VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2010 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Chilhowie 9 3 11.01 0.99 -2.01 37.7 402 165 0.71 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  6   24.4 -3
2 Grayson County 6 5 7.72 3.28 -1.72 37.7 350 255 0.58 2 A C Mtn. Empire  10  2   52.1 4
3 Clarke County 9 2 10.62 0.38 -1.62 45.7 357 104 0.77 2 A B Bull Run  7  4   50.9 -2
4 George Wythe(W) 8 4 9.46 2.54 -1.46 38.7 293 180 0.62 2 A C Hogoheegee  12  1   48.6 4
5 Floyd County 5 6 6.45 4.55 -1.45 34.8 288 253 0.53 2 A C Three Rivers  3  7   20.6 -2
6 Gate City * 12 2 13.33 0.67 -1.33 72.0 491 162 0.75 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  6  5   47.6 -6
7 Washington & Lee 6 4 7.15 2.85 -1.15 37.3 287 204 0.58 2 A A Northern Neck  10  2   49.0 4
8 Randolph-Henry 6 4 7.15 2.85 -1.15 36.6 246 175 0.58 2 A B James River  4  7   37.5 -2
9 Manassas Park 7 4 8.11 2.89 -1.11 41.5 277 189 0.59 2 A B Bull Run  7  5   49.9 0
10 Lee 4 6 4.92 5.08 -0.92 31.9 246 249 0.50 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  3  7   28.4 -1
11 Gretna 12 2 12.91 1.09 -0.91 71.9 518 207 0.71 2 A B Dogwood  13  2   78.5 1
12 Essex 6 4 6.87 3.13 -0.87 42.5 237 177 0.57 2 A A Northern Neck  4  7   28.4 -2
13 King William 11 2 11.84 1.16 -0.84 53.0 492 208 0.70 2 A A Tidewater  12  1   63.9 1
14 James River(B) 5 5 5.82 4.18 -0.82 29.4 269 238 0.53 2 A C Pioneer  4  6   19.4 -1
15 Windsor 3 7 3.54 6.46 -0.54 5.6 248 310 0.44 2 A A Tri-Rivers  7  4   32.2 4
16 Fort Chiswell 9 3 9.49 2.51 -0.49 37.7 342 209 0.62 2 A C Mtn. Empire  5  5   28.4 -4
17 Buckingham County 10 2 10.39 1.61 -0.39 49.1 337 169 0.67 2 A B James River  9  3   63.2 -1
18 Glenvar 6 4 6.34 3.66 -0.34 37.0 266 217 0.55 2 A C Three Rivers  6  5   31.6 0
19 Radford 9 4 9.30 3.70 -0.30 56.8 366 260 0.58 2 A C Three Rivers  8  4   39.6 -1
20 Patrick Henry(GS) 0 10 0.30 9.70 -0.30 -12.8 110 401 0.22 2 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   -8.2 1
21 Auburn 0 10 0.12 9.88 -0.12 -0.2 83 428 0.16 2 A C Three Rivers  0  10   -9.8 0
22 Appomattox 5 5 5.06 4.94 -0.06 37.4 216 214 0.50 2 A B Dogwood  10  2   62.3 5
23 Nandua 5 6 5.00 6.00 -0.00 26.3 330 353 0.48 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  3  7   5.8 -2
24 Central(W) 6 4 5.97 4.03 0.03 35.6 228 197 0.54 2 A B Shenandoah  6  6   49.9 0
25 George Mason 1 9 0.89 9.11 0.11 15.9 121 286 0.30 2 A B Bull Run  1  9   18.0 0
26 Giles 5 5 4.66 5.34 0.34 38.3 267 281 0.49 2 A C Three Rivers  10  2   49.5 5
27 Chatham 2 8 1.50 8.50 0.50 23.8 178 338 0.34 2 A B Dogwood  1  9   18.6 -1
28 Dan River 6 4 5.48 4.52 0.52 51.1 232 216 0.52 2 A B Dogwood  9  4   58.4 3
29 Lancaster 10 2 9.39 2.61 0.61 42.5 440 274 0.62 2 A A Northern Neck  5  6   20.3 -5
30 Virginia 4 6 3.30 6.70 0.70 28.2 274 356 0.43 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  5  6   24.4 1
31 Middlesex 1 9 0.30 9.70 0.70 -3.1 104 376 0.22 2 A A Tidewater  0  10   -6.3 -1
32 Northampton 1 8 0.30 8.70 0.70 -1.7 98 343 0.22 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  0  10   -13.1 -1
33 Honaker 7 5 6.28 5.72 0.72 38.8 295 285 0.51 2 A D Black Diamond  10  3   39.7 3
34 Lebanon 5 5 3.57 6.43 1.43 40.7 206 256 0.45 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  4  6   22.3 -1
35 Arcadia 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 0.7 128 382 0.25 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  4  5   11.0 2
36 Strasburg 4 6 2.36 7.64 1.64 23.8 183 283 0.39 2 A B Bull Run  8  4   48.7 4
37 East Rockingham 3 7 0.96 9.04 2.04 7.4 139 319 0.30 2 A B Shenandoah  5  6   38.4 2
38 John Battle 4 6 1.71 8.29 2.29 20.1 141 253 0.36 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  6  5   28.4 2