VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2012 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Woodbridge 6 5 8.84 2.16 -2.84 74.6 246 146 0.63 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   76.7 0
2 Battlefield 8 4 10.33 1.67 -2.33 84.4 326 166 0.66 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  6  5   77.0 -2
3 C.D. Hylton 10 3 12.06 0.94 -2.06 94.5 375 146 0.72 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  10  2   95.0 0
4 Manchester 7 3 8.96 1.04 -1.96 66.5 391 176 0.69 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  3   74.0 1
5 T.C. Williams 5 5 6.81 3.19 -1.81 72.7 314 237 0.57 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  4   87.0 2
6 Patrick Henry(R) 8 3 9.63 1.37 -1.63 73.4 323 157 0.67 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  3   75.4 0
7 Salem(VB) 10 2 11.55 0.45 -1.55 96.3 444 134 0.77 6 AAA Eastern Beach  11  3   93.5 1
8 Grassfield 8 3 9.41 1.59 -1.41 93.0 325 168 0.66 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  3   88.3 1
9 Cosby(C) 8 2 9.41 0.59 -1.41 70.0 303 109 0.74 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  4   69.9 -1
10 Oscar Smith 11 2 12.36 0.64 -1.36 102.8 507 169 0.75 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  14  1   105.4 3
11 Franklin County 4 6 5.29 4.71 -1.29 52.5 259 248 0.51 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   53.1 0
12 Granby 9 2 10.17 0.83 -1.17 85.6 271 107 0.72 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   65.1 -5
13 Thomas Dale 4 6 5.17 4.83 -1.17 59.6 201 196 0.51 6 AAA Central Central  6  5   71.5 2
14 Oakton 9 5 10.13 3.87 -1.13 86.7 397 278 0.59 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   74.6 -4
15 Western Branch 9 3 10.06 1.94 -1.06 92.5 429 233 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  2   92.9 1
16 Chantilly 8 4 9.03 2.97 -1.03 89.3 448 297 0.60 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  6   78.7 -3
17 Varina 10 2 11.01 0.99 -1.01 93.6 417 171 0.71 6 AAA Central Capital  9  3   88.1 -1
18 Fairfax 5 5 5.83 4.17 -0.83 65.2 223 197 0.53 6 AAA Northern Liberty  7  4   78.0 2
19 Hermitage 10 1 10.81 0.19 -0.81 94.4 473 105 0.82 6 AAA Central Colonial  9  3   81.6 -1
20 Ocean Lakes 14 1 14.80 0.20 -0.80 104.3 583 118 0.83 6 AAA Eastern Beach  12  1   98.0 -2
21 Woodside 5 5 5.70 4.30 -0.70 63.8 272 245 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   80.0 1
22 Lake Braddock 8 3 8.64 2.36 -0.64 86.2 328 203 0.62 6 AAA Northern Patriot  12  1   105.1 4
23 Patriot 3 7 3.61 6.39 -0.61 61.0 233 288 0.45 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  3   85.4 5
24 Washington-Lee 5 5 5.47 4.53 -0.47 50.8 191 178 0.52 6 AAA Northern National  8  3   85.2 3
25 Mills Godwin 7 3 7.46 2.54 -0.46 73.3 286 192 0.60 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  4   67.3 0
26 Bethel 8 3 8.45 2.55 -0.45 83.1 318 204 0.61 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   71.9 -3
27 Bayside 8 3 8.38 2.62 -0.38 88.2 331 215 0.61 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   77.7 -2
28 James Robinson 5 6 5.36 5.64 -0.36 81.0 308 314 0.50 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  4   88.9 3
29 Meadowbrook 9 2 9.35 1.65 -0.35 81.4 445 234 0.66 6 AAA Central Central  6  5   68.6 -3
30 Stonewall Jackson(M) 9 2 9.14 1.86 -0.14 85.8 377 209 0.64 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  5   86.5 -1
31 Osbourn 5 5 5.09 4.91 -0.09 66.0 227 224 0.50 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   53.9 -3
32 West Potomac 6 5 6.07 4.93 -0.07 65.6 283 262 0.52 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   70.4 -2
