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VHSL Football 2007 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football, but the exponent is 2.37 instead of 2.,
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PF = Points for  PA = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

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Rank Teamname
STATE
Rating 		Actual
W		 Actual
L 		Projected
W		 Projected
L 		Actual
Projected
Difference
 PF PA %PTS Division Group Region District Students
1 Kings Fork 185 7 3 4.24 5.76 2.76 173 197 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern 1,546
2 Hurley 7 3 7 0.33 9.67 2.67 40 167 0.19 1 A D Black Diamond 208
3 Mills Godwin 170 8 2 5.52 4.48 2.48 274 251 0.52 6 AAA Central Colonial 1,878
4 Thomas Walker 14 4 6 1.76 8.24 2.24 113 217 0.34 1 A D Cumberland 253
5 Nelson County 49 5 5 2.80 7.20 2.20 182 271 0.40 1 A B Dogwood 598
6 Brentsville 67 4 6 1.81 8.19 2.19 137 259 0.35 4 AA II Northwestern 1,554
7 Atlee 73 3 7 0.84 9.16 2.16 122 335 0.27 5 AAA Central Capital 1,537
8 Buffalo Gap ***** 80 14 0 11.86 2.14 2.14 492 239 0.67 1 A B Shenandoah 620
9 Western Albemarle 89 5 5 2.91 7.09 2.09 169 246 0.41 3 AA II Jefferson 1,052
10 Rappahannock 21 3 7 0.98 9.02 2.02 88 225 0.28 1 A A Northern Neck 393
11 Herndon 182 5 5 3.01 6.99 1.99 176 251 0.41 6 AAA Northern Concorde 2,262
12 Virginia 34 4 6 2.03 7.97 1.97 105 187 0.36 2 A IV Clinch Mountain A 702
13 Arcadia 52 6 4 4.06 5.94 1.94 200 235 0.46 2 A A Eastern Shore-A 684
14 Warren County 22 2 8 0.08 9.92 1.92 39 304 0.11 4 AA II Northwestern 779
15 Monacan 142 6 5 4.10 6.90 1.90 139 173 0.45 5 AAA Central Dominion 1,545
16 Thomas Dale 124 5 5 3.18 6.82 1.82 168 232 0.42 6 AAA Central Central 2,493
17 Menchville 51 2 8 0.23 9.77 1.77 70 341 0.17 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula 1,956
18 Maury 162 6 5 4.26 6.74 1.74 224 272 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Eastern 2,043
19 Grundy 9 2 8 0.26 9.74 1.74 60 278 0.18 3 AA IV Southwest 474
20 Skyline 40 3 7 1.30 8.70 1.70 111 248 0.31 3 AA II Northwestern 959
21 Henrico 104 4 6 2.31 7.69 1.69 154 256 0.38 6 AAA Central Capital 1,902
22 South Lakes 95 3 7 1.32 8.68 1.68 147 325 0.31 5 AAA Northern Liberty 1,505
23 Washington-Lee 113 4 6 2.39 7.61 1.61 148 241 0.38 5 AAA Northern National 1,760
24 Bath County 36 8 5 6.41 6.59 1.59 174 176 0.50 1 A C Pioneer 260
25 Patrick County 74 5 6 3.42 7.58 1.58 225 315 0.42 3 AA IV Piedmont 817
26 Frank Cox 112 3 7 1.44 8.56 1.56 101 214 0.32 6 AAA Eastern Beach 2,046
27 Halifax County 136 6 4 4.49 5.51 1.51 199 217 0.48 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley 1,851
28 Goochland 95 11 1 9.53 2.47 1.47 401 227 0.64 2 A B James River 782
29 Hickory 87 3 7 1.55 8.45 1.45 103 211 0.33 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern 2,155
30 First Colonial 113 3 7 1.55 8.45 1.45 125 256 0.33 6 AAA Eastern Beach 2,133
31 Millbrook 140 9 3 7.60 4.40 1.40 282 224 0.56 3 AA II Northwestern 1,278
