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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2008 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Lafayette 4 6 7.08 2.92 -3.08 42.1 229 165 0.58 4 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   45.5 1
2 Abingdon 5 5 7.77 2.23 -2.77 22.8 259 163 0.61 4 AA IV Southwest  3  7   23.3 -2
3 Sherando 7 3 9.61 0.39 -2.61 48.8 371 113 0.77 4 AA II Northwestern  9  3   80.5 2
4 Courtland 7 4 9.28 1.72 -2.28 73.8 308 165 0.65 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   56.7 -1
5 Louisa 7 3 8.87 1.13 -1.87 65.7 270 126 0.68 4 AA II Jefferson  7  4   55.0 0
6 Harrisonburg 8 4 9.42 2.58 -1.42 60.2 362 224 0.62 4 AA III Massanutten  10  2   79.9 2
7 Hidden Valley 4 6 5.37 4.63 -1.37 46.1 205 194 0.51 4 AA IV River Ridge  7  4   72.8 3
8 Amherst County 12 2 13.37 0.63 -1.37 83.7 473 153 0.76 4 AA III Seminole  13  1   90.2 1
9 Jamestown 6 4 7.33 2.67 -1.33 50.0 234 161 0.59 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   53.5 0
10 Smithfield 6 4 7.32 2.68 -1.32 50.0 232 160 0.59 4 AA I Bay Rivers  8  3   59.1 2
11 Carroll County 5 5 6.24 3.76 -1.24 32.5 222 184 0.55 4 AA IV Southwest  6  4   49.8 1
12 Grafton 7 3 8.14 1.86 -1.14 56.1 249 144 0.63 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   37.1 -3
13 Turner Ashby 7 4 8.08 2.92 -1.08 64.4 290 199 0.59 4 AA III Massanutten  9  3   70.3 2
14 Orange 7 3 8.05 1.95 -1.05 66.7 362 214 0.63 4 AA II Jefferson  4  6   42.3 -3
15 Jefferson Forest 9 4 9.98 3.02 -0.98 71.2 310 199 0.61 4 AA III Seminole  5  5   60.0 -4
16 Powhatan 10 2 10.83 1.17 -0.83 74.4 344 151 0.69 4 AA I Southside  12  1   73.9 2
17 Heritage(Le) 6 4 6.82 3.18 -0.82 60.4 297 224 0.57 4 AA II Dulles  2  8   66.0 -4
18 Christiansburg 5 5 5.74 4.26 -0.74 46.0 220 197 0.53 4 AA IV River Ridge  10  4   74.7 5
19 James Wood 8 3 8.72 2.28 -0.72 61.2 266 162 0.62 4 AA II Northwestern  7  5   53.7 -1
20 Heritage(Lyn) 3 7 3.71 6.29 -0.71 40.3 203 247 0.45 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   45.3 0
21 Eastern View 7 3 7.64 2.36 -0.64 55.7 301 195 0.61 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   45.4 -1
22 Pulaski County 12 1 12.51 0.49 -0.51 82.7 425 128 0.77 4 AA IV River Ridge  2  8   51.0 -10
23 Tabb 8 3 8.45 2.55 -0.45 60.5 315 202 0.61 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   56.8 -2
24 Chancellor 12 1 12.36 0.64 -0.36 92.2 457 153 0.75 4 AA I Battlefield  9  3   67.5 -3
25 Staunton River 0 10 0.23 9.77 -0.23 18.3 87 349 0.20 4 AA III Seminole  5  6   51.1 5
26 Magna Vista 0 10 0.14 9.86 -0.14 22.6 76 363 0.17 4 AA IV Piedmont  7  5   60.9 7
27 Bassett 7 4 7.13 3.87 -0.13 59.3 237 189 0.56 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  8   40.4 -4
28 Park View(St) 3 7 3.10 6.90 -0.10 54.0 183 246 0.43 4 AA II Dulles  8  4   73.7 5
29 Salem 9 3 8.96 3.04 0.04 75.9 267 179 0.60 4 AA IV River Ridge  11  1   92.8 2
30 Broadway 4 6 3.82 6.18 0.18 42.6 230 275 0.46 4 AA III Massanutten  5  5   54.8 1
31 Rockbridge County 6 5 5.76 5.24 0.24 50.9 261 252 0.51 4 AA III Southern Valley  0  10   21.1 -6
32 York 6 4 5.62 4.38 0.38 50.0 261 238 0.52 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   57.8 1
33 Spotswood 5 5 4.57 5.43 0.43 43.3 180 192 0.48 4 AA III Massanutten  9  3   69.5 4
34 Broad Run * 14 0 13.32 0.68 0.68 95.3 490 163 0.75 4 AA II Dulles  14  0   97.5 0
35 William Byrd 7 4 6.20 4.80 0.80 54.8 275 250 0.52 4 AA III Blue Ridge  5  6   51.4 -2
36 Blacksburg 6 5 5.15 5.85 0.85 55.4 230 241 0.49 4 AA IV River Ridge  3  7   50.8 -3
37 Loudoun County 6 5 5.12 5.88 0.88 65.4 247 260 0.49 4 AA II Dulles  8  3   72.6 2
38 Charlottesville 1 9 0.10 9.90 0.90 31.8 74 401 0.16 4 AA II Jefferson  4  6   42.5 3
39 Brentsville 2 7 1.03 7.97 0.97 31.2 135 288 0.32 4 AA II Northwestern  0  10   17.1 -2
40 Warren County 3 7 1.96 8.04 1.04 23.1 185 312 0.37 4 AA II Northwestern  3  7   34.8 0
41 King George 2 8 0.89 9.11 1.11 40.1 151 358 0.30 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   24.7 0
42 Caroline 6 4 4.57 5.43 1.43 63.8 228 243 0.48 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   27.2 -4
43 Spotsylvania 2 8 0.55 9.45 1.45 44.8 136 391 0.26 4 AA I Battlefield  0  10   20.2 -2