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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2013 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Kettle Run 7 5 10.01 1.99 -3.01 55.3 315 173 0.65 3 AA II Evergreen  6  5   61.2 -1
2 Hidden Valley 7 6 9.44 3.56 -2.44 65.1 294 205 0.59 3 AA IV River Ridge  8  3   68.6 1
3 Tunstall 5 6 6.80 4.20 -1.80 38.5 305 255 0.54 3 AA IV Piedmont  7  4   56.5 2
4 Lord Botetourt 10 2 11.70 0.30 -1.70 74.0 426 110 0.79 3 AA III Blue Ridge  7  4   54.9 -3
5 Christiansburg 7 4 8.41 2.59 -1.41 66.1 359 232 0.61 3 AA IV River Ridge  6  6   57.2 -1
6 Central(W) 10 3 11.38 1.62 -1.38 59.6 510 248 0.67 3 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  4  6   17.9 -6
7 James Monroe 10 5 11.30 3.70 -1.30 79.0 393 260 0.60 3 AA I Battlefield  11  3   71.8 1
8 Spotswood 9 2 10.05 0.95 -1.05 64.7 400 167 0.71 3 AA III Valley  3  7   22.9 -6
9 Broadway 3 7 4.02 5.98 -1.02 25.7 195 226 0.46 3 AA III Valley  9  3   49.7 6
10 Loudoun Valley 11 3 12.00 2.00 -1.00 70.8 377 194 0.66 3 AA II Dulles  9  4   69.8 -2
11 Magna Vista 11 2 11.95 1.05 -0.95 76.1 512 208 0.71 3 AA IV Piedmont  14  1   80.1 3
12 Liberty(Bed) 7 4 7.89 3.11 -0.89 60.4 401 284 0.59 3 AA III Seminole  8  3   64.2 1
13 Turner Ashby 3 7 3.87 6.13 -0.87 29.2 297 352 0.46 3 AA III Valley  2  8   18.9 -1
14 Lafayette 12 1 12.76 0.24 -0.76 78.6 608 140 0.81 3 AA I Bay Rivers  14  1   76.3 2
15 John Marshall 0 10 0.75 9.25 -0.75 19.9 148 376 0.28 3 AAA Central Colonial  1  9   33.0 1
16 Blacksburg 4 6 4.65 5.35 -0.65 44.7 207 218 0.49 3 AA IV River Ridge  6  5   54.4 2
17 Park View(SH) 7 4 7.53 3.47 -0.53 33.5 384 288 0.57 3 AA I Southside  4  6   17.4 -3
18 Petersburg 3 8 3.50 7.50 -0.50 46.7 270 358 0.43 3 AAA Central Central  6  7   61.7 3
19 York 4 7 4.41 6.59 -0.41 46.5 156 181 0.46 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  5   50.1 3
20 Monticello 10 2 10.40 1.60 -0.40 68.0 490 245 0.67 3 AA II Jefferson  9  3   63.8 -1
21 Brentsville 0 10 0.37 9.63 -0.37 11.8 124 414 0.23 3 AA II Evergreen  2  8   29.6 2
22 Poquoson 8 4 8.23 3.77 -0.23 58.5 355 266 0.57 3 AA I Bay Rivers  9  3   55.5 1
23 Waynesboro 1 9 1.19 8.81 -0.19 25.7 197 413 0.32 3 AA III Valley  7  6   40.9 6
24 Stuarts Draft 7 4 7.18 3.82 -0.18 46.4 273 216 0.56 3 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  3  7   22.2 -4
25 Northside * 14 1 14.18 0.82 -0.18 88.4 512 178 0.74 3 AA III Blue Ridge  10  3   68.1 -4
26 Colonial Heights 0 10 0.14 9.86 -0.14 22.2 107 521 0.17 3 AAA Central Central  2  8   39.2 2
27 Patrick County 0 10 0.10 9.90 -0.10 7.3 114 623 0.15 3 AA IV Piedmont  2  8   24.6 2
28 Rustburg 6 5 6.09 4.91 -0.09 57.8 286 264 0.52 3 AA III Seminole  3  7   49.2 -3
29 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 27.8 52 412 0.11 3 AAA Central Dominion  0  9   40.1 0
30 Armstrong 3 8 2.93 8.07 0.07 35.4 228 332 0.41 3 AAA Central Capital  6  5   61.2 3
31 Abingdon 3 6 2.93 6.07 0.07 28.0 219 287 0.43 3 AA IV Southwest  8  3   52.7 5
32 Thomas Jefferson(R) 3 8 2.90 8.10 0.10 35.4 203 297 0.41 3 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   36.3 -1
33 Warhill 2 8 1.90 8.10 0.10 33.2 198 339 0.37 3 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   30.7 1
34 Culpeper County 4 6 3.71 6.29 0.29 39.6 203 247 0.45 3 AA II Evergreen  3  8   37.5 -1
35 Alleghany 4 6 3.68 6.32 0.32 43.7 208 254 0.45 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   26.3 -1
36 Manassas Park 2 8 1.59 8.41 0.41 14.1 116 215 0.35 3 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  1  9   0.8 -1
37 Western Albemarle 10 2 9.47 2.53 0.53 68.0 478 293 0.62 3 AA II Jefferson  11  3   64.9 1
38 Hopewell 6 6 5.31 6.69 0.69 58.8 312 340 0.48 3 AAA Central Central  5  7   59.3 -1
39 Fort Defiance 5 5 4.23 5.77 0.77 41.1 238 267 0.47 3 AA III Valley  1  9   10.6 -4
40 Warren County 8 4 7.15 4.85 0.85 45.0 306 265 0.54 3 AA II Evergreen  4  7   23.0 -4
41 William Byrd 9 3 8.13 3.87 0.87 76.1 337 256 0.57 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   41.3 -6
42 William Monroe 3 8 2.07 8.93 0.93 22.6 227 390 0.37 3 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  6  5   31.8 3
43 Heritage(Lyn) 13 1 12.05 1.95 0.95 78.5 495 252 0.66 3 AA III Seminole  8  3   67.0 -5
44 Huguenot 1 9 0.04 9.96 0.96 31.5 55 431 0.11 3 AAA Central Dominion  1  10   47.1 0
45 Staunton River 2 8 1.04 8.96 0.96 31.0 161 358 0.31 3 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   30.0 0
46 Rockbridge County 2 8 0.87 9.13 1.13 32.2 135 323 0.29 3 AA III Blue Ridge  0  10   12.8 -2
47 New Kent 2 8 0.56 9.44 1.44 31.0 119 339 0.26 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   23.3 0
48 Brookville 5 6 3.32 7.68 1.68 49.9 230 314 0.42 3 AA III Seminole  8  4   64.6 3
49 Southampton 2 8 0.14 9.86 1.86 16.9 72 349 0.17 3 AA I Southside  4  7   21.3 2
50 John Champe 2 8 0.05 9.95 1.95 33.9 35 250 0.12 3 AA II Dulles  8  4   59.4 6
51 Spotsylvania 3 8 0.69 10.31 2.31 36.3 139 378 0.27 3 AA I Battlefield  2  8   26.6 -1
52 Cave Spring 5 6 1.95 9.05 3.05 55.1 195 344 0.36 3 AA IV River Ridge  6  5   58.2 1
53 Skyline 4 7 0.92 10.08 3.08 25.8 146 355 0.29 3 AA II Northwestern  7  4   50.6 3