32 West Springfield 312 10 3 8.61 4.39 1.39 461 347 0.57 6 AAA Northern Patriot 2,251
33 Liberty(Bed) 85 6 6 4.64 7.36 1.36 238 289 0.45 3 AA III Seminole 1,046
34 Patrick Henry(GS) 30 4 6 2.66 7.34 1.34 185 284 0.39 2 A C Hogoheegee 466
35 Greensville 59 5 4 3.66 5.34 1.34 191 224 0.46 3 AA I Southside 781
36 Ocean Lakes 239 8 3 6.67 4.33 1.33 293 244 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach 2,540
37 Midlothian 41 2 8 0.72 9.28 1.28 93 274 0.25 5 AAA Central Dominion 1,508
38 Warwick 151 6 5 4.73 6.27 1.27 198 223 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula 1,890
39 Falls Church 95 3 7 1.75 8.25 1.25 183 352 0.34 5 AAA Northern National 1,357
40 Graham 63 6 5 4.77 6.23 1.23 176 197 0.47 3 AA IV Southwest 513
41 Freedom 79 2 8 0.78 9.22 1.22 99 281 0.26 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal 1,681
42 Carroll County 41 3 7 1.78 8.22 1.22 157 299 0.34 4 AA IV Southwest 897
43 South County 208 6 5 4.79 6.21 1.21 258 288 0.47 6 AAA Northern Patriot 2,078
44 Appalachia 25 6 5 4.80 6.20 1.20 245 273 0.47 1 A D Lonesome Pine 235
45 Rappahannock County 11 2 8 0.81 9.19 1.19 73 204 0.26 1 A B Bull Run 335
46 Potomac 324 13 1 11.82 2.18 1.18 408 200 0.67 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal 1,637
47 Charles City 15 2 8 0.84 9.16 1.16 126 346 0.27 1 A A Tri-Rivers 274
48 Cumberland 51 6 4 4.86 5.14 1.14 204 209 0.49 1 A B James River 477
49 Massaponax 215 9 2 7.86 3.14 1.14 327 222 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth 1,949
50 John Battle 24 3 7 1.87 8.13 1.13 184 342 0.35 2 A C Clinch Mountain A 683
51 Mathews 28 4 6 2.88 7.12 1.12 183 268 0.41 1 A A Tidewater 463
52 Lakeland 100 3 7 1.89 8.11 1.11 161 298 0.35 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern 1,337
53 Norview 101 3 7 1.90 8.10 1.10 103 190 0.35 5 AAA Eastern Eastern 1,915
54 Page 29 3 7 1.96 8.04 1.04 155 281 0.36 1 A B Shenandoah 591
55 Coeburn 13 3 7 1.97 8.03 1.03 196 355 0.36 2 A D Lonesome Pine 382
56 Brookville 135 9 4 7.97 5.03 1.03 401 330 0.55 3 AA III Seminole 1,004
57 Hopewell 83 4 6 3.00 7.00 1.00 179 256 0.41 5 AAA Central Central 1,123
58 Chincoteague 4 1 4 0.01 4.99 0.99 6 89 0.06 1 A A Eastern Shore-A 199
59 Cave Spring 53 2 8 1.01 8.99 0.99 119 299 0.28 3 AA III River Ridge 880
60 Lancaster 57 8 3 7.03 3.97 0.97 299 235 0.56 2 A A Northern Neck 487
61 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 60 6 5 5.04 5.96 0.96 163 175 0.48 1 A B Shenandoah 552
62 Hidden Valley 86 5 5 4.04 5.96 0.96 208 245 0.46 4 AA III River Ridge 1,220
63 Appomattox 74 8 3 7.05 3.95 0.95 319 250 0.56 2 A III Seminole 705
64 Rockbridge County 64 4 6 3.06 6.94 0.94 174 246 0.41 4 AA III Southern Valley 1,071
65 Harrisonburg 135 9 3 8.07 3.93 0.93 302 223 0.58 4 AA III Massanutten 1,335
66 Princess Anne 44 1 9 0.07 9.93 0.93 36 291 0.11 5 AAA Eastern Beach 1,897
67 North Stafford 135 4 6 3.08 6.92 0.92 162 228 0.42 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth 1,638
68 St. Paul 26 7 3 6.08 3.92 0.92 277 230 0.55 1 A D Cumberland 158
