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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2011 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Liberty(Beal) 10 3 12.23 0.77 -2.23 71.0 415 149 0.74 3 AA II Evergreen  7  5   67.1 -3
2 Warren County 7 4 9.20 1.80 -2.20 56.5 315 172 0.65 3 AA II Evergreen  8  3   67.1 1
3 Southampton 6 5 7.98 3.02 -1.98 49.4 294 205 0.59 3 AA I Southside  2  8   25.6 -4
4 Poquoson 8 4 9.46 2.54 -1.46 73.9 324 199 0.62 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  7   43.3 -4
5 Alleghany 4 6 5.41 4.59 -1.41 39.5 290 273 0.52 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   37.6 -1
6 Bruton 5 5 6.38 3.62 -1.38 49.7 195 158 0.55 3 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   35.5 -2
7 Western Albemarle 6 5 7.26 3.74 -1.26 59.8 331 259 0.56 3 AA II Jefferson  10  2   73.1 4
8 Rockbridge County 9 3 10.22 1.78 -1.22 59.7 336 176 0.66 3 AA III Blue Ridge  9  3   75.6 0
9 Rustburg 5 6 5.91 5.09 -0.91 45.8 205 194 0.51 3 AA III Seminole  5  5   59.9 0
10 Lafayette 9 3 9.89 2.11 -0.89 70.5 441 249 0.64 3 AA I Bay Rivers  9  2   69.3 0
11 Fauquier 5 6 5.80 5.20 -0.80 35.6 250 240 0.51 3 AA II Evergreen  7  4   64.0 2
12 Kettle Run 13 1 13.74 0.26 -0.74 78.5 442 102 0.81 3 AA II Evergreen  11  3   78.1 -2
13 Marion 4 7 4.65 6.35 -0.65 22.9 285 320 0.47 3 AA IV Southwest  7  5   34.2 3
14 James Monroe 13 1 13.61 0.39 -0.61 84.0 669 180 0.79 3 AA I Battlefield  12  2   84.5 -1
15 Richlands 11 1 11.47 0.53 -0.47 56.1 526 168 0.76 3 AA IV Southwest  9  2   54.4 -2
16 Liberty(Bed) 1 9 1.39 8.61 -0.39 25.4 168 330 0.34 3 AA III Seminole  7  5   69.0 6
17 Martinsville 6 6 6.35 5.65 -0.35 41.9 304 291 0.51 3 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   25.3 -5
18 Charlottesville 1 9 1.25 8.75 -0.25 26.8 192 395 0.33 3 AA II Jefferson  4  7   47.4 3
19 Cave Spring 9 4 9.22 3.78 -0.22 60.1 434 312 0.58 3 AA IV River Ridge  7  6   60.8 -2
20 Culpeper County 0 10 0.21 9.79 -0.21 10.3 97 402 0.19 3 AA I Battlefield  1  9   32.4 1
21 Tazewell 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 -3.3 66 409 0.14 3 AA IV Southwest  2  9   14.8 2
22 Brentsville 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 25.2 65 410 0.14 3 AA II Evergreen  0  10   37.6 0
23 Patrick County 0 10 0.05 9.95 -0.05 9.4 58 419 0.12 3 AA IV Piedmont  0  10   5.0 0
24 Fort Defiance 6 5 6.00 5.00 0.00 53.4 278 260 0.52 3 AA III Valley  7  4   58.7 1
25 Park View(SH) 7 4 6.95 4.05 0.05 49.4 314 257 0.55 3 AA I Southside  10  3   56.2 3
26 Waynesboro 1 9 0.57 9.43 0.43 32.1 120 340 0.26 3 AA III Valley  0  10   21.6 -1
27 Brookville * 14 0 13.44 0.56 0.56 86.3 511 157 0.76 3 AA III Seminole  14  0   97.1 0
28 York 11 1 10.37 1.63 0.63 83.4 413 208 0.67 3 AA I Bay Rivers  9  3   65.6 -2
29 New Kent 2 8 1.36 8.64 0.64 42.8 164 325 0.34 3 AA I Bay Rivers  0  10   19.4 -2
30 Handley 5 6 4.31 6.69 0.69 51.0 197 232 0.46 3 AA II Northwestern  3  7   40.2 -2
31 R.E. Lee(ST) 7 5 6.27 5.73 0.73 67.1 245 237 0.51 3 AA III Valley  7  4   62.0 0
32 Spotswood 3 7 2.23 7.77 0.77 35.5 174 276 0.39 3 AA III Valley  5  5   41.9 2
33 Abingdon 3 8 2.20 8.80 0.80 9.2 149 249 0.37 3 AA IV Southwest  4  7   18.3 1
34 Brunswick 1 9 0.18 9.82 0.82 21.6 82 361 0.19 3 AA I Southside  5  6   44.4 4
35 Skyline 4 6 3.12 6.88 0.88 51.0 182 244 0.43 3 AA II Northwestern  10  2   76.5 6
36 Monticello 9 3 8.09 3.91 0.91 70.3 466 356 0.57 3 AA II Jefferson  10  3   72.6 1
37 Tuscarora 9 3 8.05 3.95 0.95 60.1 294 226 0.57 3 AA II Dulles  10  2   77.3 1
38 Tunstall 5 7 3.95 8.05 1.05 37.7 232 302 0.43 3 AA IV Piedmont  8  4   55.8 3
39 Prince Edward 3 7 1.86 8.14 1.14 33.4 195 337 0.37 3 AA I Southside  1  9   12.4 -2
40 Northside 11 1 9.83 2.17 1.17 83.9 327 187 0.64 3 AA III Blue Ridge  7  5   71.9 -4
41 Woodgrove 4 6 2.82 7.18 1.18 38.9 222 314 0.41 3 AA III Dulles  7  4   63.2 3
42 Greensville 2 8 0.66 9.34 1.34 29.1 104 277 0.27 3 AA I Southside  3  7   28.4 1
43 Fluvanna 2 8 0.49 9.51 1.51 36.8 138 413 0.25 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   32.4 0