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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2017 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Nottoway 7 4 9.42 1.58 -2.42 37.0 329 170 0.66 2 A 2A James River  4  6   31.4 -3
2 Richlands 4 7 6.36 4.64 -2.36 58.0 208 185 0.53 2 AA 2D Southwest  8  5   62.8 4
3 Stuarts Draft 5 5 7.33 2.67 -2.33 43.4 295 203 0.59 2 A 2B Shenandoah  3  7   31.5 -2
4 Poquoson 10 4 12.28 1.72 -2.28 68.1 346 167 0.67 2 AA 2A Bay Rivers  9  4   60.2 -1
5 Buffalo Gap 6 5 7.96 3.04 -1.96 46.2 393 275 0.59 2 A 2B Shenandoah  7  5   52.1 1
6 John Battle 6 4 7.60 2.40 -1.60 52.9 388 253 0.61 2 A 2D Mountain  5  6   41.8 -1
7 Glenvar 11 2 12.46 0.54 -1.46 67.5 422 132 0.76 2 A 2C Three Rivers  10  2   68.6 -1
8 Greensville 8 3 9.42 1.58 -1.42 44.8 409 211 0.66 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers  6  5   25.9 -2
9 Floyd County 9 3 10.39 1.61 -1.39 56.1 291 146 0.67 2 A 2C Three Rivers  2  8   22.4 -7
10 Radford 2 8 3.38 6.62 -1.38 30.9 159 204 0.44 2 A 2C Three Rivers  12  2   75.5 10
11 Lee 5 5 6.31 3.69 -1.31 48.5 277 227 0.55 2 A 2D Shenandoah  2  8   24.7 -3
12 Grayson County 7 5 7.99 4.01 -0.99 48.5 320 248 0.56 2 A 2D Mtn. Empire  6  3   50.9 -1
13 Giles 9 3 9.94 2.06 -0.94 67.8 442 247 0.64 2 A 2C Three Rivers  4  6   52.6 -5
14 Virginia 7 4 7.87 3.13 -0.87 65.0 270 192 0.58 2 A 2D Southwest  5  6   50.6 -2
15 Clarke County 10 2 10.82 1.18 -0.82 63.7 459 202 0.69 2 A 2B Bull Run  6  4   40.9 -4
16 Central(W) 11 1 11.75 0.25 -0.75 65.2 582 140 0.81 2 A 2B Bull Run  10  2   65.0 -1
17 Fort Chiswell 7 4 7.69 3.31 -0.69 48.7 302 221 0.58 2 A 2C Mtn. Empire  4  6   38.0 -3
18 Graham 10 2 10.58 1.42 -0.58 80.9 423 201 0.68 2 A 2D Southwest  14  1   81.7 4
19 Goochland 12 1 12.51 0.49 -0.51 57.1 508 153 0.77 2 A 2A James River  14  1   79.0 2
20 Arcadia 2 7 2.45 6.55 -0.45 -7.8 250 360 0.41 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A  5  6   22.6 3
21 Gretna 7 3 7.41 2.59 -0.41 52.6 267 181 0.60 2 A 2C Dogwood  9  3   63.3 2
22 Union 13 1 13.40 0.60 -0.40 83.8 482 153 0.76 2 A 2D Mountain  9  3   63.6 -4
23 Ridgeview 9 2 9.36 1.64 -0.36 63.9 337 177 0.66 2 A 2D Mountain  10  2   68.1 1
24 King William 4 6 4.32 5.68 -0.32 16.5 292 323 0.47 2 A 2A Tidewater  9  2   47.1 5
25 Martinsville 5 6 5.20 5.80 -0.20 50.2 338 352 0.49 2 A 2C Piedmont  1  9   18.0 -4
26 Buckingham County 4 4 4.10 3.90 -0.10 25.4 212 208 0.50 2 A 2C James River  5  5   35.2 1
27 Marion 9 3 9.07 2.93 -0.07 65.8 363 239 0.60 2 A 2D Southwest  4  6   33.4 -5
28 Amelia County 6 3 6.00 3.00 -0.00 37.0 295 228 0.56 2 A 2A James River  9  2   53.5 3
29 East Rockingham 7 4 6.99 4.01 0.01 55.4 327 266 0.55 2 A 2B Shenandoah  13  1   78.2 6
30 Luray 11 2 10.98 2.02 0.02 64.0 487 260 0.65 2 A 2B Shenandoah  8  4   57.4 -3
31 Bluestone 3 6 2.97 6.03 0.03 16.8 214 278 0.43 2 A 2A James River  2  6   22.5 -1
32 R.E. Lee(ST) 13 2 12.97 2.03 0.03 73.7 644 324 0.67 2 A 2B Shenandoah  6  5   49.5 -7
33 Nelson County 3 7 2.94 7.06 0.06 -6.1 274 379 0.42 2 A 2C Dogwood  2  7   1.6 -1
34 Randolph-Henry 1 8 0.86 8.14 0.14 1.4 173 398 0.30 2 A 2A James River  1  8   9.5 0
35 Brunswick 3 5 2.66 5.34 0.34 24.9 208 269 0.44 2 A 2A Tri-Rivers  3  7   21.5 0
36 George Mason 6 5 5.62 5.38 0.38 38.7 313 308 0.50 2 A 2B Bull Run  2  7   15.3 -4
37 Page 3 7 2.52 7.48 0.48 25.4 250 374 0.40 2 A 2B Shenandoah  4  6   32.1 1
38 Dan River 5 6 4.46 6.54 0.54 45.2 244 281 0.46 2 A 2C Dogwood  4  6   38.9 -1
39 Appomattox * 14 1 13.44 1.56 0.56 84.2 666 300 0.69 2 A 2C Dogwood  10  2   75.1 -4
40 Tazewell 3 7 2.36 7.64 0.64 34.1 229 354 0.39 2 A 2D Southwest  2  8   13.3 -1
41 Strasburg 5 6 4.31 6.69 0.69 31.0 276 325 0.46 2 A 2B Bull Run  7  4   38.7 2
42 Gate City 1 9 0.30 9.70 0.70 35.3 103 373 0.22 2 A 2D Mountain  1  9   25.7 0
43 Prince Edward 4 6 3.09 6.91 0.91 16.8 305 411 0.43 2 A 2A James River  3  6   22.4 -1
44 Wise Central 2 8 1.05 8.95 0.95 35.2 153 338 0.31 2 A 2D Mountain  4  7   40.9 2
45 Madison County 2 8 0.93 9.07 1.07 14.7 174 404 0.30 2 A 2B Bull Run  3  7   26.3 1
46 Chatham 3 7 1.78 8.22 1.22 26.0 245 432 0.36 2 A 2C Dogwood  1  9   16.5 -2
47 James River(B) 3 7 1.58 8.42 1.42 21.6 197 366 0.35 2 A 2C Pioneer  8  3   53.9 5
48 Nandua 4 6 2.46 7.54 1.54 -7.8 262 397 0.40 2 A 2A Eastern Shore-A  3  7   3.8 -1
49 Wilson Memorial 3 7 1.38 8.62 1.62 31.2 189 373 0.34 2 A 2B Shenandoah  5  6   49.5 2
50 Lebanon 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 26.6 102 387 0.21 2 A 2D Southwest  2  8   15.8 0
51 Bruton 2 9 0.26 10.74 1.74 34.5 120 475 0.20 2 A 2A Bay Rivers  0  4   23.4 -2