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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2001 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 George Wythe(W) 6 4 9.00 1.00 -3.00 32.5 255 113 0.69 2 A C Hogoheegee  13  1   68.5 7
2 King William 6 4 8.50 1.50 -2.50 34.3 308 162 0.66 2 A A Tidewater  6  4   30.0 0
3 Lunenburg 7 4 9.05 1.95 -2.05 32.1 339 192 0.64 2 A B James River  8  4   49.6 1
4 George Mason 6 4 7.98 2.02 -1.98 32.2 226 136 0.62 2 A B Bull Run  2  7   9.4 -4
5 Lebanon 7 3 8.95 1.05 -1.95 36.6 221 100 0.69 2 A C Hogoheegee  8  3   45.1 1
6 Buffalo Gap 10 3 11.76 1.24 -1.76 49.9 386 168 0.70 2 A B Shenandoah  7  4   34.6 -3
7 James River(B) 6 3 7.52 1.48 -1.52 34.1 254 139 0.65 2 A C Pioneer  7  2   36.0 1
8 Radford 8 2 9.37 0.63 -1.37 55.6 293 108 0.73 2 A C Three Rivers  9  2   52.9 1
9 Floyd County 12 2 13.22 0.78 -1.22 65.5 377 132 0.74 2 A C Three Rivers  11  1   59.5 -1
10 Windsor 1 7 2.21 5.79 -1.21 3.6 140 200 0.41 2 A A Three Rivers  1  7   4.3 0
11 Giles 8 2 9.15 0.85 -1.15 59.4 316 131 0.71 2 A C Three Rivers  5  4   33.6 -3
12 Gate City 10 3 11.11 1.89 -1.11 56.5 374 194 0.66 2 A D Lonesome Pine  11  1   67.1 1
13 Grayson County 6 3 6.96 2.04 -0.96 33.9 315 200 0.61 2 A C Mtn. Empire  3  5   14.1 -3
14 Randolph-Henry 4 6 4.94 5.06 -0.94 12.3 222 224 0.50 2 A B James River  4  6   31.2 0
15 Nandua 5 4 5.90 3.10 -0.90 36.3 240 189 0.56 2 A I Eastern Shore-AA  6  3   30.3 1
16 Buckingham County 8 3 8.85 2.15 -0.85 41.7 277 164 0.63 2 A B James River  12  2   67.6 4
17 Chilhowie 10 2 10.71 1.29 -0.71 47.2 293 134 0.69 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  4   27.3 -4
18 Chatham 2 8 2.64 7.36 -0.64 11.6 221 323 0.41 2 A B Dogwood  1  9   18.4 -1
19 Washington & Lee * 12 1 12.45 0.55 -0.45 65.7 415 131 0.76 2 A A Northern Neck  10  3   42.4 -2
20 Madison County 6 6 6.43 5.57 -0.43 32.2 211 200 0.51 2 A B Bull Run  2  8   9.4 -4
21 Goochland 0 10 0.24 9.76 -0.24 -8.0 85 334 0.20 2 A B James River  1  9   9.1 1
22 Lancaster 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 2.9 87 528 0.14 2 A A Northern Neck  3  7   15.1 3
23 John Battle 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 -7.1 24 485 0.05 2 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   5.6 1
24 Essex 9 3 8.85 3.15 0.15 47.0 368 251 0.59 2 A A Northern Neck  8  3   42.4 -1
25 Glenvar 6 4 5.71 4.29 0.29 46.0 268 241 0.53 2 A C Three Rivers  2  8   8.2 -4
26 Patrick Henry(GS) 3 7 2.64 7.36 0.36 15.2 191 279 0.41 2 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   17.1 0
27 Brentsville 3 5 2.44 5.56 0.56 21.8 112 152 0.42 2 A II Bull Run  7  3   37.0 4
28 Clarke County 3 6 2.13 6.87 0.87 16.6 147 227 0.39 2 A B Bull Run  4  5   21.4 1
29 Arcadia 4 5 3.01 5.99 0.99 28.4 152 196 0.44 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  0  9   -4.7 -4
30 Honaker 4 6 3.00 7.00 1.00 17.5 185 253 0.42 2 A D Black Diamond  10  2   49.5 6
31 James Monroe 4 6 2.95 7.05 1.05 30.7 173 239 0.42 2 A I Battlefield  9  3   42.4 5
32 Fort Chiswell 3 7 1.88 8.12 1.12 13.1 181 311 0.37 2 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   3.6 -1
33 Wilson Memorial 3 7 1.36 8.64 1.64 11.4 110 218 0.34 2 A B Shenandoah  5  5   10.7 2