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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2011 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Hurley 6 5 8.20 2.80 -2.20 17.6 326 219 0.60 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  6  5   2.9 0
2 Charles City 3 8 4.78 6.22 -1.78 11.0 292 322 0.48 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  5  6   22.9 2
3 Radford 8 4 9.73 2.27 -1.73 39.6 293 171 0.63 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  3  8   18.9 -5
4 Altavista 6 6 7.65 4.35 -1.65 40.5 318 258 0.55 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  10  3   45.7 4
5 Sussex Central 12 2 13.44 0.56 -1.44 47.6 542 167 0.76 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  12  2   51.4 0
6 William Campbell 5 8 6.21 6.79 -1.21 41.1 326 337 0.49 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  4  8   33.2 -1
7 Eastside 3 7 4.16 5.84 -1.16 11.0 202 229 0.47 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  8  4   28.9 5
8 J.I. Burton 9 3 10.14 1.86 -1.14 37.9 500 267 0.65 1 A D-1 Western Lonesome Pine  9  4   35.6 0
9 Parry McCluer 4 7 5.09 5.91 -1.09 8.6 247 261 0.49 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  7  5   29.7 3
10 Surry 3 8 4.06 6.94 -1.06 14.0 301 367 0.45 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  3  8   16.0 0
11 George Wythe(W) 12 1 12.68 0.32 -0.68 48.6 548 140 0.80 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  14  1   59.4 2
12 Galax 14 1 14.61 0.39 -0.61 56.6 667 175 0.79 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  7  5   31.6 -7
13 Thomas Walker 6 5 6.52 4.48 -0.52 22.3 316 275 0.53 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  1  9   -15.1 -5
14 Castlewood 8 4 8.30 3.70 -0.30 37.6 368 273 0.57 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  6  5   10.5 -2
15 King & Queen 2 8 2.19 7.81 -0.19 6.2 206 330 0.38 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  1  9   2.0 -1
16 Middlesex 0 10 0.17 9.83 -0.17 -6.3 108 487 0.18 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  4  7   14.7 4
17 Narrows 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 -4.3 83 385 0.18 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  1  9   2.6 1
18 Auburn 0 10 0.12 9.88 -0.12 -9.8 98 505 0.16 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  0  10   -5.9 0
19 Twin Springs 4 7 4.12 6.88 -0.12 6.4 272 329 0.45 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   -5.1 -2
20 Craig County 3 7 3.10 6.90 -0.10 2.8 188 253 0.43 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  4  7   6.4 1
21 Northampton 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 -13.1 52 427 0.11 1 A D-1 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  0  10   -4.5 0
22 Rural Retreat 8 3 7.97 3.03 0.03 32.1 359 251 0.59 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  7  5   30.7 -1
23 Rappahannock 6 5 5.96 5.04 0.04 27.7 247 232 0.52 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  6  5   23.7 0
24 Franklin 6 5 5.87 5.13 0.13 25.0 307 292 0.51 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  13  1   54.8 7
25 Bath County 5 7 4.72 7.28 0.28 19.3 206 242 0.46 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  3  8   11.8 -2
26 West Point 4 7 3.68 7.32 0.32 8.4 359 463 0.44 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  8  3   33.1 4
27 Lunenburg 10 4 9.55 4.45 0.45 55.0 389 293 0.57 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  11  2   49.7 1
28 Northumberland 8 4 7.51 4.49 0.49 37.5 340 281 0.55 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  1  9   1.2 -7
29 Ervinton 1 9 0.48 9.52 0.52 -20.2 125 377 0.25 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland
30 Cumberland 2 8 1.42 8.58 0.58 33.5 186 362 0.34 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  1  9   3.6 -1
31 Patrick Henry(GS) 1 9 0.31 9.69 0.69 -8.2 120 432 0.22 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  2  9   6.2 1
32 Lancaster 5 6 4.29 6.71 0.71 20.3 282 333 0.46 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  5  6   24.0 0
33 Honaker 10 3 9.27 3.73 0.73 39.7 423 302 0.58 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  13  2   53.8 3
34 Twin Valley 2 8 1.25 8.75 0.75 -11.6 171 351 0.33 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  1  9   -20.9 -1
35 Colonial Beach 3 8 2.14 8.86 0.86 18.1 173 293 0.37 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  7  5   35.9 4
36 Holston 3 8 1.89 9.11 1.11 6.1 207 371 0.36 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  5  6   16.7 2
37 Northwood 2 8 0.86 9.14 1.14 -6.7 129 310 0.29 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  5  6   9.9 3
38 Bland(RG) 2 8 0.55 9.45 1.45 -0.4 112 321 0.26 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  0  10   -8.9 -2
39 Chilhowie 6 6 4.42 7.58 1.58 24.4 257 314 0.45 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  4  7   22.2 -2
40 Mathews 10 2 8.03 3.97 1.97 41.0 418 322 0.56 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  1  9   -4.0 -9
41 Rye Cove 7 4 4.92 6.08 2.08 20.9 222 240 0.48 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   -19.5 -5
42 Eastern Montgomery 3 7 0.84 9.16 2.16 9.8 147 356 0.29 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  4  7   13.6 1
43 Covington 9 4 4.69 8.31 4.31 28.0 313 387 0.45 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  6  6   23.7 -3