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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2000 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Chilhowie 5 5 7.44 2.56 -2.44 19.6 196 132 0.60 2 A C Hogoheegee  10  2   47.2 5
2 New Kent 10 2 11.84 0.16 -1.84 58.4 451 91 0.83 2 A I Bay Rivers  9  2   79.0 -1
3 Glenvar 7 3 8.74 1.26 -1.74 37.2 403 197 0.67 2 A C Three Rivers  6  4   46.0 -1
4 Giles 10 3 11.72 1.28 -1.72 44.1 443 195 0.69 2 A C Three Rivers  8  2   59.4 -2
5 Essex 6 4 7.64 2.36 -1.64 35.7 301 195 0.61 2 A A Northern Neck  9  3   47.0 3
6 George Mason 3 5 4.61 3.39 -1.61 14.5 168 150 0.53 2 A B Bull Run  6  4   32.2 3
7 Lancaster 6 4 7.56 2.44 -1.56 32.0 272 179 0.60 2 A A Northern Neck  0  10   2.9 -6
8 George Wythe(W) 9 2 10.54 0.46 -1.54 46.7 275 86 0.76 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  4   32.5 -3
9 Grayson County 6 4 7.51 2.49 -1.51 23.3 235 156 0.60 2 A C Mtn. Empire  6  3   33.9 0
10 Manassas Park 6 3 7.16 1.84 -1.16 34.7 210 127 0.62 2 A B Bull Run  5  5   31.3 -1
11 Patrick Henry(GS) 6 4 7.14 2.86 -1.14 30.5 237 169 0.58 2 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   15.2 -3
12 Radford 8 4 9.13 2.87 -1.13 46.7 204 133 0.61 2 A C Three Rivers  8  2   55.6 0
13 King William * 12 2 12.93 1.07 -0.93 61.4 445 177 0.72 2 A A Tidewater  6  4   34.3 -6
14 Windsor 2 6 2.67 5.33 -0.67 10.2 148 191 0.44 2 A A Three Rivers  1  7   3.6 -1
15 Honaker 13 1 13.56 0.44 -0.56 48.1 516 145 0.78 2 A D Black Diamond  4  6   17.5 -9
16 Randolph-Henry 4 6 4.39 5.61 -0.39 8.1 209 229 0.48 2 A B James River  4  6   12.3 0
17 Gretna 6 4 6.39 3.61 -0.39 31.4 221 179 0.55 2 A B Dogwood  11  1   61.5 5
18 Fort Chiswell 4 6 4.31 5.69 -0.31 11.0 240 266 0.47 2 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   13.1 -1
19 Dan River 7 3 7.23 2.77 -0.23 45.6 258 181 0.59 2 A IV Dogwood  7  4   43.9 0
20 Washington & Lee 7 4 7.09 3.91 -0.09 46.8 319 256 0.55 2 A A Northern Neck  12  1   65.7 5
21 Clarke County 0 9 0.07 8.93 -0.07 -2.6 65 399 0.14 2 A B Bull Run  3  6   16.6 3
22 Brentsville 4 6 3.91 6.09 0.09 18.8 146 172 0.46 2 A II Bull Run  3  5   21.8 -1
23 John Battle 1 9 0.84 9.16 0.16 0.3 114 276 0.29 2 A C Hogoheegee  0  10   -7.1 -1
24 Arcadia 6 5 5.79 5.21 0.21 32.0 209 201 0.51 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  4  5   28.4 -2
25 James River(B) 1 9 0.76 9.24 0.24 -1.1 147 370 0.28 2 A C Pioneer  6  3   34.1 5
26 Madison County 7 5 6.75 5.25 0.25 41.6 236 215 0.52 2 A B Bull Run  6  6   32.2 -1
27 Nelson County 5 5 4.72 5.28 0.28 34.1 233 243 0.49 2 A B Dogwood  4  6   25.5 -1
28 Lebanon 4 6 3.62 6.38 0.38 31.4 145 179 0.45 2 A C Hogoheegee  7  3   36.6 3
29 Buckingham County 3 7 2.46 7.54 0.54 9.4 193 292 0.40 2 A B James River  8  3   41.7 5
30 Virginia 1 7 0.30 7.70 0.70 12.3 77 257 0.23 2 A IV Highlands  1  8   9.8 0
31 Amelia County 5 6 4.29 6.71 0.71 9.5 228 269 0.46 2 A B James River  4  6   12.4 -1
32 Buffalo Gap 8 5 7.27 5.73 0.73 43.8 273 250 0.52 2 A B Shenandoah  10  3   49.9 2
33 Chatham 3 7 1.68 8.32 1.32 25.9 140 253 0.36 2 A B Dogwood  2  8   11.6 -1
34 Wilson Memorial 2 8 0.57 9.43 1.43 11.5 120 340 0.26 2 A B Shenandoah  3  7   11.4 1
35 Goochland 2 8 0.42 9.58 1.58 2.9 98 313 0.24 2 A B James River  0  10   -8.0 -2
36 Floyd County 4 6 2.19 7.81 1.81 19.2 105 168 0.38 2 A C Three Rivers  12  2   65.5 8
37 Northampton 4 6 2.17 7.83 1.83 35.5 158 254 0.38 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  7  4   41.2 3