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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2010 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Westfield 6 5 8.65 2.35 -2.65 92.3 222 137 0.62 6 AAA Northern Concorde  12  1   109.9 6
2 Varina 6 5 8.40 2.60 -2.40 80.5 287 186 0.61 6 AAA Central Capital  8  3   83.8 2
3 Kecoughtan 4 6 6.23 3.77 -2.23 72.6 201 167 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  4   79.9 2
4 James Robinson 9 3 11.12 0.88 -2.12 96.8 305 119 0.72 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  7   82.5 -5
5 South County 3 7 5.07 4.93 -2.07 61.7 182 180 0.50 6 AAA Northern Patriot  11  4   93.4 8
6 Meadowbrook 6 4 7.99 2.01 -1.99 71.3 255 153 0.63 6 AAA Central Central  9  1   87.5 3
7 Western Branch 2 8 3.95 6.05 -1.95 49.1 199 233 0.46 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   68.3 2
8 Henrico 5 5 6.89 3.11 -1.89 65.2 196 146 0.57 6 AAA Central Capital  5  5   56.4 0
9 Ocean Lakes 8 3 9.80 1.20 -1.80 87.1 331 152 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   86.4 0
10 Oscar Smith 11 2 12.55 0.45 -1.55 96.8 491 143 0.77 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  14  1   112.7 3
11 Hickory 6 4 7.36 2.64 -1.36 69.5 275 188 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   76.0 0
12 Salem(VB) 8 4 9.26 2.74 -1.26 87.1 270 172 0.61 6 AAA Eastern Beach  11  2   97.3 3
13 Manchester 7 3 8.22 1.78 -1.22 68.1 291 165 0.64 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   79.9 0
14 Oakton 7 4 8.05 2.95 -1.05 85.9 299 206 0.59 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  3   94.5 1
15 Lake Braddock 12 2 12.96 1.04 -0.96 103.8 491 193 0.72 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  5   78.7 -5
16 Battlefield * 13 2 13.91 1.09 -0.91 109.0 481 187 0.72 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  10  3   94.0 -3
17 Gar-Field 6 5 6.71 4.29 -0.71 82.0 203 172 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  3   81.1 3
18 West Potomac 6 4 6.70 3.30 -0.70 80.8 347 267 0.57 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  4   93.6 2
19 First Colonial 3 7 3.67 6.33 -0.67 59.7 148 181 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   76.4 3
20 T.C. Williams 6 4 6.67 3.33 -0.67 80.1 305 236 0.56 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   67.1 -3
21 L.C. Bird 11 1 11.66 0.34 -0.66 86.7 388 105 0.79 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  2   91.3 -1
22 Osbourn Park 4 6 4.53 5.47 -0.53 74.3 178 191 0.48 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   46.5 -2
23 Woodbridge 6 5 6.49 4.51 -0.49 76.4 286 250 0.53 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  4   71.8 0
24 Woodside 9 3 9.47 2.53 -0.47 94.1 375 230 0.62 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  1   101.8 1
25 Forest Park 2 8 2.41 7.59 -0.41 60.1 204 312 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   47.2 0
26 Centreville 9 3 9.40 2.60 -0.40 87.3 314 195 0.62 6 AAA Northern Concorde  13  2   109.9 4
27 Patrick Henry(R) 6 4 6.29 3.71 -0.29 60.6 236 194 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  7  3   68.0 1
28 Norview 0 10 0.24 9.76 -0.24 39.9 95 374 0.20 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   75.1 6
29 Hermitage 13 1 13.18 0.82 -0.18 102.7 431 154 0.74 6 AAA Central Colonial  12  1   95.0 -1
30 Loudoun Valley 8 4 8.18 3.82 -0.18 80.7 362 273 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   38.3 -5
31 Kempsville 4 6 4.10 5.90 -0.10 64.7 209 239 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   45.9 -3
32 Stonewall Jackson(M) 2 8 2.08 7.92 -0.08 62.2 226 371 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   59.3 2
33 Langley 6 5 6.00 5.00 0.00 77.2 322 301 0.52 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  6   63.0 -1
34 Annandale 6 4 5.98 4.02 0.02 76.7 226 195 0.54 6 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   52.8 -5
35 Thomas Dale 5 5 4.90 5.10 0.10 68.5 203 206 0.50 6 AAA Central Central  7  4   77.7 2
36 Lee-Davis 6 4 5.85 4.15 0.15 76.3 201 177 0.53 6 AAA Central Capital  6  5   65.6 0
37 Matoaca 3 7 2.81 7.19 0.19 56.7 212 300 0.41 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   65.4 2
38 Bayside 13 1 12.78 1.22 0.22 102.5 442 185 0.70 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  3   90.2 -4
39 Colonial Forge 11 1 10.74 1.26 0.26 98.4 505 228 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  5   63.2 -5
40 Highland Springs 7 4 6.74 4.26 0.26 74.7 179 151 0.54 6 AAA Central Capital  7  3   76.5 0
41 James River(C) 4 6 3.74 6.26 0.26 49.4 228 276 0.45 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   53.4 -1
42 Herndon 1 9 0.73 9.27 0.27 53.6 140 358 0.28 6 AAA Northern Concorde  2  8   57.9 1
43 Franklin County 9 3 8.69 3.31 0.31 77.8 309 216 0.59 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  9  3   76.4 0
44 Riverbend 2 8 1.58 8.42 0.42 46.6 140 260 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   44.2 0
45 J.R. Tucker 2 8 1.47 8.53 0.53 40.4 131 251 0.34 6 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   32.8 0
46 Grassfield 8 3 7.33 3.67 0.67 81.3 309 239 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  2   96.1 2
47 Deep Run 6 4 5.32 4.68 0.68 64.4 153 146 0.51 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   55.1 -1
48 Chantilly 10 3 9.29 3.71 0.71 98.7 337 240 0.58 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   78.7 -4
49 C.D. Hylton 10 1 9.22 1.78 0.78 102.1 305 166 0.65 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  11  1   94.0 1
50 Landstown 6 5 5.15 5.85 0.85 75.8 205 215 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   90.3 2
51 W.T. Woodson 3 7 2.00 8.00 1.00 64.2 183 306 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   57.0 -1
52 Fairfax 6 5 4.85 6.15 1.15 75.5 216 236 0.48 6 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   63.0 0
53 Maury 2 8 0.83 9.17 1.17 56.7 104 253 0.29 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   47.2 -1
54 Mills Godwin 5 5 3.79 6.21 1.21 57.7 140 168 0.45 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   64.3 2
55 Gloucester 2 8 0.79 9.21 1.21 58.1 139 345 0.29 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   63.5 1
56 Menchville 2 8 0.76 9.24 1.24 57.9 145 366 0.28 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   54.7 0
57 Tallwood 3 7 1.54 8.46 1.46 58.6 117 220 0.35 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   52.0 -1
58 West Springfield 3 7 1.30 8.70 1.70 62.8 136 275 0.33 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   60.9 1
59 Cosby(C) 5 5 2.92 7.08 2.08 57.0 180 250 0.42 6 AAA Central Dominion  9  1   88.5 4
60 Frank Cox 6 5 3.91 7.09 2.09 71.7 162 202 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   68.7 -1
61 Prince George 3 7 0.89 9.11 2.11 44.2 130 308 0.30 6 AAA Central Central  4  6   50.4 1
62 Granby 3 7 0.60 9.40 2.40 58.0 102 283 0.26 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   59.4 1