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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2001 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 William Fleming 5 5 6.80 3.20 -1.80 60.5 172 130 0.57 4 AA III Blue Ridge  7  4   59.4 2
2 Martinsville 9 2 10.65 0.35 -1.65 60.7 274 77 0.78 4 AA IV Piedmont  4  6   36.2 -5
3 Marion 10 3 11.62 1.38 -1.62 60.8 372 169 0.69 4 AA IV Highlands  6  5   42.0 -4
4 Salem 8 4 9.43 2.57 -1.43 74.7 283 175 0.62 4 AA IV River Ridge  5  5   46.5 -3
5 Tunstall 6 4 7.20 2.80 -1.20 41.7 227 160 0.59 4 AA IV Piedmont  6  4   50.6 0
6 Northside 5 5 6.09 3.91 -1.09 61.1 211 179 0.54 4 AA III Blue Ridge  10  1   74.3 5
7 Turner Ashby 9 2 10.08 0.92 -1.08 80.3 260 107 0.71 4 AA II Valley  7  3   67.2 -2
8 King George 8 4 9.06 2.94 -1.06 70.1 375 247 0.60 4 AA I Battlefield  1  9   26.8 -7
9 Pulaski County 12 2 13.04 0.96 -1.04 82.8 606 231 0.72 4 AA III Blue Ridge  5  5   49.1 -7
10 Amherst County 5 5 5.92 4.08 -0.92 52.1 194 169 0.53 4 AA III Seminole  4  6   45.0 -1
11 Liberty(Beal) 11 1 11.89 0.11 -0.89 88.1 444 79 0.85 4 AA II Northwestern  6  4   60.3 -5
12 Richlands 8 2 8.80 1.20 -0.80 65.0 236 113 0.68 4 AA IV Southwest  8  3   66.4 0
13 Park View(St) 9 1 9.74 0.26 -0.74 83.2 290 76 0.79 4 AA II Dulles  9  2   67.6 0
14 Carroll County 0 10 0.68 9.32 -0.68 16.5 137 362 0.27 4 AA IV Southwest  5  5   44.3 5
15 Lafayette * 11 2 11.56 1.44 -0.56 88.5 383 177 0.68 4 AA I Bay Rivers  10  3   76.5 -1
16 Stone Bridge 6 3 6.56 2.44 -0.56 62.5 281 195 0.59 4 AA Northern Liberty  10  3   74.2 4
17 Fauquier 4 5 4.50 4.50 -0.50 60.6 208 208 0.50 4 AA Northwest Cedar Run  8  4   68.6 4
18 Chancellor 8 3 8.50 2.50 -0.50 66.2 258 164 0.61 4 AA I Battlefield  7  4   65.0 -1
19 Spotsylvania 4 6 4.49 5.51 -0.49 40.1 190 205 0.48 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   58.3 2
20 Broad Run 1 8 1.34 7.66 -0.34 28.2 130 248 0.34 4 AA II Dulles  0  9   18.9 -1
21 James Wood 0 7 0.29 6.71 -0.29 20.3 92 295 0.24 4 AA II Northwestern  2  5   34.4 2
22 Blacksburg 8 3 8.13 2.87 -0.13 74.7 294 200 0.60 4 AA III River Ridge  8  4   63.6 0
23 Lee 1 7 1.12 6.88 -0.12 21.9 118 231 0.34 4 AA IV Highlands  2  6   30.2 1
24 Warren County 3 7 3.12 6.88 -0.12 46.5 232 311 0.43 4 AA II Northwestern  4  6   50.1 1
25 Courtland 5 5 5.08 4.92 -0.08 55.5 160 158 0.50 4 AA I Battlefield  4  6   50.9 -1
26 Bassett 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 11.7 75 452 0.14 4 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   18.0 1
27 Heritage(Lyn) 3 7 3.07 6.93 -0.07 34.7 159 215 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  13  1   84.0 10
28 Jamestown 1 9 1.01 8.99 -0.01 36.7 175 394 0.31 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   30.1 0
29 Jefferson Forest 5 5 4.90 5.10 0.10 51.0 210 213 0.50 4 AA III Seminole  6  4   53.9 1
30 Magna Vista 9 3 8.87 3.13 0.13 60.7 300 204 0.60 4 AA IV Piedmont  11  2   72.3 2
31 Staunton River 1 9 0.75 9.25 0.25 19.8 144 366 0.28 4 AA III Seminole  1  9   19.7 0
32 Charlottesville 6 5 5.68 5.32 0.32 47.9 214 209 0.51 4 AA II Jefferson  10  1   73.7 4
33 Louisa 5 5 4.65 5.35 0.35 35.2 228 240 0.49 4 AA II Jefferson  2  8   24.7 -3
34 Orange 5 5 4.62 5.38 0.38 42.1 173 183 0.49 4 AA II Jefferson  4  6   31.1 -1
35 Loudoun County 3 4 2.59 4.41 0.41 55.3 133 162 0.45 4 AA II Dulles  4  4   56.0 1
36 Smithfield 1 9 0.44 9.56 0.56 34.9 86 268 0.24 4 AA I Bay Rivers  0  10   21.0 -1
37 Caroline 3 6 2.39 6.61 0.61 40.8 155 226 0.41 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   25.5 -1
38 William Byrd 6 5 5.24 5.76 0.76 59.0 303 314 0.49 4 AA III Blue Ridge  6  4   48.8 0
39 Abingdon 7 3 5.92 4.08 1.08 43.6 202 176 0.53 4 AA IV Highlands  4  6   32.2 -3
40 Sherando 3 4 1.87 5.13 1.13 50.5 128 186 0.41 4 AA II Northwestern  2  5   37.5 -1
41 Tabb 4 6 2.85 7.15 1.15 54.8 202 284 0.42 4 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   36.0 -2
42 Powhatan 4 6 2.58 7.42 1.42 23.4 119 176 0.40 4 AA I Southside  11  1   72.4 7
43 Grafton 4 6 1.68 8.32 2.32 54.2 152 275 0.36 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   61.5 3