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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2010 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Mathews 4 6 7.09 2.91 -3.09 15.8 277 199 0.58 1 A A Tidewater  10  2   41.0 6
2 Craig County 6 5 8.90 2.10 -2.90 23.2 316 185 0.63 1 A C Pioneer  3  7   2.8 -3
3 Bath County 6 5 8.30 2.70 -2.30 33.0 229 151 0.60 1 A C Pioneer  5  7   19.3 -1
4 Galax 9 4 11.30 1.70 -2.30 40.5 407 202 0.67 1 A C Mtn. Empire  14  1   56.6 5
5 Sussex Central 8 4 10.14 1.86 -2.14 45.6 454 242 0.65 1 A A Tri-Rivers  12  2   47.6 4
6 West Point 7 3 8.52 1.48 -1.52 27.9 390 204 0.66 1 A A Tidewater  4  7   8.4 -3
7 Hurley 7 4 8.47 2.53 -1.47 24.9 382 244 0.61 1 A D Black Diamond  6  5   17.6 -1
8 J.I. Burton 10 2 11.36 0.64 -1.36 54.2 365 126 0.74 1 A D Lonesome Pine  9  3   37.9 -1
9 Northumberland 5 5 5.55 4.45 -0.55 18.9 243 224 0.52 1 A A Northern Neck  8  4   37.5 3
10 Nelson County 1 9 1.54 8.46 -0.54 23.8 220 413 0.35 1 A B Dogwood  2  8   32.8 1
11 Colonial Beach 6 5 6.53 4.47 -0.53 31.4 251 218 0.54 1 A A Northern Neck  3  8   18.1 -3
12 Buffalo Gap 3 7 3.51 6.49 -0.51 14.5 207 260 0.44 1 A B Shenandoah  4  6   29.1 1
13 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 3 7 3.45 6.55 -0.45 15.8 205 260 0.44 1 A B Shenandoah  5  6   40.6 2
14 William Campbell 3 7 3.40 6.60 -0.40 30.9 222 284 0.44 1 A B Dogwood  5  8   41.1 2
15 Madison County 8 3 8.34 2.66 -0.34 42.7 336 220 0.60 1 A B Bull Run  3  7   24.3 -5
16 Lunenburg 6 4 6.33 3.67 -0.33 36.0 240 196 0.55 1 A B James River  10  4   55.0 4
17 Page 0 10 0.31 9.69 -0.31 -4.1 107 382 0.22 1 A B Shenandoah  0  10   7.3 0
18 Amelia County 7 4 7.27 3.73 -0.27 49.1 251 196 0.56 1 A B James River  12  2   71.9 5
19 Riverheads * 13 1 13.14 0.86 -0.14 61.5 593 216 0.73 1 A B Shenandoah  12  1   63.7 -1
20 Franklin 11 2 11.12 1.88 -0.12 46.4 466 241 0.66 1 A A Tri-Rivers  6  5   25.0 -5
21 King & Queen 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 -5.0 70 472 0.13 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   6.2 2
22 Chincoteague 1 1 0.76 1.24 0.24 -4.7 56 67 0.46 1 A A Eastern Shore-A
23 Covington 6 6 5.76 6.24 0.24 26.9 234 241 0.49 1 A C Pioneer  9  4   28.0 3
24 Rural Retreat 4 7 3.76 7.24 0.24 14.8 284 362 0.44 1 A C Hogoheegee  8  3   32.1 4
25 Charles City 6 5 5.75 5.25 0.25 36.3 332 321 0.51 1 A A Tri-Rivers  3  8   11.0 -3
26 Rye Cove 2 8 1.73 8.27 0.27 2.7 152 271 0.36 1 A D Cumberland  7  4   20.9 5
27 Thomas Walker 5 5 4.71 5.29 0.29 17.5 226 236 0.49 1 A D Cumberland  6  5   22.3 1
28 Cumberland 1 9 0.69 9.31 0.31 12.2 140 368 0.28 1 A B James River  2  8   33.5 1
29 Surry 1 9 0.68 9.32 0.32 9.8 136 359 0.27 1 A A Tri-Rivers  3  8   14.0 2
30 Eastern Montgomery 13 1 12.55 1.45 0.45 61.1 591 266 0.69 1 A C Three Rivers  3  7   9.8 -10
31 Twin Valley 1 9 0.49 9.51 0.51 -16.5 119 356 0.25 1 A D Black Diamond  2  8   -11.6 1
32 Ervinton 2 8 1.47 8.53 0.53 -13.8 167 320 0.34 1 A D Cumberland  1  9   -20.2 -1
33 Northwood 1 9 0.42 9.58 0.58 -7.3 102 324 0.24 1 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   -6.7 1
34 Rappahannock 3 7 2.39 7.61 0.61 20.5 162 249 0.39 1 A A Northern Neck  6  5   27.7 3
35 Twin Springs 6 5 5.28 5.72 0.72 18.6 262 270 0.49 1 A D Cumberland  4  7   6.4 -2
36 Altavista 10 2 9.16 2.84 0.84 57.0 424 275 0.61 1 A B Dogwood  6  6   40.5 -4
37 Parry McCluer 1 9 0.11 9.89 0.89 4.9 74 393 0.16 1 A C Pioneer  4  7   8.6 3
38 Luray 3 7 1.56 8.44 1.44 16.4 166 310 0.35 1 A B Shenandoah  1  9   12.0 -2
39 Bland(RG) 2 8 0.51 9.49 1.49 1.2 95 280 0.25 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   -0.4 0
40 Narrows 2 8 0.40 9.60 1.60 10.9 116 376 0.24 1 A C Mtn. Empire  0  10   -4.3 -2
41 Holston 3 7 1.28 8.72 1.72 1.3 121 246 0.33 1 A C Hogoheegee  3  8   6.1 0
42 Castlewood 6 4 2.39 7.61 3.61 18.5 164 252 0.39 1 A D Cumberland  8  4   37.6 2