69 Tunstall 50 3 7 2.08 7.92 0.92 131 230 0.36 3 AA IV Piedmont 863
70 Clarke County 73 8 3 7.09 3.91 0.91 252 196 0.56 2 A B Bull Run 753
71 Monticello ***** 195 13 1 12.11 1.89 0.89 604 276 0.69 3 AA II Jefferson 1,171
72 Gate City 73 10 4 9.12 4.88 0.88 327 251 0.57 2 A D Clinch Mountain A 510
73 William Monroe 41 2 8 1.13 8.87 0.87 136 325 0.30 3 AA II Jefferson 845
74 Windsor 41 6 4 5.13 4.87 0.87 228 223 0.51 2 A A Three Rivers 514
75 Park View(St) 168 10 2 9.14 2.86 0.86 307 188 0.62 4 AA II Dulles 1,288
76 Tazewell 28 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 159 377 0.30 3 AA IV Southwest 673
77 West Potomac 218 8 4 7.17 4.83 0.83 254 215 0.54 6 AAA Northern Patriot 2,074
78 Lunenburg 56 5 5 4.17 5.83 0.83 225 259 0.46 1 A B James River 521
79 Lord Botetourt 67 4 7 3.18 7.82 0.82 195 285 0.41 3 AA III Blue Ridge 1,040
80 Nansemond River 108 3 7 2.19 7.81 0.81 148 253 0.37 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern 1,365
81 Dan River 14 1 9 0.19 9.81 0.81 47 246 0.16 2 A IV Dogwood 656
82 Heritage(NN) 192 7 4 6.21 4.79 0.79 213 191 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula 1,743
83 Liberty(Beal) 222 7 3 6.21 3.79 0.79 207 168 0.55 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run 1,774
84 Tallwood 145 4 6 3.24 6.76 0.76 173 236 0.42 6 AAA Eastern Beach 2,106
85 Jamestown 112 7 3 6.27 3.73 0.73 260 209 0.55 4 AA I Bay Rivers 1,342
86 Kecoughtan 78 2 8 1.27 8.73 0.73 91 205 0.31 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula 1,900
87 Stonewall Jackson(M) 147 4 6 3.32 6.68 0.68 172 231 0.43 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run 2,243
88 Thomas Jefferson(R) 43 1 9 0.32 9.68 0.68 93 391 0.19 5 AAA Central Colonial 840
89 Salem 195 12 1 11.33 1.67 0.67 366 163 0.69 4 AA IV River Ridge 1,299
90 Denbigh 120 3 7 2.33 7.67 0.67 132 218 0.38 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula 1,753
91 Thomas Jefferson(A) 41 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 85 345 0.20 5 AAA Northern Liberty 1,805
92 York 56 3 7 2.35 7.65 0.65 177 291 0.38 4 AA I Bay Rivers 984
93 Annandale 139 4 6 3.37 6.63 0.63 199 265 0.43 6 AAA Northern Patriot 2,443
94 James Robinson 181 6 6 5.37 6.63 0.63 194 212 0.48 6 AAA Northern Concorde 2,792
95 Jefferson Forest 84 4 6 3.38 6.62 0.62 152 202 0.43 4 AA III Seminole 1,326
96 Battlefield 279 9 2 8.39 2.61 0.61 275 168 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run 2,584
97 Narrows 20 3 7 2.39 7.61 0.61 148 241 0.38 1 A C Mtn. Empire 260
98 Rustburg 34 1 9 0.41 9.59 0.59 73 275 0.21 3 AA III Seminole 932
99 Fairfax 88 2 8 1.42 8.58 0.58 141 301 0.32 6 AAA Northern Concorde 2,179
100 E.C. Glass 41 1 9 0.42 9.58 0.58 79 295 0.21 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley 1,555
101 Deep Creek 128 4 6 3.45 6.55 0.55 170 223 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern 1,393
102 Chancellor 131 6 4 5.45 4.55 0.55 230 213 0.52 4 AA I Battlefield 1,383
