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1999-19 Team Seasons
A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball
writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s
runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.
Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.
The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses PFALL = Points for PAALL = Points against Projected W = Projected Wins Projected L = Projected Losses
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.
1 |
Manassas Park
|
8 |
4 |
10.46 |
1.54 |
-2.46 |
41.7 |
478 |
235 |
0.67 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
2 |
8 |
14.1 |
-6 |
2 |
Buckingham County
|
9 |
3 |
11.32 |
0.68 |
-2.32 |
45.4 |
487 |
172 |
0.74 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
James River |
10 |
4 |
60.4 |
1 |
3 |
Chatham
|
3 |
7 |
5.28 |
4.72 |
-2.28 |
19.2 |
273 |
262 |
0.51 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Dogwood |
6 |
4 |
38.5 |
3 |
4 |
Appomattox
|
4 |
6 |
6.23 |
3.77 |
-2.23 |
21.7 |
259 |
215 |
0.55 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Dogwood |
7 |
5 |
51.4 |
3 |
5 |
Clarke County
|
6 |
5 |
7.89 |
3.11 |
-1.89 |
30.7 |
309 |
219 |
0.59 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
12 |
1 |
61.9 |
6 |
6 |
Riverheads
|
10 |
2 |
11.70 |
0.30 |
-1.70 |
53.4 |
523 |
134 |
0.80 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Shenandoah |
12 |
2 |
61.4 |
2 |
7 |
Stuarts Draft
|
8 |
5 |
9.33 |
3.67 |
-1.33 |
46.2 |
383 |
271 |
0.59 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Shenandoah |
7 |
4 |
46.4 |
-1 |
8 |
Virginia
|
7 |
4 |
8.04 |
2.96 |
-1.04 |
40.5 |
249 |
172 |
0.59 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Clinch Mountain A |
6 |
6 |
37.6 |
-1 |
9 |
East Rockingham
|
8 |
4 |
8.97 |
3.03 |
-0.97 |
44.1 |
368 |
246 |
0.60 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Shenandoah |
7 |
4 |
46.4 |
-1 |
10 |
King William
|
11 |
2 |
11.79 |
1.21 |
-0.79 |
51.1 |
551 |
237 |
0.70 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Tidewater |
8 |
3 |
41.7 |
-3 |
11 |
Wilson Memorial
|
12 |
2 |
12.77 |
1.23 |
-0.77 |
61.4 |
438 |
184 |
0.70 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Shenandoah |
10 |
2 |
62.0 |
-2 |
12 |
Union
|
8 |
4 |
8.73 |
3.27 |
-0.73 |
44.0 |
367 |
255 |
0.59 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Lonesome Pine |
9 |
3 |
59.6 |
1 |
13 |
Nandua
|
8 |
3 |
8.70 |
2.30 |
-0.70 |
28.3 |
316 |
193 |
0.62 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Eastern Shore-A |
6 |
5 |
15.5 |
-2 |
14 |
Nottoway
|
5 |
6 |
5.70 |
5.30 |
-0.70 |
30.0 |
264 |
257 |
0.51 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
James River |
6 |
6 |
45.0 |
1 |
15 |
Goochland
*
|
13 |
2 |
13.69 |
1.31 |
-0.69 |
64.8 |
558 |
234 |
0.70 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
James River |
10 |
3 |
61.2 |
-3 |
16 |
John Battle
|
12 |
2 |
12.68 |
1.32 |
-0.68 |
53.7 |
397 |
172 |
0.70 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Clinch Mountain A |
6 |
5 |
38.4 |
-6 |
17 |
Giles
|
10 |
2 |
10.47 |
1.53 |
-0.47 |
49.1 |
505 |
248 |
0.67 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Three Rivers |
15 |
0 |
71.9 |
5 |
18 |
Essex
|
14 |
1 |
14.45 |
0.55 |
-0.45 |
62.4 |
669 |
199 |
0.77 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Northern Neck |
13 |
2 |
62.2 |
-1 |
19 |
Fort Chiswell
|
11 |
2 |
11.39 |
1.61 |
-0.39 |
53.7 |
458 |
222 |
0.67 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Mtn. Empire |
12 |
2 |
53.3 |
1 |
20 |
Page
|
0 |
10 |
0.32 |
9.68 |
-0.32 |
4.4 |
96 |
339 |
0.22 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Shenandoah |
2 |
8 |
19.4 |
2 |
21 |
Randolph-Henry
|
0 |
10 |
0.16 |
9.84 |
-0.16 |
-1.8 |
95 |
442 |
0.18 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
James River |
5 |
5 |
39.3 |
5 |
22 |
Madison County
|
5 |
6 |
5.10 |
5.90 |
-0.10 |
24.7 |
232 |
245 |
