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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2010 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Brunswick 5 5 7.32 2.68 -2.32 45.6 316 218 0.59 3 AA I Southside  1  9   21.6 -4
2 Goochland 6 5 8.31 2.69 -2.31 51.9 313 206 0.60 3 AA II Jefferson  14  1   78.0 8
3 James Monroe 9 3 11.31 0.69 -2.31 68.6 414 147 0.74 3 AA I Battlefield  13  1   84.0 4
4 Handley 9 5 11.07 2.93 -2.07 67.9 337 206 0.62 3 AA II Northwestern  5  6   51.0 -4
5 Millbrook 6 5 7.92 3.08 -1.92 52.2 268 189 0.59 3 AA II Northwestern  3  7   47.7 -3
6 R.E. Lee(ST) 7 4 8.69 2.31 -1.69 54.3 363 222 0.62 3 AA III Southern Valley  7  5   67.1 0
7 Cave Spring 8 4 9.50 2.50 -1.50 69.6 418 255 0.62 3 AA IV River Ridge  9  4   60.1 1
8 Nottoway 7 4 8.48 2.52 -1.48 46.1 276 176 0.61 3 AA I Southside  3  8   36.1 -4
9 Northside 9 2 10.31 0.69 -1.31 75.9 296 109 0.73 3 AA III Blue Ridge  11  1   83.9 2
10 Bruton 8 3 8.84 2.16 -0.84 60.5 317 188 0.63 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   49.7 -3
11 Dominion 4 7 4.77 6.23 -0.77 53.7 299 330 0.48 3 AA II Dulles  0  10   23.0 -4
12 Liberty(Bed) 10 2 10.69 1.31 -0.69 79.1 340 156 0.69 3 AA III Seminole  1  9   25.4 -9
13 Stuarts Draft 6 5 6.66 4.34 -0.66 49.8 299 255 0.54 3 AA III Southern Valley  8  4   53.8 2
14 Wilson Memorial 8 2 8.66 1.34 -0.66 50.9 311 156 0.67 3 AA III Southern Valley  11  3   62.7 3
15 Richlands 13 1 13.63 0.37 -0.63 80.0 663 174 0.79 3 AA IV Southwest  11  1   56.1 -2
16 Poquoson * 13 1 13.63 0.37 -0.63 81.5 430 113 0.79 3 AA I Bay Rivers  8  4   73.9 -5
17 William Monroe 3 7 3.43 6.57 -0.43 31.2 275 350 0.44 3 AA II Jefferson  7  4   49.9 4
18 New Kent 1 9 1.41 8.59 -0.41 26.8 174 340 0.34 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   42.8 1
19 Waynesboro 0 10 0.36 9.64 -0.36 15.4 109 367 0.23 3 AA III Southern Valley  1  9   32.1 1
20 Monticello 7 5 7.20 4.80 -0.20 53.2 343 295 0.54 3 AA II Jefferson  9  3   70.3 2
21 Patrick County 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 12.3 91 419 0.18 3 AA IV Piedmont  0  10   9.4 0
22 Brookville 12 2 12.12 1.88 -0.12 79.8 497 249 0.67 3 AA III Seminole  14  0   86.3 2
23 Warhill 3 7 3.09 6.91 -0.09 30.3 231 311 0.43 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  5   49.7 4
24 Western Albemarle 4 7 4.09 6.91 -0.09 36.2 201 244 0.45 3 AA II Jefferson  6  5   59.8 2
25 Rockbridge County 3 7 3.06 6.94 -0.06 36.3 184 249 0.42 3 AA III Southern Valley  9  3   59.7 6
26 Charlottesville 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 17.9 66 450 0.13 3 AA II Jefferson  1  9   26.8 1
27 Grundy 9 3 9.04 2.96 -0.04 46.7 369 244 0.60 3 AA IV Southwest  4  5   21.5 -5
28 Bluestone 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 3.5 58 499 0.10 3 AA I Southside  0  10   13.6 0
29 Graham 1 9 1.02 8.98 -0.02 18.8 188 420 0.31 3 AA IV Southwest  5  6   32.7 4
30 Kettle Run 4 6 3.89 6.11 0.11 42.2 154 182 0.46 3 AA II Evergreen  13  1   78.5 9
31 Park View(SH) 4 6 3.87 6.13 0.13 28.6 189 224 0.46 3 AA I Southside  7  4   49.4 3
32 Skyline 2 8 1.71 8.29 0.29 34.5 137 246 0.36 3 AA II Northwestern  4  6   51.0 2
33 Martinsville 6 6 5.61 6.39 0.39 48.1 265 278 0.49 3 AA IV Piedmont  6  6   41.9 0
34 Rustburg 2 8 1.57 8.43 0.43 34.0 171 319 0.35 3 AA III Seminole  5  6   45.8 3
35 Southampton 4 6 3.55 6.45 0.45 29.9 198 247 0.44 3 AA I Southside  6  5   49.4 2
36 Tazewell 1 9 0.47 9.53 0.53 17.7 122 373 0.25 3 AA IV Southwest  0  10   -3.3 -1
37 Prince Edward 1 9 0.44 9.56 0.56 9.6 107 336 0.24 3 AA I Southside  3  7   33.4 2
38 Park View(St) 5 7 4.39 7.61 0.61 57.8 262 321 0.45 3 AA II Dulles  4  7   51.5 -1
39 Culpeper County 3 7 2.22 7.78 0.78 41.8 193 307 0.39 3 AA I Battlefield  0  10   10.3 -3
40 Tuscarora 5 5 4.09 5.91 0.91 36.1 220 252 0.47 3 AA III Dulles  9  3   60.1 4
41 Greensville 6 4 4.90 5.10 1.10 45.6 196 199 0.50 3 AA I Southside  2  8   29.1 -4
42 Fort Defiance 5 5 3.90 6.10 1.10 50.0 210 248 0.46 3 AA III Southern Valley  6  5   53.4 1
43 Fluvanna 4 6 2.83 7.17 1.17 38.1 224 316 0.41 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   36.8 -2
44 Alleghany 9 3 7.73 4.27 1.27 64.5 304 244 0.55 3 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   39.5 -5
45 Warren County 9 4 7.53 5.47 1.47 62.0 304 270 0.53 3 AA II Evergreen  7  4   56.5 -2
46 Woodgrove 2 8 0.40 9.60 1.60 25.7 105 340 0.24 3 AA III Evergreen  4  6   38.9 2
47 Marion 3 8 1.35 9.65 1.65 19.8 115 238 0.33 3 AA IV Southwest  4  7   22.9 1
48 Tunstall 3 8 0.96 10.04 2.04 27.0 142 339 0.30 3 AA IV Piedmont  5  7   37.7 2