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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2008 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Osbourn Park 4 6 6.55 3.45 -2.55 63.6 223 176 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  10  3   96.6 6
2 Woodside 6 5 8.22 2.78 -2.22 84.8 354 237 0.60 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  11  2   99.4 5
3 Bayside 4 6 6.11 3.89 -2.11 64.0 162 137 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  10  2   96.4 6
4 Hermitage 8 3 9.94 1.06 -1.94 83.3 307 134 0.70 6 AAA Central Colonial  10  2   88.6 2
5 Thomas Dale 6 4 7.80 2.20 -1.80 82.2 297 186 0.61 6 AAA Central Central  12  2   102.0 6
6 Centreville 1 9 2.59 7.41 -1.59 52.8 217 320 0.40 6 AAA Northern Concorde  3  7   54.5 2
7 Highland Springs 8 2 9.52 0.48 -1.52 83.9 267 88 0.75 6 AAA Central Capital  9  2   84.4 1
8 C.D. Hylton 7 4 8.32 2.68 -1.32 83.3 254 167 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   73.0 -2
9 Massaponax 5 5 6.31 3.69 -1.31 62.7 282 231 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  10  3   87.4 5
10 West Springfield 8 4 9.29 2.71 -1.29 89.0 527 334 0.61 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   73.7 -4
11 Westfield 9 3 9.86 2.14 -0.86 95.7 382 217 0.64 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   83.1 -3
12 Riverbend 1 9 1.81 8.19 -0.81 43.3 193 338 0.36 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  3   83.0 7
13 Western Branch 8 3 8.70 2.30 -0.70 91.5 293 179 0.62 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   65.3 -4
14 Lee-Davis 4 6 4.68 5.32 -0.68 62.6 228 239 0.49 6 AAA Central Capital  6  4   70.3 2
15 Deep Run 9 1 9.67 0.33 -0.67 80.7 333 95 0.78 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   57.6 -4
16 First Colonial 2 8 2.62 7.38 -0.62 51.3 141 207 0.41 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   67.0 2
17 L.C. Bird 9 2 9.53 1.47 -0.53 91.7 350 175 0.67 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  1   90.9 1
18 Woodbridge 11 1 11.51 0.49 -0.51 98.6 454 141 0.76 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  10  1   99.6 -1
19 James Robinson 5 5 5.48 4.52 -0.48 80.5 305 284 0.52 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  2   95.4 5
20 Meadowbrook 9 3 9.45 2.55 -0.45 91.8 328 202 0.62 6 AAA Central Central  9  1   93.6 0
21 Battlefield 10 1 10.38 0.62 -0.38 98.5 357 126 0.74 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  12  1   108.9 2
22 Clover Hill 8 2 8.36 1.64 -0.36 87.5 399 218 0.65 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  3   69.4 0
23 Matoaca 5 5 5.32 4.68 -0.32 71.5 283 270 0.51 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   68.4 0
24 Lake Braddock 5 5 5.30 4.70 -0.30 67.2 227 217 0.51 6 AAA Northern Patriot  12  3   104.2 7
25 Landstown 4 6 4.30 5.70 -0.30 64.0 200 222 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  5   82.4 2
26 Ocean Lakes 12 1 12.28 0.72 -0.28 100.2 280 98 0.74 6 AAA Eastern Beach  10  0   104.3 -2
27 Frank Cox 7 4 7.25 3.75 -0.25 79.1 180 141 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  4   82.1 0
28 W.T. Woodson 7 4 7.17 3.83 -0.17 77.2 347 275 0.56 6 AAA Northern Liberty  11  2   102.8 4
29 Gloucester 1 9 1.09 8.91 -0.09 56.8 201 438 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   41.5 -1
30 Mountain View 6 4 6.07 3.93 -0.07 65.0 249 212 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   64.4 -2
31 Chantilly 9 4 9.06 3.94 -0.06 95.7 369 271 0.58 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  6   72.9 -4
32 Culpeper County 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 40.8 50 450 0.10 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   30.4 3
33 Henrico 3 7 2.98 7.02 0.02 54.4 182 250 0.42 6 AAA Central Capital  2  8   43.4 -1
34 Annandale 7 4 6.97 4.03 0.03 82.2 332 271 0.55 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   68.9 -3
35 South County 6 5 5.84 5.16 0.16 77.0 244 233 0.51 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  5   85.5 1
36 Oscar Smith * 15 0 14.84 0.16 0.16 112.0 617 116 0.84 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  13  1   102.9 -2
37 T.C. Williams 3 7 2.76 7.24 0.24 59.8 175 250 0.41 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   76.9 2
38 Langley 5 5 4.57 5.43 0.43 71.9 195 208 0.48 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   59.0 -1
39 Granby 1 9 0.56 9.44 0.44 50.9 72 205 0.26 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   52.7 1
40 Varina 12 1 11.54 1.46 0.46 100.7 379 176 0.68 6 AAA Central Capital  8  2   83.9 -4
41 Mills Godwin 2 8 1.53 8.47 0.47 42.7 138 260 0.35 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   62.5 3
42 Stonewall Jackson(M) 3 7 2.48 7.52 0.52 57.9 173 261 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   64.5 0
43 Oakton 13 1 12.47 1.53 0.53 109.7 490 225 0.69 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  6   74.0 -8
44 Osbourn 9 5 8.46 5.54 0.54 91.5 379 324 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  4   86.8 0
45 Bethel 8 4 7.43 4.57 0.57 92.5 304 254 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   78.5 -2
46 Salem(VB) 5 6 4.41 6.59 0.59 69.4 112 130 0.46 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   73.1 0
47 Herndon 6 5 5.37 5.63 0.63 78.3 228 232 0.50 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   58.7 -2
48 J.R. Tucker 3 7 2.33 7.67 0.67 47.2 177 275 0.39 6 AAA Central Colonial  8  2   81.1 5
49 Kempsville 3 7 2.32 7.68 0.68 57.4 186 290 0.39 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  6   72.9 2
50 Prince George 4 6 3.29 6.71 0.71 67.8 219 285 0.43 6 AAA Central Central  1  9   35.1 -3
51 Loudoun Valley 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 51.7 75 310 0.19 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  6  4   81.7 5
52 Forest Park 4 6 3.17 6.83 0.83 63.6 161 214 0.43 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   50.0 -3
53 Franklin County 5 5 4.16 5.84 0.84 65.3 208 236 0.47 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  9  3   83.2 4
54 Maury 4 6 3.12 6.88 0.88 69.4 141 189 0.43 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  5   75.6 2
55 Kellam 8 4 6.87 5.13 1.13 83.0 273 245 0.53 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   67.8 -5
56 West Potomac 6 4 4.85 5.15 1.15 74.8 260 266 0.49 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   57.2 -4
57 James River(C) 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 53.7 134 243 0.36 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   63.0 3
58 Manchester 8 2 6.61 3.39 1.39 85.8 302 236 0.56 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   68.6 -2
59 Fairfax 4 6 2.60 7.40 1.40 66.4 173 255 0.40 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   70.4 2
60 Hickory 3 7 1.44 8.56 1.56 61.9 119 230 0.34 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   61.0 0
61 Menchville 2 8 0.35 9.65 1.65 59.5 123 418 0.23 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   52.7 0
62 Gar-Field 4 6 1.59 8.41 2.41 63.3 135 250 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  4   79.3 2
63 Tallwood 4 6 0.99 9.01 3.01 64.0 68 154 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   48.8 -3