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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2011 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Mountain View 7 4 9.72 1.28 -2.72 70.4 333 157 0.68 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  5   83.5 1
2 Green Run 5 6 7.70 3.30 -2.70 68.7 249 182 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   53.5 -3
3 Warwick 6 5 8.41 2.59 -2.41 80.0 311 201 0.61 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   52.8 -2
4 Hampton 9 3 11.24 0.76 -2.24 86.6 326 120 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   82.4 0
5 Brooke Point 9 4 11.20 1.80 -2.20 83.1 490 249 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  6   83.5 -3
6 South County 11 4 13.03 1.97 -2.03 93.4 364 181 0.67 5 AAA Northern Patriot  6  6   80.5 -5
7 Thomas Jefferson(A) 3 7 4.84 5.16 -1.84 39.4 202 207 0.49 5 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   60.4 3
8 Dinwiddie 6 5 7.55 3.45 -1.55 67.4 330 247 0.57 5 AAA Central Central  7  4   68.6 1
9 Nansemond River 5 5 6.51 3.49 -1.51 69.6 204 162 0.56 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   72.4 0
10 Lake Taylor 9 2 10.49 0.51 -1.49 89.2 419 137 0.75 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  15  0   107.1 6
11 Hopewell 3 7 4.41 5.59 -1.41 47.8 186 203 0.48 5 AAA Central Central  8  4   70.3 5
12 Broad Run 8 3 9.39 1.61 -1.39 83.1 348 181 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   69.5 -3
13 Lakeland 7 4 8.31 2.69 -1.31 80.5 352 232 0.60 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  4   89.0 1
14 North Stafford 10 3 11.12 1.88 -1.12 83.1 458 237 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  2   93.8 1
15 Hanover 10 3 11.03 1.97 -1.03 78.3 405 214 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital  9  4   81.4 -1
16 Stone Bridge 10 2 10.99 1.01 -0.99 87.2 368 152 0.71 5 AAA Northern Liberty  14  1   102.0 4
17 Phoebus * 13 2 13.98 1.02 -0.98 101.7 445 169 0.72 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  12  1   93.6 -1
18 John Marshall 7 3 7.80 2.20 -0.80 54.6 267 167 0.62 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   60.4 -1
19 Woodrow Wilson 0 10 0.70 9.30 -0.70 33.2 104 271 0.28 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   35.4 0
20 J.E.B. Stuart 6 4 6.65 3.35 -0.65 48.0 356 276 0.56 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   26.7 -4
21 Petersburg 3 7 3.59 6.41 -0.59 47.2 225 279 0.45 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   40.1 0
22 Great Bridge 6 5 6.47 4.53 -0.47 76.1 316 277 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   46.7 -6
23 Thomas Edison 4 6 4.42 5.58 -0.42 58.7 324 353 0.48 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   55.1 1
24 Yorktown 12 1 12.35 0.65 -0.35 83.5 504 169 0.75 5 AAA Northern National  12  1   83.8 0
25 Massaponax 7 4 7.31 3.69 -0.31 69.1 313 243 0.56 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   82.4 0
26 Denbigh 0 10 0.25 9.75 -0.25 44.8 107 417 0.20 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   48.7 2
27 Norcom 10 3 10.22 2.78 -0.22 86.6 361 223 0.62 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  5   73.1 -4
28 Albemarle 2 8 2.20 7.80 -0.20 44.1 189 302 0.38 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  9   50.7 -1
29 Falls Church 0 10 0.17 9.83 -0.17 18.4 85 385 0.18 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   36.1 3
30 R.E. Lee(S) 7 5 7.17 4.83 -0.17 76.9 339 293 0.54 5 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   55.1 -4
31 GW-Danville 6 5 6.12 4.88 -0.12 57.2 261 240 0.52 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  3   73.9 2
32 Atlee 9 3 9.10 2.90 -0.10 78.3 409 268 0.60 5 AAA Central Capital  5  5   68.2 -4