103 R.E. Lee(S) 107 2 9 1.48 9.52 0.52 136 298 0.31 5 AAA Northern Patriot 1,921
104 Southampton 39 2 8 1.49 8.51 0.51 158 330 0.32 3 AA I Bay Rivers 942
105 Indian River 199 7 6 6.50 6.50 0.50 202 202 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern 1,809
106 Heritage(Le) 149 8 2 7.51 2.49 0.49 228 143 0.61 4 AA II Dulles 1,728
107 Prince George 127 5 5 4.53 5.47 0.47 204 221 0.48 6 AAA Central Central 1,442
108 Northwood 13 1 9 0.53 9.47 0.47 120 405 0.23 1 A C Hogoheegee 341
109 Westfield ***** 438 15 0 14.55 0.45 0.45 573 132 0.81 6 AAA Northern Concorde 3,213
110 Great Bridge 204 8 3 7.57 3.43 0.43 261 187 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern 1,805
111 Northumberland 10 1 9 0.57 9.43 0.43 113 369 0.23 1 A A Northern Neck 467
112 GW-Danville 239 10 2 9.57 2.43 0.43 430 241 0.64 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley 1,759
113 Armstrong 58 2 8 1.59 8.41 0.41 114 230 0.33 5 AAA Central Capital 1,158
114 Parry McCluer 25 3 7 2.62 7.38 0.38 202 313 0.39 1 A C Pioneer 341
115 Alleghany 67 6 5 5.62 5.38 0.38 277 272 0.50 3 AA III Blue Ridge 843
116 Charlottesville 50 2 8 1.62 8.38 0.38 184 368 0.33 4 AA II Jefferson 1,261
117 Colonial Heights 34 1 9 0.64 9.36 0.36 123 382 0.24 5 AAA Central Central 924
118 Amherst County ***** 241 14 0 13.64 0.36 0.36 696 150 0.82 4 AA III Seminole 1,512
119 Sherando 175 13 1 12.65 1.35 0.35 385 150 0.72 4 AA II Northwestern 1,549
120 Amelia County 20 2 8 1.65 8.35 0.35 174 345 0.34 1 A B James River 570
121 King George 70 5 5 4.67 5.33 0.33 314 332 0.49 4 AA I Battlefield 1,222
122 Nandua 20 1 9 0.67 9.33 0.33 91 276 0.25 2 A I Eastern Shore-AA 736
123 Hayfield 59 1 9 0.71 9.29 0.29 121 357 0.25 5 AAA Northern Patriot 1,630
124 Bluestone 22 1 9 0.72 9.28 0.28 126 371 0.25 3 AA I Southside 749
125 Randolph-Henry 18 1 9 0.72 9.28 0.28 118 347 0.25 2 A B James River 703
126 Brooke Point 243 9 2 8.73 2.27 0.27 309 175 0.64 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth 1,705
127 Woodbridge 280 9 5 8.74 5.26 0.26 295 238 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal 2,661
128 Galax 29 5 5 4.76 5.24 0.24 245 255 0.49 1 A C Mtn. Empire 363
129 Glenvar 22 3 7 2.77 7.23 0.23 162 243 0.40 2 A C Three Rivers 634
130 Mountain View 76 2 8 1.77 8.23 0.23 151 289 0.34 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth 1,926
131 Osbourn Park 120 3 7 2.79 7.21 0.21 160 239 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run 2,590
132 Middlesex 12 1 9 0.80 9.20 0.20 117 328 0.26 2 A A Tidewater 458
133 Forest Park 175 5 5 4.80 5.20 0.20 206 213 0.49 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal 2,354
134 Yorktown 131 5 5 4.82 5.18 0.18 222 229 0.49 5 AAA Northern National 1,893
135 Prince Edward 60 4 6 3.85 6.15 0.15 257 313 0.45 3 AA I Southside 831
136 Essex 79 11 1 10.86 1.14 0.14 455 176 0.72 2 A A Northern Neck 571
137 Twin Springs 14 2 8 1.86 8.14 0.14 164 306 0.35 1 A D Cumberland 236
138 Fort Defiance 32 1 9 0.86 9.14 0.14 94 255 0.27 3 AA III Southern Valley 863
139 Luray 16 1 9 0.88 9.12