VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2008 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Western Albemarle 4 6 6.11 3.89 -2.11 44.0 247 209 0.54 3 AA II Jefferson  10  2   71.4 6
2 Millbrook 5 5 7.10 2.90 -2.10 46.5 251 180 0.58 3 AA II Northwestern  5  6   59.5 0
3 Poquoson 8 3 9.99 1.01 -1.99 60.5 238 102 0.70 3 AA I Bay Rivers  6  6   49.2 -2
4 Patrick County 7 4 8.26 2.74 -1.26 44.9 313 208 0.60 3 AA IV Piedmont  5  5   43.4 -2
5 Stuarts Draft 5 6 6.22 4.78 -1.22 41.2 292 265 0.52 3 AA III Southern Valley  5  6   52.3 0
6 Skyline 7 3 8.20 1.80 -1.20 48.7 270 154 0.64 3 AA II Northwestern  6  5   53.4 -1
7 Marion 5 5 6.13 3.87 -1.13 21.4 204 172 0.54 3 AA IV Southwest  8  4   47.1 3
8 Nottoway 8 4 8.98 3.02 -0.98 58.2 322 215 0.60 3 AA I Southside  4  6   23.4 -4
9 R.E. Lee(ST) 10 2 10.97 1.03 -0.97 67.0 473 197 0.71 3 AA III Southern Valley  8  4   63.5 -2
10 Brunswick 7 4 7.58 3.42 -0.58 50.0 243 181 0.57 3 AA I Southside  5  5   34.7 -2
11 Tazewell 9 3 9.45 2.55 -0.45 52.6 299 184 0.62 3 AA IV Southwest  5  6   44.5 -4
12 William Monroe 0 10 0.44 9.56 -0.44 17.0 107 336 0.24 3 AA II Jefferson  0  10   18.5 0
13 Monticello 11 2 11.29 1.71 -0.29 78.7 423 210 0.67 3 AA II Jefferson  4  6   42.2 -7
14 Alleghany 3 7 3.21 6.79 -0.21 24.1 187 247 0.43 3 AA III Blue Ridge  6  5   45.3 3
15 Warhill 0 10 0.19 9.81 -0.19 13.4 78 335 0.19 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   25.0 2
16 Brookville 13 1 13.16 0.84 -0.16 84.2 463 167 0.73 3 AA III Seminole  9  3   72.8 -4
17 Bluestone 0 10 0.11 9.89 -0.11 8.0 91 477 0.16 3 AA I Southside  0  10   0.6 0
18 Liberty(Bed) 7 5 7.05 4.95 -0.05 55.2 302 265 0.53 3 AA III Seminole  10  2   78.8 3
19 Fort Defiance 1 9 1.03 8.97 -0.03 19.9 149 332 0.31 3 AA III Southern Valley  4  6   44.3 3
20 Kettle Run 0 6 0.01 5.99 -0.01 31.4 25 283 0.08 3 AA II Northwestern  3  7   32.4 3
21 Central(W) 1 9 0.99 9.01 0.01 13.2 134 304 0.31 3 AA II Northwestern  6  4   41.3 5
22 Prince Edward 6 4 5.98 4.02 0.02 44.3 263 227 0.54 3 AA I Southside  1  9   8.7 -5
23 Grundy 1 8 0.93 8.07 0.07 1.1 160 356 0.31 3 AA IV Southwest  5  6   22.7 4
24 Briar Woods 7 3 6.92 3.08 0.08 71.2 224 166 0.57 3 AA II Dulles  4  6   59.5 -3
25 Martinsville 4 6 3.89 6.11 0.11 42.4 192 227 0.46 3 AA IV Piedmont  2  8   36.5 -2
26 Handley 10 2 9.82 2.18 0.18 71.0 323 185 0.64 3 AA II Northwestern  12  1   84.5 2
27 Rustburg 3 7 2.79 7.21 0.21 36.9 187 266 0.41 3 AA III Seminole  1  9   27.9 -2
28 James Monroe * 13 1 12.64 1.36 0.36 86.5 548 240 0.70 3 AA I Battlefield  8  2   61.8 -5
29 Richlands 9 3 8.56 3.44 0.44 53.9 317 226 0.58 3 AA IV Southwest  10  2   64.3 1
30 Dominion 1 9 0.55 9.45 0.45 36.6 91 261 0.26 3 AA II Dulles  4  6   57.2 3
31 Greensville 4 5 3.51 5.49 0.49 37.2 228 269 0.46 3 AA I Southside  5  6   34.2 1
32 Bruton 6 4 5.49 4.51 0.51 50.0 198 184 0.52 3 AA I Bay Rivers  11  3   67.1 5
33 Freedom(R) 1 9 0.49 9.51 0.51 32.1 146 439 0.25 3 AA II Dulles  2  8   32.3 1
34 Park View(SH) 3 7 2.18 7.82 0.82 26.3 152 244 0.38 3 AA I Southside  6  5   38.3 3
35 Lord Botetourt 3 8 2.18 8.82 0.82 38.3 168 282 0.37 3 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   27.3 -1
36 Southampton 2 8 1.17 8.83 0.83 27.8 132 279 0.32 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   22.7 2
37 Northside 6 6 5.15 6.85 0.85 52.8 216 240 0.47 3 AA III Blue Ridge  12  2   86.3 6
38 Cave Spring 2 8 1.15 8.85 0.85 28.6 122 260 0.32 3 AA IV River Ridge  10  3   79.9 8
39 Tunstall 5 5 3.96 6.04 1.04 47.6 159 186 0.46 3 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   30.5 -2
40 Graham 3 7 1.82 8.18 1.18 27.5 173 302 0.36 3 AA IV Southwest  4  7   44.6 1
41 Waynesboro 2 8 0.74 9.26 1.26 21.9 153 391 0.28 3 AA III Southern Valley  1  9   29.2 -1
42 New Kent 2 8 0.63 9.37 1.37 25.6 108 294 0.27 3 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   22.7 -1
43 Fluvanna 3 7 1.41 8.59 1.59 32.9 156 305 0.34 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   32.9 0