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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2010 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Eastern View 8 4 10.14 1.86 -2.14 65.3 422 225 0.65 4 AA I Battlefield  5  5   44.0 -3
2 Grafton 8 3 9.52 1.48 -1.52 61.2 259 130 0.67 4 AA I Bay Rivers  9  4   68.9 1
3 Liberty(Beal) 10 2 11.30 0.70 -1.30 80.2 369 132 0.74 4 AA II Evergreen  10  3   71.0 0
4 Amherst County 9 3 10.21 1.79 -1.21 74.6 343 180 0.66 4 AA III Seminole  6  6   57.1 -3
5 Staunton River 8 4 9.15 2.85 -1.15 65.3 345 224 0.61 4 AA III Blue Ridge  7  5   59.2 -1
6 Briar Woods * 13 2 14.10 0.90 -1.10 92.7 440 159 0.73 4 AA II Dulles  14  1   86.7 1
7 Magna Vista 11 2 12.01 0.99 -1.01 66.4 521 207 0.72 4 AA IV Piedmont  11  1   76.6 0
8 Spotswood 2 8 2.91 7.09 -0.91 25.0 217 302 0.42 4 AA III Massanutten  3  7   35.5 1
9 Powhatan 10 1 10.90 0.10 -0.90 64.7 474 82 0.85 4 AA I Southside  10  3   75.5 0
10 Abingdon 6 5 6.69 4.31 -0.69 38.3 279 237 0.54 4 AA IV Southwest  3  8   9.2 -3
11 Loudoun County 5 5 5.69 4.31 -0.69 56.3 206 186 0.53 4 AA II Dulles  9  3   71.3 4
12 James Wood 6 5 6.66 4.34 -0.66 52.6 198 169 0.54 4 AA II Northwestern  4  7   50.0 -2
13 Hidden Valley 0 10 0.64 9.36 -0.64 28.2 116 314 0.27 4 AA IV River Ridge  7  5   60.2 7
14 Broad Run 11 2 11.57 1.43 -0.57 84.3 492 227 0.68 4 AA II Dulles  8  3   83.1 -3
15 Broadway 8 4 8.49 3.51 -0.49 60.8 315 227 0.58 4 AA III Massanutten  12  1   78.2 4
16 Christiansburg 12 1 12.39 0.61 -0.39 83.3 478 157 0.75 4 AA IV River Ridge  12  2   79.1 0
17 Sherando 8 3 8.35 2.65 -0.35 67.3 306 200 0.60 4 AA II Northwestern  7  4   51.0 -1
18 Heritage(Lyn) 4 7 4.31 6.69 -0.31 49.9 209 246 0.46 4 AA III Seminole  6  5   54.4 2
19 York 4 6 4.30 5.70 -0.30 40.6 226 251 0.47 4 AA I Bay Rivers  11  1   83.4 7
20 Smithfield 6 4 6.28 3.72 -0.28 40.6 277 228 0.55 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   30.6 -5
21 Bassett 4 7 4.23 6.77 -0.23 45.7 210 250 0.46 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  8   38.1 -1
22 Turner Ashby 5 5 5.19 4.81 -0.19 42.8 213 207 0.51 4 AA III Massanutten  1  9   32.1 -4
23 Spotsylvania 0 10 0.17 9.83 -0.17 24.7 91 408 0.18 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   27.6 2
24 Louisa 11 1 11.13 0.87 -0.13 76.5 406 158 0.72 4 AA II Jefferson  7  4   59.8 -4
25 Fauquier 8 3 8.08 2.92 -0.08 69.4 337 231 0.59 4 AA II Evergreen  5  6   35.6 -3
26 Chancellor 6 4 6.01 3.99 -0.01 59.5 228 196 0.54 4 AA I Battlefield  7  5   55.8 1
27 Salem 7 4 6.84 4.16 0.16 65.1 250 208 0.55 4 AA IV River Ridge  8  4   64.6 1
28 Blacksburg 3 7 2.65 7.35 0.35 46.6 192 280 0.41 4 AA IV River Ridge  1  9   21.0 -2
29 Orange 7 4 6.65 4.35 0.35 57.2 365 312 0.54 4 AA II Jefferson  1  9   32.8 -6
30 Jefferson Forest 2 8 1.65 8.35 0.35 44.5 177 323 0.35 4 AA III Seminole  9  3   67.0 7
31 Lafayette 7 3 6.40 3.60 0.60 58.2 359 290 0.55 4 AA I Bay Rivers  9  3   70.5 2
32 Pulaski County 5 5 4.35 5.65 0.65 66.2 206 227 0.48 4 AA IV River Ridge  1  10   34.3 -4
33 Brentsville 1 9 0.27 9.73 0.73 26.2 75 281 0.21 4 AA II Evergreen  0  10   25.2 -1
34 King George 4 6 3.25 6.75 0.75 41.5 187 245 0.43 4 AA I Battlefield  6  5   46.9 2
35 Carroll County 8 4 7.16 4.84 0.84 55.1 333 288 0.54 4 AA IV Southwest  3  7   16.4 -5
36 Courtland 8 5 6.96 6.04 1.04 68.6 332 315 0.51 4 AA I Battlefield  8  4   59.7 0
37 Caroline 2 8 0.77 9.23 1.23 35.0 116 291 0.29 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   28.1 0
38 Jamestown 2 8 0.71 9.29 1.29 26.3 129 334 0.28 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  7   49.7 2
39 Harrisonburg 13 1 11.66 2.34 1.34 84.0 484 267 0.64 4 AA III Massanutten  8  3   51.1 -5
40 Lord Botetourt 3 7 1.66 8.34 1.34 34.1 128 233 0.35 4 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   38.0 0
41 E.C. Glass 5 6 3.45 7.55 1.55 54.2 205 274 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  4  6   41.1 -1
42 Tabb 3 7 1.19 8.81 1.81 36.6 120 252 0.32 4 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   40.2 -1
43 William Byrd 4 6 1.92 8.08 2.08 44.3 134 228 0.37 4 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   45.1 -1
44 Freedom(R) 4 6 1.18 8.82 2.82 41.4 109 230 0.32 4 AA II Dulles  1  9   43.9 -3