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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2006 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Manchester 5 5 8.11 1.89 -3.11 54.9 233 136 0.63 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   79.7 3
2 James Robinson 6 4 8.79 1.21 -2.79 92.1 225 108 0.68 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  6   92.5 0
3 Ocean Lakes 4 6 6.45 3.55 -2.45 68.9 242 194 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   86.7 4
4 L.C. Bird 8 3 10.38 0.62 -2.38 72.3 318 112 0.74 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  1   91.3 2
5 Highland Springs 9 3 11.16 0.84 -2.16 86.2 323 124 0.72 6 AAA Central Capital  10  1   95.1 1
6 Meadowbrook 6 4 8.02 1.98 -2.02 59.6 242 144 0.63 6 AAA Central Central  9  3   86.8 3
7 Kempsville 4 6 6.02 3.98 -2.02 68.7 240 206 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   40.2 -4
8 Centreville 6 4 8.00 2.00 -2.00 86.9 316 189 0.63 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   85.6 0
9 Hermitage 7 3 8.95 1.05 -1.95 81.8 330 149 0.69 6 AAA Central Colonial  11  2   96.0 4
10 Annandale 6 5 7.75 3.25 -1.75 86.7 233 169 0.58 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   74.1 -2
11 C.D. Hylton 8 2 9.64 0.36 -1.64 95.5 301 89 0.77 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   65.5 -5
12 South County 6 4 7.57 2.43 -1.57 77.4 256 168 0.60 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   87.2 0
13 Langley 4 6 5.56 4.44 -1.56 69.2 162 149 0.52 6 AAA Northern Liberty  6  4   83.1 2
14 Varina 11 2 12.54 0.46 -1.54 94.1 364 107 0.77 6 AAA Central Capital  7  3   84.0 -4
15 Patrick Henry(A) 8 2 9.49 0.51 -1.49 80.4 312 106 0.75 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  5   68.2 -1
16 Herndon 6 4 7.32 2.68 -1.32 87.7 270 186 0.59 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   78.8 -1
17 Oscar Smith 10 2 11.29 0.71 -1.29 99.2 404 145 0.74 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  13  1   106.9 3
18 Hickory 6 4 7.26 2.74 -1.26 84.7 290 202 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   59.9 -3
19 Woodbridge 8 4 9.26 2.74 -1.26 96.0 289 184 0.61 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  5   90.1 1
20 West Springfield 4 6 5.26 4.74 -1.26 70.5 420 404 0.51 6 AAA Northern Patriot  10  3   104.9 6
21 Gar-Field 7 4 8.25 2.75 -1.25 89.5 248 165 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  5   85.9 0
22 Osbourn Park 5 5 6.19 3.81 -1.19 79.9 194 162 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   66.0 -2
23 Lake Braddock 6 4 7.14 2.86 -1.14 83.8 212 151 0.58 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  3   92.5 2
24 Bayside 5 5 6.05 3.95 -1.05 74.8 226 193 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  4   81.2 2
25 Landstown 8 2 9.01 0.99 -1.01 91.7 249 110 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   70.6 -3
26 Oakton 6 5 6.99 4.01 -0.99 92.5 264 215 0.55 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   85.6 -1
27 GW-Danville 7 4 7.97 3.03 -0.97 79.8 256 179 0.59 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  10  2   93.4 3
28 Salem(VB) 12 1 12.81 0.19 -0.81 107.1 485 102 0.83 6 AAA Eastern Beach  12  1   101.6 0
29 Great Bridge 4 6 4.80 5.20 -0.80 72.9 232 239 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  3   88.0 4
30 Clover Hill 9 2 9.43 1.57 -0.43 70.5 245 126 0.66 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   51.1 -6
31 Chantilly 10 4 10.37 3.63 -0.37 103.5 301 204 0.60 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  3   97.9 -2
32 Prince George 1 9 1.25 8.75 -0.25 38.2 146 300 0.33 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   61.4 4
33 Thomas Dale 7 3 7.19 2.81 -0.19 71.6 201 142 0.59 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   69.2 -2
34 Stafford 6 4 6.10 3.90 -0.10 73.5 171 145 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   62.9 -3
35 Forest Park 0 9 0.09 8.91 -0.09 54.1 66 363 0.15 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   72.8 5
36 Westfield 11 1 11.08 0.92 -0.08 110.6 299 119 0.72 6 AAA Northern Concorde  15  0   118.6 4
37 Princess Anne 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 44.3 43 364 0.11 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   46.3 1
38 Western Branch 9 2 8.94 2.06 0.06 97.0 329 191 0.63 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  2   97.5 1
39 Douglas Freeman 3 7 2.91 7.09 0.09 44.2 171 238 0.42 6 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   53.1 0
40 Bethel 4 6 3.79 6.21 0.21 70.4 135 162 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  2   96.9 6
41 Riverbend 5 5 4.79 5.21 0.21 60.1 282 291 0.49 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   50.3 -3
42 James River(C) 3 7 2.78 7.22 0.22 41.7 201 286 0.41 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   72.2 4
43 Franklin County 7 3 6.76 3.24 0.24 75.9 201 153 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   61.3 -3
44 Mills Godwin 6 4 5.52 4.48 0.48 72.6 189 175 0.52 6 AAA Central Colonial  8  2   83.2 2
45 Green Run 1 9 0.45 9.55 0.55 50.4 112 348 0.24 6 AAA Eastern Beach  10  2   93.1 9
46 Deep Creek 8 2 7.37 2.63 0.63 92.9 211 144 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   66.8 -4
47 First Colonial 5 5 4.33 5.67 0.67 75.0 227 251 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   58.5 -2
48 Granby 2 8 1.29 8.71 0.71 53.7 113 229 0.33 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   46.6 0
49 Midlothian 1 9 0.26 9.74 0.74 29.4 65 250 0.21 6 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   40.0 1
50 Gloucester 1 9 0.23 9.77 0.77 53.5 60 242 0.20 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   47.9 0
51 Fairfax 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 61.5 82 343 0.19 6 AAA Northern Concorde  2  8   61.1 1
52 Osbourn * 14 0 13.19 0.81 0.81 115.5 493 175 0.74 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   73.2 -10
53 R.E. Lee(S) 5 5 4.19 5.81 0.81 77.7 195 220 0.47 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  9   67.9 -3
54 Kellam 7 3 6.17 3.83 0.83 87.0 247 207 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   71.3 -2
55 Tallwood 8 3 7.10 3.90 0.90 92.6 191 153 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   64.5 -4
56 Culpeper County 2 8 1.03 8.97 0.97 62.8 141 314 0.31 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   52.2 0
57 Menchville 2 8 1.00 9.00 1.00 56.4 115 260 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   52.1 0
58 Stonewall Jackson(M) 4 5 2.77 6.23 1.23 79.7 226 305 0.43 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   66.0 0
59 West Potomac 6 4 4.66 5.34 1.34 80.4 330 347 0.49 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  4   92.5 2
60 T.C. Williams 4 6 2.57 7.43 1.43 65.6 197 292 0.40 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   74.4 0
61 Frank Cox 3 7 1.49 8.51 1.51 62.6 126 240 0.34 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   59.1 0
62 North Stafford 3 7 1.49 8.51 1.51 60.6 116 221 0.34 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   66.5 1
63 W.T. Woodson 5 5 3.20 6.80 1.80 74.1 158 209 0.43 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   79.8 0
64 Monacan 3 7 1.01 8.99 1.99 37.4 110 247 0.31 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  5   67.6 3