33 Gloucester 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 34.8 33 377 0.08 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   50.2 2
34 Henrico 2 8 2.01 7.99 -0.01 46.5 273 455 0.38 6 AAA Central Capital  3  7   50.2 1
35 Frank Cox 7 3 6.94 3.06 0.06 83.9 252 186 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   80.0 -1
36 Colonial Forge 10 3 9.87 3.13 0.13 93.8 343 224 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  10  4   99.1 0
37 Highland Springs 9 1 8.77 1.23 0.23 91.0 325 157 0.67 6 AAA Central Capital  8  3   79.8 -1
38 Centreville 8 4 7.71 4.29 0.29 86.7 307 247 0.55 6 AAA Northern Concorde  15  0   115.8 7
39 L.C. Bird * 14 0 13.64 0.36 0.36 106.0 463 121 0.79 6 AAA Central Dominion  15  0   107.5 1
40 Tallwood 1 9 0.61 9.39 0.39 47.6 112 309 0.27 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   79.2 5
41 South Lakes 3 7 2.59 7.41 0.41 53.2 185 273 0.40 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  6   65.7 2
42 Herndon 1 9 0.54 9.46 0.46 51.4 123 355 0.26 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   49.8 0
43 Princess Anne 1 9 0.50 9.50 0.50 47.4 113 336 0.25 6 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   42.8 -1
44 Westfield 12 1 11.48 1.52 0.52 101.9 495 234 0.68 6 AAA Northern Concorde  11  3   100.0 -1
45 James River(C) 3 7 2.45 7.55 0.55 43.7 159 241 0.40 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   64.1 3
46 Clover Hill 2 8 1.32 8.68 0.68 32.0 110 221 0.33 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   43.6 1
47 Stafford 3 7 2.31 7.69 0.69 74.6 182 284 0.39 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  9   54.0 -2
48 Deep Run 6 4 5.19 4.81 0.81 68.0 250 243 0.51 6 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   44.2 -3
49 Annandale 2 8 1.10 8.90 0.90 46.1 166 360 0.32 6 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   45.1 -1
50 Kellam 6 4 5.10 4.90 0.90 77.8 272 268 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  7   64.5 -2
51 Hickory 3 7 2.05 7.95 0.95 61.8 149 246 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   50.6 -1
52 W.T. Woodson 2 8 1.00 9.00 1.00 53.1 119 268 0.31 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   61.9 1
53 Norview 2 8 1.00 9.00 1.00 52.8 145 327 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  6   58.3 3
54 Forest Park 4 6 2.78 7.22 1.22 65.6 123 175 0.41 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  4   88.4 5
55 Matoaca 4 6 2.73 7.27 1.27 47.3 169 243 0.41 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   57.2 1
56 Osbourn Park 5 5 3.63 6.37 1.37 66.5 208 256 0.45 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   60.1 -2
57 Riverbend 5 5 3.62 6.38 1.38 74.0 197 243 0.45 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   76.0 0
58 Prince George 3 7 1.56 8.44 1.44 37.1 120 224 0.35 6 AAA Central Central  4  6   44.8 1
59 Gar-Field 3 7 1.41 8.59 1.59 51.2 157 307 0.34 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   41.7 -3
60 Kecoughtan 4 6 2.39 7.61 1.61 56.8 181 278 0.39 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   69.4 1
61 West Springfield 6 5 4.37 6.63 1.63 69.9 252 294 0.46 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   59.4 -3
62 First Colonial 5 5 2.79 7.21 2.21 71.7 145 206 0.41 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   64.5 -2
63 Landstown 4 6 1.49 8.51 2.51 65.6 117 223 0.34 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   64.5 -1
64 Douglas Freeman 6 4 3.43 6.57 2.57 69.2 217 276 0.44 6 AAA Central Colonial  10  2   80.6 4