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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2015 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Poquoson 10 3 12.17 0.83 -2.17 62.4 405 150 0.73 3 AA I Bay Rivers  6  5   50.4 -4
2 Rustburg 6 5 7.86 3.14 -1.86 63.3 316 225 0.58 3 AA III Seminole  10  3   78.9 4
3 James Monroe 10 3 11.75 1.25 -1.75 75.8 495 216 0.70 3 AA I Battlefield  9  3   67.6 -1
4 Staunton River 8 5 9.46 3.54 -1.46 71.1 541 376 0.59 3 AA III Blue Ridge  13  2   80.5 5
5 Brookville 8 4 9.40 2.60 -1.40 73.6 399 248 0.62 3 AA III Seminole  9  3   71.6 1
6 York 7 5 8.15 3.85 -1.15 56.1 256 194 0.57 3 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   23.7 -6
7 Lord Botetourt 13 2 14.09 0.91 -1.09 82.1 552 200 0.73 3 AA III Blue Ridge  8  3   62.4 -5
8 Heritage(Lyn) 4 7 5.00 6.00 -1.00 56.0 289 309 0.48 3 AA III Seminole  8  5   72.4 4
9 John Marshall 2 8 3.00 7.00 -1.00 33.0 220 301 0.42 3 AA Central Colonial  1  9   24.6 -1
10 Christiansburg 2 8 2.99 7.01 -0.99 33.5 219 300 0.42 3 AA IV River Ridge  1  9   30.5 -1
11 Phoebus 12 2 12.99 1.01 -0.99 82.3 412 160 0.72 3 AA Eastern Peninsula  11  3   82.9 -1
12 Northside 9 3 9.95 2.05 -0.95 78.5 307 171 0.64 3 AA III Blue Ridge  5  7   57.6 -4
13 Magna Vista * 13 2 13.91 1.09 -0.91 83.0 665 259 0.72 3 AA IV Piedmont  9  3   64.6 -4
14 Warhill 3 7 3.86 6.14 -0.86 38.3 182 216 0.46 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  7   39.5 1
15 Booker T. Washington 3 7 3.84 6.16 -0.84 39.3 168 200 0.46 3 AA Eastern Eastern  1  9   25.3 -2
16 Hopewell 11 3 11.82 2.18 -0.82 81.2 522 279 0.65 3 AA Central Central  10  4   76.3 -1
17 Park View(SH) 8 3 8.70 2.30 -0.70 41.8 368 225 0.62 3 AA I Tri-Rivers  8  2   50.9 0
18 Spotswood 3 7 3.39 6.61 -0.39 39.9 207 265 0.44 3 AA III Valley  8  4   53.7 5
19 Riverside 0 10 0.38 9.62 -0.38 6.5 137 455 0.23 3 AA Dulles  2  8   17.3 2
20 Fluvanna 0 10 0.26 9.74 -0.26 21.8 113 431 0.21 3 AA II Jefferson  1  9   29.8 1
21 William Monroe 2 8 2.19 7.81 -0.19 25.3 173 277 0.38 3 AA D-2 Eastern Bull Run  6  5   46.7 4
22 Manassas Park 0 10 0.18 9.82 -0.18 23.2 102 445 0.19 3 AA D-2 Eastern Evergreen  2  8   31.8 2
23 Monticello 8 4 8.14 3.86 -0.14 67.0 273 207 0.57 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   43.7 -5
24 Fort Defiance 0 10 0.10 9.90 -0.10 15.7 94 518 0.15 3 AA III Valley  0  10   12.7 0
25 Waynesboro 6 5 6.05 4.95 -0.05 50.7 253 235 0.52 3 AA III Valley  5  6   45.5 -1
26 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 22.2 38 461 0.08 3 AA Central Dominion  1  10   39.4 1
27 Cave Spring 2 8 2.01 7.99 -0.01 36.6 154 257 0.37 3 AA IV River Ridge  3  7   41.9 1
28 Brentsville 7 5 6.84 5.16 0.16 48.4 252 227 0.53 3 AA II Evergreen  10  3   68.5 3
29 Broadway 3 7 2.75 7.25 0.25 31.6 211 302 0.41 3 AA III Valley  1  9   16.4 -2
30 Norcom 1 9 0.71 9.29 0.29 40.0 116 300 0.28 3 AA Eastern Eastern  6  5   58.1 5
31 Culpeper County 5 6 4.71 6.29 0.29 43.1 246 274 0.47 3 AA II Evergreen  3  8   37.1 -2
32 Hidden Valley 3 8 2.56 8.44 0.44 43.3 307 478 0.39 3 AA IV River Ridge  5  6   54.4 2
33 Alleghany 4 7 3.46 7.54 0.54 47.8 218 291 0.43 3 AA III Blue Ridge  4  7   43.5 0
34 Petersburg 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 38.6 128 414 0.24 3 AA Central Central  5  7   54.6 4
35 New Kent 2 8 1.39 8.61 0.61 27.3 142 279 0.34 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   34.1 2
36 Turner Ashby 6 5 5.38 5.62 0.62 47.8 370 376 0.50 3 AA III Valley  6  5   42.7 0
37 Southampton 2 8 1.37 8.63 0.63 9.5 148 293 0.34 3 AA I Tri-Rivers  6  4   43.8 4
38 Spotsylvania 3 8 2.35 8.65 0.65 39.5 189 306 0.38 3 AA I Battlefield  1  9   28.1 -2
39 Abingdon 11 2 10.33 2.67 0.67 67.0 525 318 0.62 3 AA IV Southwest  9  2   72.4 -2
40 Western Albemarle 10 2 9.26 2.74 0.74 72.3 509 324 0.61 3 AA II Jefferson  4  7   51.0 -6
41 Rockbridge County 1 9 0.23 9.77 0.77 35.5 97 388 0.20 3 AA III Blue Ridge  0  10   24.7 -1
42 Warren County 2 8 1.12 8.88 0.88 14.8 165 355 0.32 3 AA II Bull Run  3  6   28.0 1
43 Blacksburg 6 5 5.09 5.91 0.91 58.0 316 334 0.49 3 AA IV River Ridge  10  5   72.4 4
44 Tunstall 2 8 0.53 9.47 1.47 30.8 109 317 0.26 3 AA IV Piedmont  5  6   42.7 3
45 Patrick County 2 8 0.51 9.49 1.49 19.2 121 358 0.25 3 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   6.1 -1
46 Thomas Jefferson(R) 3 7 1.48 8.52 1.52 34.3 159 304 0.34 3 AA Central Colonial  4  6   43.2 1
47 Armstrong 2 9 0.29 10.71 1.71 46.2 136 515 0.21 3 AA Central Capital  0  10   24.0 -2
48 Lakeland 3 9 1.02 10.98 1.98 51.9 154 371 0.29 3 AA Eastern Southeastern  7  6   65.7 4
49 Liberty(Bed) 4 7 1.98 9.02 2.02 50.8 301 528 0.36 3 AA III Seminole  2  8   42.1 -2
50 Tabb 4 7 1.68 9.32 2.32 43.5 173 326 0.35 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  5   55.5 3
51 Colonial Heights 4 7 1.09 9.91 2.91 41.0 190 430 0.31 3 AA Central Central  0  10   28.2 -4
52 Skyline 6 6 2.76 9.24 3.24 47.5 269 421 0.39 3 AA II Northwestern  2  8   24.2 -4