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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2010 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Monacan 5 5 7.71 2.29 -2.71 56.8 276 176 0.61 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   64.3 -1
2 Atlee 6 4 8.35 1.65 -2.35 70.6 310 170 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital  9  3   78.3 3
3 Hampton 11 2 12.86 0.14 -1.86 104.3 494 92 0.84 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   86.6 -2
4 Clover Hill 8 3 9.61 1.39 -1.61 71.9 278 136 0.67 5 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   76.6 -1
5 Lake Taylor 7 4 8.51 2.49 -1.51 83.6 243 154 0.61 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  9  2   89.2 2
6 Hayfield 8 5 9.37 3.63 -1.37 65.7 280 197 0.59 5 AAA Northern National  8  3   76.5 0
7 South Lakes 8 4 9.30 2.70 -1.30 74.1 324 205 0.61 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   38.9 -7
8 Norcom 10 2 11.28 0.72 -1.28 90.9 388 140 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  10  3   86.6 0
9 North Stafford 5 5 6.25 3.75 -1.25 67.9 249 206 0.55 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  10  3   83.1 5
10 Brooke Point 5 6 6.14 4.86 -1.14 70.8 289 265 0.52 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  4   83.1 4
11 J.E.B. Stuart 5 6 6.11 4.89 -1.11 49.7 251 231 0.52 5 AAA Northern National  6  4   48.0 1
12 John Marshall 2 8 3.08 6.92 -1.08 29.7 137 185 0.43 5 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   54.6 5
13 GW-Danville 5 5 6.00 4.00 -1.00 60.4 251 216 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  5   57.2 1
14 Deep Creek 5 5 5.87 4.13 -0.87 68.1 205 180 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   43.9 -5
15 Princess Anne 0 10 0.84 9.16 -0.84 40.4 171 414 0.29 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   39.8 0
16 Stone Bridge 14 1 14.84 0.16 -0.84 99.0 609 114 0.84 5 AAA Northern Liberty  10  2   87.2 -4
17 Washington-Lee 6 6 6.81 5.19 -0.81 55.1 252 228 0.53 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   34.5 -4
18 Yorktown 9 2 9.80 1.20 -0.80 72.5 259 119 0.69 5 AAA Northern National  12  1   83.5 3
19 Churchland 7 4 7.74 3.26 -0.74 84.7 318 231 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   57.2 -4
20 Hopewell 4 6 4.53 5.47 -0.53 55.6 221 237 0.48 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   47.8 -1
21 Green Run 5 5 5.53 4.47 -0.53 71.7 213 197 0.52 5 AAA Eastern Beach  5  6   68.7 0
22 Booker T. Washington 8 3 8.49 2.51 -0.49 83.1 336 214 0.61 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   59.3 -3
23 James Madison 2 8 2.46 7.54 -0.46 53.7 191 289 0.40 5 AAA Northern Liberty  7  4   74.2 5
24 Lakeland 0 10 0.42 9.58 -0.42 34.5 96 307 0.24 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   80.5 7
25 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.27 9.73 -0.27 18.3 115 436 0.21 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   15.6 0
26 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.21 9.79 -0.21 20.8 83 344 0.19 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   38.5 1
27 Potomac 5 5 5.21 4.79 -0.21 76.2 230 223 0.51 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   64.5 -1
28 William Fleming 1 9 1.14 8.86 -0.14 32.8 107 229 0.32 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   34.1 0
29 Osbourn 12 1 12.02 0.98 -0.02 99.0 535 211 0.72 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  7  4   70.1 -5
30 Halifax County 1 9 1.02 8.98 -0.02 26.0 140 313 0.31 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  2  8   30.8 1
31 Heritage(NN) 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 48.9 32 411 0.07 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   64.6 3
32 Massaponax 8 4 7.99 4.01 0.01 82.4 386 299 0.56 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   69.1 -1
33 Great Bridge 10 2 9.94 2.06 0.06 90.9 432 241 0.64 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  5   76.1 -4
34 Phoebus * 15 0 14.93 0.07 0.07 115.3 650 90 0.88 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  13  2   101.7 -2
35 Woodrow Wilson 4 6 3.90 6.10 0.10 56.2 167 197 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   33.2 -4
36 Hanover 11 1 10.87 1.13 0.13 94.8 484 209 0.70 5 AAA Central Capital  10  3   78.3 -1
37 R.E. Lee(S) 1 9 0.79 9.21 0.21 44.9 136 337 0.29 5 AAA Northern Patriot  7  5   76.9 6
38 Colonial Heights 2 8 1.74 8.26 0.26 35.6 183 326 0.36 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   33.6 0
39 Petersburg 7 3 6.71 3.29 0.29 73.6 285 219 0.57 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   47.2 -4
40 Patrick Henry(A) 5 5 4.69 5.31 0.31 59.3 230 241 0.49 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   38.5 -3
41 Heritage(Le) 1 9 0.67 9.33 0.33 60.1 176 468 0.27 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  7  4   67.1 6
42 Freedom 1 9 0.57 9.43 0.43 60.3 127 358 0.26 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   38.4 -1
43 Dinwiddie 12 1 11.52 1.48 0.48 97.0 434 203 0.68 5 AAA Central Central  6  5   67.4 -6
44 Wakefield 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 28.0 125 368 0.25 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   25.5 0
45 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 9 0.41 9.59 0.59 36.5 94 302 0.24 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   39.4 2
46 Douglas Freeman 3 7 2.37 7.63 0.63 42.8 157 242 0.39 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   42.2 0
47 Huguenot 1 9 0.36 9.64 0.64 31.8 98 330 0.23 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   38.7 0
48 Mountain View 8 4 7.36 4.64 0.64 82.4 261 220 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   70.4 -1
49 George Marshall 1 9 0.36 9.64 0.64 43.7 114 386 0.23 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   37.5 1
50 Falls Church 1 9 0.31 9.69 0.69 27.8 76 273 0.22 5 AAA Northern National  0  10   18.4 -1
51 Nansemond River 1 9 0.07 9.93 0.93 40.6 54 341 0.14 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   69.6 4
52 Bethel 6 4 4.91 5.09 1.09 80.8 298 302 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  4   93.9 1
53 Midlothian 4 6 2.89 7.11 1.11 48.6 144 201 0.42 5 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   64.3 1
54 Albemarle 3 7 1.83 8.17 1.17 48.6 159 277 0.36 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   44.1 -1
55 Warwick 6 5 4.71 6.29 1.29 83.1 290 323 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   80.0 0
56 Stafford 5 6 3.65 7.35 1.35 69.6 179 232 0.44 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   64.2 0
57 Denbigh 4 6 2.51 7.49 1.49 70.3 194 291 0.40 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   44.8 -4
58 Thomas Edison 3 7 1.28 8.72 1.72 50.0 132 269 0.33 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   58.7 1
59 Kellam 3 7 1.24 8.76 1.76 59.6 151 311 0.33 5 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   58.1 0
60 McLean 8 3 6.17 4.83 1.83 76.5 241 220 0.52 5 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   63.0 -2
61 Kings Fork 3 7 1.13 8.87 1.87 55.3 124 266 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   53.4 -1
62 Mount Vernon 5 6 2.78 8.22 2.22 57.7 194 290 0.40 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   51.7 0
63 Armstrong 3 7 0.40 9.60 2.60 45.7 105 342 0.23 5 AAA Central Capital  1  9   31.5 -2
64 Indian River 5 5 2.18 7.82 2.82 68.6 132 212 0.38 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   52.9 -3