0.49 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
3 |
8 |
22.0 |
-2 |
23 |
Graham
|
7 |
4 |
7.07 |
3.93 |
-0.07 |
36.9 |
302 |
243 |
0.55 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Mtn. Empire |
6 |
5 |
35.4 |
-1 |
24 |
George Mason
|
1 |
9 |
1.06 |
8.94 |
-0.06 |
5.1 |
168 |
370 |
0.31 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
6 |
5 |
36.4 |
5 |
25 |
James River(B)
|
7 |
4 |
6.98 |
4.02 |
0.02 |
37.3 |
341 |
278 |
0.55 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Pioneer |
5 |
6 |
44.0 |
-2 |
26 |
Grayson County
|
9 |
3 |
8.98 |
3.02 |
0.02 |
45.8 |
428 |
286 |
0.60 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Mtn. Empire |
5 |
6 |
32.0 |
-4 |
27 |
William Monroe
|
1 |
9 |
0.89 |
9.11 |
0.11 |
6.3 |
234 |
554 |
0.30 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
3 |
8 |
22.6 |
2 |
28 |
Lee
|
1 |
9 |
0.85 |
9.15 |
0.15 |
4.3 |
142 |
342 |
0.29 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Clinch Mountain A |
5 |
6 |
31.4 |
4 |
29 |
Strasburg
|
10 |
2 |
9.82 |
2.18 |
0.18 |
46.8 |
423 |
242 |
0.64 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
3 |
7 |
20.7 |
-7 |
30 |
Dan River
|
9 |
2 |
8.78 |
2.22 |
0.22 |
53.3 |
361 |
217 |
0.62 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Dogwood |
9 |
3 |
59.2 |
0 |
31 |
Washington & Lee
|
5 |
6 |
4.77 |
6.23 |
0.23 |
35.5 |
164 |
181 |
0.48 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Northern Neck |
7 |
5 |
37.6 |
2 |
32 |
Glenvar
|
5 |
6 |
4.61 |
6.39 |
0.39 |
26.5 |
358 |
404 |
0.47 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Three Rivers |
5 |
6 |
36.3 |
0 |
33 |
Stonewall Jackson(Q)
|
2 |
8 |
1.49 |
8.51 |
0.51 |
17.8 |
160 |
305 |
0.34 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Shenandoah |
1 |
9 |
19.4 |
-1 |
34 |
Wise Central
|
3 |
7 |
2.40 |
7.60 |
0.60 |
18.4 |
190 |
291 |
0.40 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Lonesome Pine |
1 |
9 |
5.3 |
-2 |
35 |
Central(W)
|
10 |
3 |
9.39 |
3.61 |
0.61 |
49.8 |
399 |
280 |
0.59 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Bull Run |
10 |
3 |
59.6 |
0 |
36 |
Amelia County
|
4 |
7 |
3.36 |
7.64 |
0.64 |
24.9 |
251 |
340 |
0.42 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
James River |
5 |
6 |
36.4 |
1 |
37 |
Floyd County
|
7 |
4 |
6.22 |
4.78 |
0.78 |
41.9 |
388 |
352 |
0.52 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Three Rivers |
2 |
8 |
11.2 |
-5 |
38 |
Bluestone
|
3 |
7 |
2.12 |
7.88 |
0.88 |
13.7 |
201 |
327 |
0.38 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
James River |
3 |
7 |
23.3 |
0 |
39 |
Lebanon
|
3 |
7 |
2.07 |
7.93 |
0.93 |
18.1 |
138 |
227 |
0.38 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Clinch Mountain A |
5 |
4 |
37.6 |
2 |
40 |
Gretna
|
7 |
4 |
5.99 |
5.01 |
1.01 |
45.6 |
310 |
290 |
0.52 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Dogwood |
7 |
4 |
54.0 |
0 |
41 |
Luray
|
3 |
8 |
1.91 |
9.09 |
1.09 |
22.0 |
162 |
289 |
0.36 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Shenandoah |
5 |
6 |
33.6 |
2 |
42 |
Gate City
|
2 |
8 |
0.84 |
9.16 |
1.16 |
24.1 |
170 |
412 |
0.29 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Clinch Mountain A |
8 |
5 |
57.9 |
6 |
43 |
Nelson County
|
2 |
8 |
0.81 |
9.19 |
1.19 |
10.2 |
188 |
462 |
0.29 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Dogwood |
0 |
10 |
10.9 |
-2 |
44 |
Windsor
|
3 |
8 |
1.73 |
9.27 |
1.27 |
17.0 |
202 |
376 |
0.35 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Tri-Rivers |
1 |
9 |
2.9 |
-2 |
45 |
Buffalo Gap
|
3 |
7 |
1.08 |
8.92 |
1.92 |
21.5 |
137 |
299 |
0.31 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Shenandoah |
2 |
8 |
19.4 |
-1 |
46 |
Arcadia
|
3 |
7 |
0.98 |
9.02 |
2.02 |
8.3 |
140 |
319 |
0.31 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Eastern |
Eastern Shore-A |
6 |
5 |
19.5 |
3 |
47 |
Grundy
|
4 |
7 |
1.78 |
9.22 |
2.22 |
7.9 |
201 |
370 |
0.35 |
2 |
A |
D-2 Western |
Black Diamond |
3 |
7 |
12.4 |
-1 |
|