33 Freedom 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 38.4 62 392 0.14 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  1  9   43.4 1
34 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 15.6 65 426 0.13 5 AAA Central Colonial  1  9   29.4 1
35 Deep Creek 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 43.9 38 395 0.09 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  9   51.5 1
36 William Fleming 1 9 0.73 9.27 0.27 34.1 78 200 0.28 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   39.0 0
37 Patrick Henry(A) 2 8 1.72 8.28 0.28 38.5 161 288 0.36 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   53.6 1
38 Hayfield 8 3 7.71 3.29 0.29 76.5 262 191 0.58 5 AAA Northern National  7  4   67.4 -1
39 Lee-Davis 6 5 5.66 5.34 0.34 65.6 286 280 0.51 5 AAA Central Capital  7  4   81.4 1
40 Huguenot 1 9 0.61 9.39 0.39 38.7 112 309 0.27 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   27.4 0
41 George Wythe(R) 1 9 0.59 9.41 0.41 38.5 124 345 0.26 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   21.3 -1
42 Mount Vernon 5 5 4.55 5.45 0.45 51.7 229 245 0.48 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   45.4 -1
43 Wakefield 1 9 0.53 9.47 0.47 25.5 158 460 0.26 5 AAA Northern National  0  10   20.0 -1
44 Kings Fork 2 8 1.45 8.55 0.55 53.4 154 297 0.34 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   83.7 5
45 Halifax County 2 8 1.41 8.59 0.59 30.8 145 283 0.34 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  3  7   38.8 1
46 Glen Allen 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 32.2 113 368 0.23 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   50.4 1
47 Monacan 4 6 3.37 6.63 0.63 64.3 217 279 0.44 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   49.4 0
48 Maury 1 9 0.25 9.75 0.75 47.2 89 344 0.21 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  6   71.1 4
49 George Marshall 2 8 1.22 8.78 0.78 37.5 127 264 0.32 5 AAA Northern Liberty  0  10   29.6 -2
50 Midlothian 5 5 4.19 5.81 0.81 64.3 234 264 0.47 5 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   62.1 1
51 Booker T. Washington 5 5 4.17 5.83 0.83 59.3 227 257 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   52.8 -2
52 Orange 1 9 0.17 9.83 0.83 32.8 106 477 0.18 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  9   44.6 0
53 Kempsville 1 9 0.15 9.85 0.85 45.9 82 388 0.17 5 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   53.7 1
54 Armstrong 1 9 0.14 9.86 0.86 31.5 80 392 0.17 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   41.8 1
55 Freedom(R) 1 9 0.11 9.89 0.89 43.9 72 385 0.16 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   38.5 2
56 Churchland 3 7 2.04 7.96 0.96 57.2 145 240 0.38 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   56.2 0
57 Langley 5 6 3.98 7.02 1.02 63.0 141 174 0.45 5 AAA Northern Liberty  7  5   75.7 2
58 Heritage(NN) 3 7 1.93 8.07 1.07 64.6 133 226 0.37 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   67.5 3
59 J.R. Tucker 2 8 0.88 9.12 1.12 32.8 160 381 0.30 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   46.7 0
60 Indian River 2 8 0.82 9.18 1.18 52.9 126 309 0.29 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   66.8 1
61 McLean 6 5 4.73 6.27 1.27 63.0 191 212 0.47 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   57.3 -2
62 Potomac 4 6 2.64 7.36 1.36 64.5 158 231 0.41 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   82.1 3
63 James Madison 7 4 5.39 5.61 1.61 74.2 196 199 0.50 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   80.5 1
64 Colonial Heights 2 8 0.26 9.74 1.74 33.6 104 396 0.21 5 AAA Central Central  0  10   19.5 -2
65 Menchville 2 8 0.14 9.86 1.86 54.7 71 343 0.17 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   48.2 1