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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2004 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 York 8 4 10.62 1.38 -2.62 62.0 317 149 0.68 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   51.7 -1
2 Cave Spring 7 4 9.23 1.77 -2.23 70.3 310 168 0.65 3 AA III River Ridge  10  2   72.7 3
3 Rustburg 3 7 5.15 4.85 -2.15 37.0 187 183 0.51 3 AA III Seminole  2  8   31.2 -1
4 Graham 5 6 7.06 3.94 -2.06 36.8 232 187 0.55 3 AA IV Southwest  8  3   66.2 3
5 Grundy 9 2 10.64 0.36 -1.64 52.7 388 111 0.78 3 AA IV Southwest  2  8   25.6 -7
6 Nandua 5 6 6.54 4.46 -1.54 37.0 226 196 0.54 3 AA I Eastern Shore-AA  7  3   32.3 2
7 Martinsville 5 5 6.53 3.47 -1.53 41.4 230 182 0.56 3 AA IV Piedmont  4  7   48.4 -1
8 Park View(SH) 3 7 4.46 5.54 -1.46 23.2 156 169 0.48 3 AA I Southside  4  6   25.7 1
9 Bruton 5 5 6.45 3.55 -1.45 51.5 206 165 0.56 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  5   36.9 -1
10 Monticello 8 3 9.45 1.55 -1.45 56.7 307 157 0.66 3 AA II Jefferson  8  2   65.2 0
11 Nottoway 5 5 5.91 4.09 -0.91 35.1 227 198 0.53 3 AA I Southside  6  5   39.0 1
12 R.E. Lee(ST) 7 3 7.83 2.17 -0.83 60.3 227 141 0.62 3 AA II Valley  7  4   62.4 0
13 Greensville 8 3 8.76 2.24 -0.76 48.2 303 183 0.62 3 AA I Southside  4  6   29.8 -4
14 Virginia 5 7 5.59 6.41 -0.59 33.3 251 264 0.49 3 AA IV Highlands  4  7   36.3 -1
15 Brentsville 2 8 2.51 7.49 -0.51 29.6 142 213 0.40 3 AA II Northwestern  2  8   36.3 0
16 Hidden Valley 6 5 6.31 4.69 -0.31 64.1 164 147 0.53 3 AA III River Ridge  6  4   54.8 0
17 Handley 9 4 9.27 3.73 -0.27 71.7 339 242 0.58 3 AA II Northwestern  10  2   76.0 1
18 New Kent 6 4 6.10 3.90 -0.10 57.6 261 221 0.54 3 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   21.0 -5
19 Bluestone 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 -1.2 32 463 0.06 3 AA I Southside  1  9   4.2 1
20 Brookville 4 6 4.00 6.00 -0.00 53.8 204 237 0.46 3 AA III Seminole  5  6   53.6 1
21 Poquoson 11 3 10.94 3.06 0.06 72.8 322 201 0.62 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   39.4 -7
22 Millbrook 2 8 1.93 8.07 0.07 33.0 170 289 0.37 3 AA II Northwestern  3  7   36.3 1
23 Loudoun County 2 8 1.76 8.24 0.24 40.1 171 303 0.36 3 AA II Dulles  4  6   41.5 2
24 Broadway 9 3 8.69 3.31 0.31 71.4 216 151 0.59 3 AA II Valley  5  5   46.3 -4
25 Fort Defiance 2 8 1.62 8.38 0.38 35.6 131 241 0.35 3 AA II Valley  4  6   48.5 2
26 Appomattox 1 9 0.60 9.40 0.40 21.8 120 332 0.27 3 AA III Seminole  1  9   20.6 0
27 William Monroe 2 8 1.57 8.43 0.43 25.1 171 319 0.35 3 AA II Jefferson  1  9   19.2 -1
28 Rockbridge County 9 2 8.52 2.48 0.48 70.7 275 174 0.61 3 AA II Valley  6  5   56.2 -3
29 Dan River 1 9 0.50 9.50 0.50 21.6 119 355 0.25 3 AA IV Dogwood  3  7   31.2 2
30 Fluvanna 3 7 2.45 7.55 0.55 29.7 182 276 0.40 3 AA II Jefferson  5  5   43.2 2
31 Brunswick 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 12.7 116 379 0.23 3 AA I Southside  1  9   14.3 0
32 Western Albemarle 3 7 2.27 7.73 0.73 34.2 206 324 0.39 3 AA II Jefferson  5  5   51.7 2
33 Prince Edward 6 4 5.18 4.82 0.82 49.6 266 259 0.51 3 AA I Southside  4  6   25.3 -2
34 Alleghany 2 8 1.13 8.87 0.87 36.0 108 232 0.32 3 AA III Blue Ridge  1  9   20.1 -1
35 Gretna * 14 0 13.10 0.90 0.90 84.4 725 269 0.73 3 AA III Dogwood  10  1   70.0 -4
36 Stuarts Draft 3 7 2.08 7.92 0.92 34.6 153 251 0.38 3 AA II Valley  0  10   21.0 -3
37 Dominion 3 7 1.81 8.19 1.19 27.7 152 266 0.36 3 AA II Dulles  3  7   30.2 0
38 Southampton 2 8 0.65 9.35 1.35 36.3 102 274 0.27 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   35.1 2
39 Waynesboro 3 7 0.97 9.03 2.03 40.1 109 249 0.30 3 AA II Valley  2  8   34.0 -1
40 Tazewell 8 5 5.85 7.15 2.15 51.0 234 252 0.48 3 AA IV Southwest  6  4   50.8 -2
41 Christiansburg 9 3 6.83 5.17 2.17 79.1 346 312 0.53 3 AA III River Ridge  6  5   54.4 -3
42 Lord Botetourt 5 5 2.01 7.99 2.99 58.4 154 257 0.37 3 AA III Blue Ridge  1  9   26.5 -4