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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2009 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Bethel 6 5 9.45 1.55 -3.45 78.5 356 182 0.66 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  4   80.8 0
2 Hampton 8 4 11.03 0.97 -3.03 87.4 350 142 0.71 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  11  2   104.3 3
3 Green Run 5 5 7.47 2.53 -2.47 73.1 224 150 0.60 5 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   71.7 0
4 James Madison 7 5 9.37 2.63 -2.37 71.9 248 155 0.62 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   53.7 -5
5 Lake Taylor 10 3 12.24 0.76 -2.24 93.6 381 136 0.74 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  4   83.6 -3
6 Massaponax 10 3 12.17 0.83 -2.17 87.4 464 172 0.73 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  4   82.4 -2
7 Kellam 3 7 5.13 4.87 -2.13 67.8 202 198 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   59.6 0
8 Petersburg 6 6 7.68 4.32 -1.68 66.0 303 245 0.55 5 AAA Central Central  7  3   73.6 1
9 Osbourn 9 4 10.67 2.33 -1.67 86.8 422 240 0.64 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  12  1   99.0 3
10 Dinwiddie 6 5 7.52 3.48 -1.52 66.5 351 264 0.57 5 AAA Central Central  12  1   97.0 6
11 Norcom 8 3 9.48 1.52 -1.48 84.0 278 141 0.66 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  10  2   90.9 2
12 North Stafford 7 4 8.43 2.57 -1.43 80.2 289 186 0.61 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   67.9 -2
13 Halifax County 1 9 2.34 7.66 -1.34 38.9 161 250 0.39 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   26.0 0
14 Yorktown 6 5 7.22 3.78 -1.22 51.9 286 225 0.56 5 AAA Northern National  9  2   72.5 3
15 Monacan 3 7 4.20 5.80 -1.20 47.2 166 187 0.47 5 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   56.8 2
16 Hayfield 9 3 10.11 1.89 -1.11 69.6 415 223 0.65 5 AAA Northern National  8  5   65.7 -1
17 Clover Hill 8 3 9.03 1.97 -1.03 69.4 260 148 0.64 5 AAA Central Dominion  8  3   71.9 0
18 Churchland 7 4 7.98 3.02 -0.98 85.8 251 175 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  4   84.7 0
19 Thomas Edison 7 4 7.86 3.14 -0.86 62.4 292 208 0.58 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   50.0 -4
20 Patrick Henry(A) 3 7 3.83 6.17 -0.83 46.7 207 247 0.46 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   59.3 2
21 Mount Vernon 0 10 0.77 9.23 -0.77 19.9 140 351 0.29 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   57.7 5
22 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.71 9.29 -0.71 21.2 153 396 0.28 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   18.3 0
23 Potomac 2 8 2.61 7.39 -0.61 56.4 117 172 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   76.2 3
24 South Lakes 5 6 5.59 5.41 -0.59 56.6 258 255 0.50 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  4   74.1 3
25 J.E.B. Stuart 3 7 3.51 6.49 -0.51 38.6 219 275 0.44 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   49.7 2
26 Atlee 5 5 5.48 4.52 -0.48 58.4 217 202 0.52 5 AAA Central Capital  6  4   70.6 1
27 Indian River 0 10 0.40 9.60 -0.40 42.5 90 291 0.24 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   68.6 5
28 Hanover 9 4 9.39 3.61 -0.39 78.4 359 252 0.59 5 AAA Central Capital  11  1   94.8 2
29 William Fleming 6 3 6.37 2.63 -0.37 70.9 229 165 0.58 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   32.8 -5
30 Warwick 6 5 6.35 4.65 -0.35 75.1 230 205 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   83.1 0
31 Freedom 0 10 0.11 9.89 -0.11 41.3 60 318 0.16 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   60.3 1
32 Albemarle 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 37.1 86 481 0.15 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   48.6 3
33 George Wythe(R) 0 9 0.07 8.93 -0.07 23.8 53 312 0.15 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   20.8 0
34 Thomas Jefferson(A) 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 26.8 35 374 0.09 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   36.5 1
35 Princess Anne 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 42.7 30 416 0.07 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   40.4 0
36 R.E. Lee(S) 9 4 8.97 4.03 0.03 84.3 332 247 0.57 5 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   44.9 -8
37 Wakefield 1 9 0.91 9.09 0.09 27.6 161 377 0.30 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   28.0 0
38 Armstrong 1 9 0.88 9.12 0.12 30.3 155 368 0.30 5 AAA Central Capital  3  7   45.7 2
39 Douglas Freeman 2 8 1.88 8.12 0.12 42.0 142 244 0.37 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   42.8 1
40 Phoebus * 15 0 14.84 0.16 0.16 109.9 497 92 0.84 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  15  0   115.3 0
41 Brooke Point 7 5 6.81 5.19 0.19 81.5 294 266 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  6   70.8 -2
42 Mountain View 4 6 3.78 6.22 0.22 64.4 243 292 0.45 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  4   82.4 4
43 McLean 6 5 5.55 5.45 0.45 60.9 291 289 0.50 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   76.5 2
44 Stone Bridge 13 2 12.49 2.51 0.51 92.3 417 230 0.64 5 AAA Northern Liberty  14  1   99.0 1
45 John Marshall 5 5 4.47 5.53 0.53 52.0 195 211 0.48 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   29.7 -3
46 George Marshall 1 9 0.41 9.59 0.59 37.2 91 293 0.24 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   43.7 0
47 Kings Fork 3 7 2.33 7.67 0.67 60.1 130 202 0.39 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   55.3 0
48 Heritage(NN) 1 9 0.30 9.70 0.70 50.5 97 350 0.22 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   48.9 -1
49 Lakeland 6 4 5.22 4.78 0.78 75.4 185 179 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   34.5 -6
50 Great Bridge 9 3 8.17 3.83 0.83 89.3 323 244 0.57 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  2   90.9 1
51 Falls Church 5 5 4.08 5.92 0.92 47.8 249 286 0.47 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   27.8 -4
52 Heritage(Le) 2 8 1.00 9.00 1.00 66.0 135 304 0.31 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  1  9   60.1 -1
53 Booker T. Washington 5 5 3.98 6.02 1.02 76.2 229 267 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   83.1 3
54 Midlothian 2 8 0.94 9.06 1.06 38.0 115 266 0.30 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   48.6 2
55 Hopewell 2 8 0.78 9.22 1.22 44.6 130 324 0.29 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   55.6 2
56 Nansemond River 2 8 0.71 9.29 1.29 51.0 85 220 0.28 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  9   40.6 -1
57 Huguenot 3 7 1.63 8.37 1.37 46.6 148 271 0.35 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   31.8 -2
58 Woodrow Wilson 2 8 0.60 9.40 1.40 52.9 99 274 0.27 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   56.2 2
59 Stafford 2 8 0.54 9.46 1.46 58.0 107 309 0.26 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  6   69.6 3
60 GW-Danville 5 5 3.16 6.84 1.84 66.4 214 285 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   60.4 0
61 Washington-Lee 5 5 3.00 7.00 2.00 49.3 176 241 0.42 5 AAA Northern National  6  6   55.1 1
62 Deep Creek 5 5 2.72 7.28 2.28 72.2 116 167 0.41 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   68.1 0
63 Colonial Heights 4 6 1.02 8.98 2.98 50.0 131 293 0.31 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   35.6 -2
64 Denbigh 5 5 1.10 8.90 3.90 72.2 142 308 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   70.3 -1