 4 AA 4D Piedmont  5  3   54.3 2
43 Patrick Henry(A) 4 7 2.66 8.34 1.34 52.1 214 327 0.40 4 AAA 4B Capital  5  3   68.8 1
44 Churchland 4 6 2.62 7.38 1.38 60.3 184 270 0.41 4 AA 4A Eastern  6  2   78.6 2
45 Smithfield 4 6 2.57 7.43 1.43 51.0 229 339 0.40 4 AA 4A Bay Rivers  2  4   50.0 -2
46 Hanover 3 7 1.44 8.56 1.56 53.6 172 333 0.34 4 AA 4B Capital  1  6   35.9 -2
47 Woodrow Wilson 2 7 0.43 8.57 1.57 46.4 108 328 0.25 4 AA 4A Eastern  1  6   38.4 -1
48 Deep Creek 7 4 5.42 5.58 1.58 72.8 194 196 0.50 4 AA 4A Southeastern  6  1   81.4 -1
49 Dominion 3 6 1.03 7.97 1.97 47.3 109 233 0.32 4 AA 4C Dulles  3  4   55.3 0
50 Midlothian 6 5 3.44 7.56 2.56 69.9 180 241 0.43 4 AA 4B Dominion  1  6   58.5 -5