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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2011 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Glenvar 6 5 8.67 2.33 -2.67 31.6 369 227 0.62 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  5  6   26.5 -1
2 Floyd County 3 7 5.29 4.71 -2.29 20.6 264 253 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  7  4   41.9 4
3 Manassas Park 7 5 9.01 2.99 -2.01 49.9 355 236 0.60 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  8  4   41.7 1
4 Lee 3 7 4.98 5.02 -1.98 28.4 289 290 0.50 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  1  9   4.3 -2
5 Windsor 7 4 8.80 2.20 -1.80 32.2 321 192 0.63 2 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers  3  8   17.0 -4
6 Buckingham County 9 3 10.75 1.25 -1.75 63.2 525 237 0.69 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  9  3   45.4 0
7 Amelia County 12 2 13.71 0.29 -1.71 71.9 483 116 0.81 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  4  7   24.9 -8
8 Strasburg 8 4 9.53 2.47 -1.53 48.7 353 214 0.62 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  10  2   46.8 2
9 Gretna * 13 2 14.38 0.62 -1.38 78.5 472 147 0.76 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  7  4   45.6 -6
10 Giles 10 2 11.38 0.62 -1.38 49.5 421 143 0.75 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  10  2   49.1 0
11 Dan River 9 4 10.25 2.75 -1.25 58.4 402 247 0.62 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  9  2   53.3 0
12 Grayson County 10 2 11.14 0.86 -1.14 52.1 481 186 0.72 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  9  3   45.8 -1
13 Buffalo Gap 4 6 5.03 4.97 -1.03 29.1 203 202 0.50 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  3  7   21.5 -1
14 Fort Chiswell 5 5 6.00 4.00 -1.00 28.4 244 210 0.54 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  11  2   53.7 6
15 King William 12 1 12.82 0.18 -0.82 63.9 549 113 0.83 2 A D-2 Eastern Tidewater  11  2   51.1 -1
16 Union 5 6 5.72 5.28 -0.72 38.6 245 238 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Lonesome Pine  8  4   44.0 3
17 Riverheads 12 1 12.62 0.38 -0.62 63.7 569 155 0.79 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  10  2   53.4 -2
18 Essex 4 7 4.53 6.47 -0.53 28.4 205 234 0.47 2 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  14  1   62.4 10
19 Washington & Lee 10 2 10.51 1.49 -0.51 49.0 439 213 0.67 2 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  5  6   35.5 -5
20 Wilson Memorial 11 3 11.39 2.61 -0.39 62.7 511 296 0.63 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  12  2   61.4 1
21 Goochland 14 1 14.31 0.69 -0.31 78.0 580 189 0.75 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  13  2   64.8 -1
22 Nottoway 3 8 3.28 7.72 -0.28 36.1 250 343 0.42 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  5  6   30.0 2
23 Page 0 10 0.19 9.81 -0.19 7.3 81 352 0.19 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  0  10   4.4 0
24 Appomattox 10 2 10.14 1.86 -0.14 62.3 414 221 0.65 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  4  6   21.7 -6
25 East Rockingham 5 6 5.06 5.94 -0.06 38.4 279 296 0.49 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  8  4   44.1 3
26 Bluestone 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 13.6 46 538 0.08 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  3  7   13.7 3
27 William Monroe 7 4 6.98 4.02 0.02 49.9 352 287 0.55 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  1  9   6.3 -6
28 Gate City 6 5 5.94 5.06 0.06 47.6 226 213 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  2  8   24.1 -4
29 Chatham 1 9 0.84 9.16 0.16 18.6 127 308 0.29 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  3  7   19.2 2
30 Clarke County 7 4 6.72 4.28 0.28 50.9 241 204 0.54 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  6  5   30.7 -1
31 James River(B) 4 6 3.71 6.29 0.29 19.4 223 271 0.45 2 A D-2 Western Pioneer  7  4   37.3 3
32 Virginia 5 6 4.56 6.44 0.44 24.4 184 209 0.47 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  7  4   40.5 2
33 George Mason 1 9 0.49 9.51 0.51 18.0 125 376 0.25 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  1  9   5.1 0
34 Luray 1 9 0.46 9.54 0.54 12.0 117 361 0.24 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  3  8   22.0 2
35 John Battle 6 5 5.30 5.70 0.70 28.4 255 262 0.49 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  12  2   53.7 6
36 Nelson County 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 32.8 175 365 0.32 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  2  8   10.2 0
37 Grundy 4 5 3.15 5.85 0.85 21.5 194 244 0.44 2 A D-2 Western Black Diamond  4  7   7.9 0
38 Madison County 3 7 2.14 7.86 0.86 24.3 192 311 0.38 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  5  6   24.7 2
39 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 5 6 3.98 7.02 1.02 40.6 206 254 0.45 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  2  8   17.8 -3
40 Stuarts Draft 8 4 6.89 5.11 1.11 53.8 266 238 0.53 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  8  5   46.2 0
41 Lebanon 4 6 2.48 7.52 1.52 22.3 140 211 0.40 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  3  7   18.1 -1
42 Nandua 3 7 1.45 8.55 1.55 5.8 139 268 0.34 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  8  3   28.3 5
43 Central(W) 6 6 3.97 8.03 2.03 49.9 188 244 0.44 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  10  3   49.8 4
44 Randolph-Henry 4 7 1.96 9.04 2.04 37.5 233 410 0.36 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  0  10   -1.8 -4
45 Arcadia 4 5 1.96 7.04 2.04 11.0 142 228 0.38 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  3  7   8.3 -1
46 Wise Central 6 5 3.42 7.58 2.58 36.5 292 392 0.43 2 A D-2 Western Lonesome Pine  3  7   18.4 -3
47 Graham 5 6 2.11 8.89 2.89 32.7 178 303 0.37 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  7  4   36.9 2